There’s no denying that this Saturday, the boxing world has its eyes on the heavyweight title clash happening in Saudi Arabia—the Rage on the Red Sea between Oleksandr Usyk and Anthony Joshua.
However, spare a thought for another quality boxing match going down on August 20th, a little further West in San Diego.
Emanuel Navarrete squares up against Eduardo Baez in a clash of the 27-year-old Mexicans in the featherweight division. With the WBO Featherweight Belt up for grabs, expect this to be an entertaining match.
Navarrete’s Comeback
Navarrete returning to the ring for the first time this year to defend his title makes any Navarrete vs. Baez predictions a little hard to forecast.
Below is our analysis of previous form, fighting style, and what boxing odds are being offered in this match-up.
Fighters’ Previous Fights Performance
Navarrete Performance Recap
Prior to stepping away from the ring for a brief hiatus, Emanuel Navarrete was in hot form. The young Mexican fought nine world title fights over a period of three and a half years, coming through each undefeated to hold the WBO Featherweight Belt.
With a record of 35-1-0, and his only defeat coming under controversial circumstances in his first year as a professional, Navarrete is essentially undefeated across his nine-year career.
However, Navarrete is coming into this fight a little rusty. His latest fight was in November 2021, and despite stating that he’s had one of the best camps of his life and is in great shape physically, there’s always a risk of fighters returning to the ring a little rusty after time off.
Baez Performance Recap
Eduardo Baez, on the other hand, holds a more modest record of 21-2-2. Debuting the same year as Navarrete, Baez has had one previous title fight for the WBO NABO Super Bantamweight belt against Ra’eese Aleem last November, which he lost by way of unanimous decision.
Since then, Baez has recovered momentum in his career, securing a solid win over Jose Enrique Vivas, getting the better of a unanimous decision this time in Las Vegas earlier this year.
Navarrete vs. Baez Betting Analysis
While there’s no doubt this will be an entertaining fight between two compatriots eager to prove themselves in front of a strong crowd in San Diego, it’s tough to look past the fact that Baez is severely outmatched in this one.
Navarrete Analysis
The first thing to know about Emanuel Navarrete when considering your boxing picks is he rarely goes the distance.
Of the 35 fights the Mexican has won, 29 of those have been by way of knockout. With Navarrete holding a two-inch reach advantage over Baez and what appears to be a significant advantage on the power front as well, he will be looking to finish this fight early as well.
Navarrete Career’s Next Step
In fact, it seems as though Navarrete is already looking beyond the result of this fight to the next step in his career, stating,
“I would like to unify with any one of the other 126-pound champions. After that, going up to 130-pounds, where I could face Oscar Valdez. That would be a fight I’d love very much.”
Clearly, Navarrete is confident in his ability to use this fight against Baez as a stepping stone. His time away from the ring has enabled him to work on his physique, and the 27-year-old will be eager to get a good warm-up out of the clash with Baez but ultimately come away unscathed and ready for the next big thing.
Baez Analysis
Let’s be clear: Eduardo Baez is no easy beat. Only twice in his career has Baez walked away from the ring unsuccessful and has consistently proven himself to be a tough, nuggety competitor. However, two areas of concern exist in Baez’s game.
Firstly, Baez lacks the punching power to trouble Navarrete. Of the 21 wins to his name, only a third have come by way of knockout—a surprisingly low figure in professional boxing.
Baez’s Game Plan
Baez’s game plan is typically to stay on the outside and pick off enough points to win a decision. However, with Navarrete’s reach advantage, superior skill, and lethal knockout rate, this is a risky game plan to be executing.
Secondly, Baez isn’t the best defensive fighter. He makes up for this by being a tough competitor with a strong chin, but against a boxer like this, the ability to take a hit alone is not likely to produce a favorable outcome.
For the underdog to win this one, it will take something pretty special from Baez.
Navarrete vs. Baez Betting Preview
Bookmakers are offering fair odds to reflect the discrepancy between these two countrymen. Eduardo Baez is given a little over a one in ten shot at coming away victorious, with a moneyline of +600.
At the same time, Navarrete stands as the overwhelming favorite, with a more than 90% chance of picking up a win on a moneyline of -1000.
The reality is, as Navarrete is coming off a brief stint away from the ring, the bookies are really viewing this one as a warm-up match for him.
Navarrete vs. Baez Betting Prediction
Chances are, Navarrete will take a few rounds to get going here. The Mexican will be looking to brush off any cobwebs and get into his boxing systems again, getting a few minutes under his belt initially.
With his desire to move up a weight class, there’s a chance that Navarrete’s physique will be a little imbalanced for this match, and the fighter will take a round or two to get into the flow of things.
Who to Bet On?
However, it’s hard to see a world where this contest ends in anything other than a Navarrete knockout. Perhaps it will take a couple of rounds for the favorite to get back into the swing of things, but expect Baez to be hitting the deck somewhere between rounds three and five in this fight.
Boxing Pick: Navarrete by KO (-105)
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.