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Generally, a sportsbook will move a football line after the max money is reached on one side of a point spread. When that limit is reached, the line will be moved to get more action on the other side.
For example, if the Patriots are 15 point favorites over the Dolphins and the limit of a sportsbook is $10,000, when $10,000 or more is bet on the Patriots (shocker), the sportsbook will then move the line to -16 or -17. If this is the case, the sportsbook then runs the risk of being middled, which is where you can make a nice little profit.
Key Numbers
All numbers are not created equal, especially in football, as there are numbers such as 3, 4, 6 and 7 that are referred to as “key numbers.” The books don’t like to come off these numbers. The biggest key number when betting on football is 3. The most important key numbers are 3 and 7, although 1, 4, 6, 10, 13, 14 are numbers that have a high probability of being the margin of victory as well and are, many times, referred to as minor key numbers.
Basically, since more games are decided by these key numbers, the sportsbooks want to stay on them. The reason for this is that if the sportsbook changes the line off a key number then there is a greater chance that they will lose money on the game, as so many games are decided by one of the key numbers. If you see a line change off a key number, you can be sure that there was a lot of action to make the sportsbook move the line off a key number.
The reason that most sportsbooks do not move off the key number of three is backed by statistics. Around 14 percent of games in the NFL (roughly 1 in 7) are decided by a field goal. What this means is that a bettor can lay 2.5 and then take 3.5, so they have a legit edge over the sportsbook. Obviously the sportsbooks know this and they will try to do many things, such as using a moneyline, to stay away from moving off 3.
Let’s look at the first seven weeks of the NFL season back in 2005. In those games, 31 of 102 were closed to betting with one team that was favored by 3 points. Therefore, it may be hard to find a 3-point middle, but there are still a lot of opportunities out there for you to find.
Finding a middle on the other key numbers of 4, 6 and 7 is a lot easier, but not nearly as profitable. In the past 10 years in the NFL, games that were decided by 4, 6 or 7 points each happened only 7 percent of the time. Since the sportsbook has an edge of 4.5 percent in every 11/10 bet, a bettor will have to be patient or have Lady Luck on their side in order to make a profit from those middles.
Basically, if you see a middle 3, you should take advantage and bet on it. It is also worth the risk to bet middles on 4, 6 and 7, but you have a smaller edge. Even though it looks tempting to lay a wager, it is a good idea to pass up making wagers on other numbers.
The key numbers will not change often, as sportsbooks want to give themselves the best chance of making money. These are stats that show why key numbers are what they are and why they do not change. Remember, sportsbooks don’t like to move off of key numbers as it increases the chance that they will lose money. |
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