Underdogs Betting Strategy Guide: How to Profit from Betting Against Favorites

How to Profit from Betting Against Favorites

Betting on underdogs can be a highly profitable strategy, especially in sports betting, where the odds are often skewed in favor of the favorites. However, it takes a well-informed and strategic approach to make consistent profits from underdog betting.

In this Underdogs Betting Strategy Guide, we will explore the best practices and tips for betting on underdogs and against favorites.

Understanding the Odds: Why Underdogs Can Be Profitable Bets

Before delving into the specifics of underdog betting, it is important to understand why underdogs can be profitable bets. In sports betting, the odds are determined by the bookmakers based on various factors such as the teams’ past performances, player injuries, and the public perception of the teams. Bookmakers often set the odds in favor of the favorites to attract more bets and balance the books.

However, this creates an opportunity for savvy bettors to profit from betting on underdogs. When the odds are heavily skewed in favor of the favorites, the underdogs’ odds become inflated, presenting a higher potential payout for those who bet on them.

Betting on underdogs also carries a lower risk as the favorites are not guaranteed to win every time.

Tips for Betting on Underdogs

1. Analyze the Teams’ Recent Performances

When betting on underdogs, it is crucial to analyze the teams’ recent performances to identify any trends or patterns that could impact the outcome of the game.

Look at factors such as injuries, player suspensions, and recent wins or losses. It is also essential to consider the head-to-head record of the teams, as some teams may have a historical advantage over their opponents.

2. Look for Value in the Odds

When betting on underdogs, it is important to look for value in the odds. Do not simply bet on the team with the highest odds, as this does not guarantee a profitable outcome. Instead, look for underdogs whose odds are undervalued, meaning the odds are higher than they should be based on the team’s actual chances of winning.

This requires a bit of research and analysis, but it can lead to more profitable betting outcomes.

3. Consider the Betting Public’s Perception

The public’s perception of a team can heavily influence the odds, especially for popular teams or high-profile games. When betting on underdogs, it is important to consider how the public perceives the teams and factor this into your betting strategy.

If the public is heavily favoring the favorites, this may create an opportunity to bet on the underdogs with higher odds.

4. Utilize Different Betting Markets

In addition to the traditional betting markets, there are various other betting markets that offer opportunities to bet on underdogs. For example, handicap betting allows you to bet on the underdogs with a handicap, meaning they must lose by less than a certain number of points for your bet to be successful.

Similarly, total goals betting allows you to bet on the underdogs to score a certain number of goals, regardless of the final outcome of the game.

5. Use a Betting System or Strategy

To maximize your profits from underdog betting, it is recommended to use a betting system or strategy that aligns with your betting style and objectives.

This could involve using a specific betting model or software that analyzes the teams’ statistics and past performances, or following a specific set of rules or guidelines for your bets.

The Kelly Criterion

One popular betting system that can be used for underdog betting is the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps you determine the optimal bet size based on the odds and your perceived edge. By using the Kelly Criterion, you can maximize your profits while minimizing your risk of ruin.

Example of the Kelly Criterion:

Let’s say you have analyzed a game and determined that the underdogs have a 40% chance of winning, and their odds are +200 (3.00 in decimal odds).

Using the Kelly Criterion, you can calculate the optimal bet size as follows:

  • Optimal Bet Size = (40% x 3.00 – 60%) / 3.00 = 0.07

This means that you should bet 7% of your bankroll on the underdogs. If your bankroll is $1,000, then your bet size would be $70.

It is important to note that the Kelly Criterion is just one example of a betting system that can be used for underdog betting. There are various other systems and strategies out there, so it is important to do your research and find the one that works best for you.

Benefits of Underdog Betting

Aside from the potential for higher payouts, there are other benefits to underdog betting. For one, it can make watching the game more exciting, as you are rooting for the underdog to pull off an upset. It can also be a great way to diversify your betting portfolio, as betting on underdogs can provide a hedge against losses in other bets.

Additionally, underdog betting can be a more sustainable betting strategy in the long run. By focusing on underdogs, you are not relying on winning every bet to make a profit. Instead, you are looking for value in the odds and taking calculated risks, which can lead to more consistent profits over time.

Potential Risks of Underdog Betting

While underdog betting can be a profitable strategy, it is important to be aware of the potential risks involved. For one, betting on underdogs requires a higher level of research and analysis than betting on favorites. You need to be able to identify undervalued underdogs and understand the factors that could impact the outcome of the game.

Additionally, underdog betting can be more volatile than betting on favorites. Underdogs are not expected to win every time, so there will be more losses than wins. However, if you are able to identify the right underdogs and manage your bankroll effectively, the potential for profits can outweigh the risks.

Mastering the Art of Underdog Betting

Betting on underdogs can be a profitable and exciting betting strategy for sports bettors who are willing to put in the research and analysis required to identify undervalued underdogs.

By analyzing the teams’ recent performances, looking for value in the odds, considering the public’s perception, utilizing different betting markets, and using a betting system or strategy, bettors can increase their chances of making consistent profits from underdog betting.

However, it is important to remember that underdog betting is not a guaranteed way to make money. It requires a certain level of skill, knowledge, and risk management to be successful. As with any form of gambling, it is important to gamble responsibly and only bet with money you can afford to lose.

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Underdog Betting FAQs

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps you determine the optimal bet size based on the odds and your perceived edge. It can be used for underdog betting by calculating the optimal bet size based on the underdog’s odds and your perceived chances of winning.

To determine if an underdog’s odds are undervalued, you need to analyze the teams’ recent performances, consider the public’s perception of the teams, and compare the odds to the teams’ actual chances of winning.

Yes, there are risks involved in underdog betting. Underdog betting requires a higher level of research and analysis than betting on favorites, and there will be more losses than wins. However, if you are able to identify the right underdogs and manage your bankroll effectively, the potential for profits can outweigh the risks.

Handicap betting allows you to bet on the underdogs with a handicap, meaning they must lose by less than a certain number of points for your bet to be successful. It can be used for underdog betting by betting on the underdogs with a handicap that you believe they can overcome.



Yes, underdog betting can be a more sustainable betting strategy in the long run. By focusing on underdogs, you are not relying on winning every bet to make a profit. Instead, you are looking for value in the odds and taking calculated risks, which can lead to more consistent profits over time.