Two rising heavyweight contenders aim to move up the rankings on Saturday night. Heavy-handed Efe Ajagba faces multiple-time amateur champion, Stephan Shaw. Shaw was set to fight on the undercard but is stepping in as a late injury replacement.
We’ll review both fighters’ records and the important information before giving you our Ajagba vs Shaw best bets.
Efe Ajagba vs. Stephan Shaw Information
Efe Ajagba (16-1, 13 KOs) vs. Stephan Shaw (18-0, 13 KOs)
Weight Class/Rounds: Heavyweight, 10-Rounds
Location of the fight: Turning Stone Resort Casino, Verona, New York
Date: Saturday, 14th January, 10:00 PM ET. Main event – midnight ET.
How to watch: ESPN | ESPN+ | ESPN Desportes
Last Fight Record
Efe Ajagba won his last fight on August 27th, dropping Jozsef Darmos twice in the second round to pick up the TKO victory. This was a bounce-back victory for Ajagba. He suffered his first career loss to Frank Sanchez in his first title fight via a one-sided unanimous decision.
Stephan Shaw defeated Rydell Booker via a unanimous decision on November 11th, 2022, to improve his record to 18-0. Shaw’s victory over Booker is the most notable victory on his record.
Efe Ajagba vs. Stephan Shaw Analysis
Efe Ajagba is the 2014 Commonwealth Games Bronze medalist and enters Saturday night’s main event with a 16-1 record (13 KOs). He needs a big win against a similarly ranked fighter for Top Rank to keep lining up fights and move the hard-hitting Nigerian up the rankings and toward another title fight. Ajagba is currently the 32nd-ranked heavyweight in the world.
Ajagaba stands 6’6″ and has an 85″ reach, giving him a 4-inch reach advantage over Shaw. Ajagba will need to effectively use his reach advantage to control the fight and distance with his jab to set up his power punches. Ajagba needs this win, or he will see future potential main events and paydays disappear.
Notable from Ajagba’s career to be factored into our Ajagba vs Shaw best bets is the fact that Ajagba has been knocked down twice in his career. The first time was by Iago Kiladze in the third round – who Ajagba defeated by KO in the fifth round. The second one was by Frank Sanchez in the seventh round. With Ajagba having been knocked down in his career, he will need to utilize his size and reach advantage to avoid Shaw’s power punches and hitting the canvas for the third time.
Last minute changes
Stephan Shaw was originally set to fight Guido Vianello on the undercard for this fight, stepping in for Oscar Rivas, who pulled out of the fight with Ajagba with a back injury.
Even though he is taking this on short notice, Shaw will be in fighting shape. Stephan will be giving Ajagba a very stiff test on Saturday night. Stephan Shaw is the 28th-ranked heavyweight in the world, with an 18-0 record, stands 6’4′, and has an 81″ reach.
Shaw is a four-time amateur national championship and is riding a nine-fight winning streak, including 8 KO/TKO’s. Shaw has not been knocked down in his professional career.
Odds Breakdown
Before we give you our Ajagba vs Shaw best bets or make any boxing predictions, we need to review what the oddsmakers think.
Despite taking the fight on short notice, Stephan Shaw is the Moneyline favorite, listed at -125 odds. Efe Ajagba is listed at -105.
If you like total rounds wagers when you bet on boxing, the total rounds for Ajagba vs Shaw is set to 8.5 rounds, with the over listed at -200 and the under listed at +165. This total rounds line speaks to the durability expected from both fighters.
There are many prop betting lines, including either fighter to win in certain rounds, draws, and individual lines on each fighter to win in a specific round. There are too many options to list here. We recommend exploring all the Ajagba vs Shaw prop betting lines available and finding your favorite prop bet picks for boxing tonight before the lines shift too much.
However, we will list a few specific prop bets here.
The line for the fight to go the distance and be determined by the scorecards is set at -165, while the odds for the fight ending before the final bell are listed at +135.
The odds for Ajagba to win via KO, TKO, or DQ are listed at +300, while Ajagaba to win via decision is set at +375. Shaw to win via KO, TKO, or DQ is listed at +450, while Shaw to win via decision is listed at +125. A draw is listed at +1100.
Efe Ajagba vs. Stephan Shaw Betting Pick and Prediction
Efe Ajagba might be the “A-side” of the fight line-up, but Stephen Shaw is the betting favorite. The first of our Ajagba vs Shaw best bets is to take Stephan Shaw to win outright at -125. Ajagba needs to prove himself against similarly ranked and skilled opponents. He fell very short in his first true test against Sanchez, losing the chance to capture the WBC Continental Americas and WBO NABO Heavyweight titles in the process.
Ajagba has big punching power, and all heavyweight fights can end in the blink of an eye with one well-placed shot. However, we think Shaw has the advantage overall and should pull out the victory. We’ll take Shaw to win at -125.
This fight is likely to go the distance (-165). However, we think Shaw has a good chance of dropping, if not stopping Ajagba before the 10-rounds conclude. In our Ajagba vs Shaw best bets, we’re going to take Shaw to end this fight via TKO at +450 and for the fight to end before the final bell in the tenth round (+135).
Ajagba vs Shaw best bets: Stephan Shaw to win (-125), Shaw via KO/TKO (+450), and No on the Fight to Go the distance (+135).
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