The National Basketball Association is the premier source for top-level basketball, both in terms of entertainment and competitions.
The NBA has long kept track of stats but has also added in different metrics over time, whether that be assists in 1946-47, steals and blocks in the 1973-74 season, or even individual player tracking in 2013-14.
Stats have boomed in the modern era of basketball, which has been facilitated by the ruleset as well as overall improvements in training and technology, all of which have led to the pace of play— and individual numbers— shooting through the roof.
Many traditionalists will say that the inflated stats have no bearing on what goes on in the NBA, but in all truth, that is completely inaccurate.
Betting on players using stats
NBA player stats can be excellent indicators for bettors in the prop market, and to a lesser degree, the team market.
Gamblers can get a leg up on player props by closely examining a player’s statistical history; for example, let’s say that Frankie Frankerton’s rebound line has been set at 8.5. That player may only be averaging 7.4 rebounds per game, but in four games against the upcoming opponent, he averaged 12.3, setting him up for success once again. Of course, there could be qualitative explanations for this, such as he was playing more due to a teammate’s injury, or the team that he is facing does not have any glass-cleaning big men, but regardless, a statistical analysis will reveal what many bettors do not see.
As far as team results, analyzing how key players have performed recently, against their upcoming opponent, and similar opponents could indicate how the key players are going to perform in their impending match, which could paint a picture of what is going to happen in the game.
Advantages of betting on the NBA with stats
Using stats to calculate bets does not guarantee their success, but it at least eliminates the randomness of selecting a 50/50 wager.
For example, just because Albert Albertson has gone over his upcoming points total in 15 straight games does not guarantee that he will continue to carry a hot hand, but it does inform the bettor that he has been scoring extremely effectively.
Perhaps this means the opponent will key in on him and limit his touches, or maybe it means that he is tired and is due for an off night— again, there are no guarantees in betting, but using stats to calculate bets will help gamblers beat the NBA odds more times than not.
NBA Stats Frequently Asked Questions
That is the million-dollar question: if your statistical analysis has led you to an incomplete conclusion, it is best to leave that line behind and look for a new one.
NBA betting guides do a nice job of displaying the top storylines and important information, but they do not always point out the biggest chance for bettors to capitalize. Bettors want to look for, simply put, what stands out, as that is usually the best place to strike gold.
Bettors using NBA stats should first find a game they are interested in wagering on before beginning their analysis; from there, again, look for what stands out and what is inconclusive to help guide your bets.