Analyzing NCAAF Teams: Critical Stats and Strategies
NCAA Football is a completely different beast than the National Football League simply due to the emphasis on imbalanced schedules and college football being built on the coaching while top talent runs the NFL. Today, we are going to be diving into some critical stats to determine a solid program and one of the lesser teams in all of college football. Most of the stats are similar to what the NFL focuses on so let’s get into it!
Offensively, one of the biggest numbers to focus on is the third-down percentage. It is a tell-tale sign of if a drive will continue or if they will be forced to give the ball away from their opponent. Third-down conversions typically are a killer for an opposing defense as they feel like it can be a momentum swing and get the opposing offense on the field. Calculating this is extremely simple as you take the number of times you get a first down on a third-down play and divide that by the total number of third downs the offense takes on.
On the defensive side of things, an opponent’s scoring percentage is the most important number to tell if a defense is dominating. To calculate this number, you take the number of drives that the defense gives up points and divide that by the total amount of drives. The higher the percentage, the worse a defense is going to be. You can even dissect this further and do it with touchdown percentage where instead of accounting for field goals, this only tells when the defense gives up six points.
Special teams are simply put in either field goal percentage as kicking is a difficult thing and is simply the number of field goals made divided by the number of field goals attempted. However, with special teams, I love to look at the touchback percentage. This is on kickoffs as things can break down relatively quickly and if you have a kicker that can kick it out of the end zone at a high rate, the opponents cannot return a kick for extra yards or even a touchdown and it forces them to march down the field to score.
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A college football conference is a group of universities and colleges that come together to compete against each other in football. These conferences organize and schedule games among their member schools and often have their own championship games.
There are several college football conferences in the United States, with the exact number varying over time due to realignment and changes. As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, there were five major "Power Five" conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC), in addition to numerous smaller conferences, including the AAC, Sun Belt, MAC, and more.
The "Power Five" conferences in college football are considered the most prestigious and competitive. They include the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference, and Southeastern Conference (SEC). Teams in these conferences often receive more media coverage and have a higher chance of participating in major postseason bowl games and the College Football Playoff.
College football teams are typically ranked based on their performance, including factors such as wins and losses, strength of schedule, and individual player statistics. Various organizations and committees release weekly rankings, such as the College Football Playoff Rankings, Associated Press (AP) Poll, and Coaches Poll, to gauge the performance of teams throughout the season.
The College Football Playoff is a postseason tournament that determines the national champion in college football. It typically includes four of the top-ranked teams in the country, as selected by a committee, and consists of two semifinal games and a national championship game. The CFP has become a prominent feature of the college football postseason, with the winner being crowned the national champion.