It’s been ten months, but Vasiliy Lomachenko (16-2, 11 KOs) is back in the ring on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden for a lightweight matchup against Jamaine Ortiz (16-0-1, 8 KO).
Lomachenko was off to support the war effort in his homeland of Ukraine, and even though that will likely still be weighing on his mind, he’s a huge favorite to hand Ortiz his first loss when betting on boxing this weekend.
Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. Jamaine Ortiz
This is new territory for Ortiz, who has been a favorite in his last four matches, and for that matter, a draw against Joseph Adorno at -330 is a very disappointing result.
That being said, Ortiz has bounced back with two decision wins and has made his way to a main eventer. Loma has said that he had two options for this match and chose Ortiz because he is undefeated.
He added that Saturday’s bout will be like one of his amateur fights because “Ortiz is a technician. He has speed. He likes to go for various combinations and moves well in the ring.”
Loma’s Career
The 10-month break is not the longest of Loma’s career, but he’s also 34 now, and it’s been a difficult time back home with the Russian invasion of his homeland.
Boxing odds makers aren’t expecting an upset as part of the Lomachenko vs Ortiz best bets, but this could also be closer than most people expect.
Last Match Record
Ortiz has momentum coming off a decision win against Jamel Herring, the former WBO junior lightweight champion from 2019-2021.
That ended up being the last fight for the 36-year-old Herring. Can Ortiz retire another former champ on Saturday?
Ortiz Records
Ortiz also has a decision win over Nahir Albright in February. Albright is 15-2 in his career and had been on a 9-match win streak before the loss to “The Technician,” so Ortiz’s resume is pretty impressive.
Beating Lomachenko would still be by far the most significant highlight of his career.
We haven’t seen Lomachenko since his decision win over Richard Commey in December 2021. He had a bout scheduled with George Kambosos, Jr. in June, but that was canceled with “Hi-Tech” still being in Ukraine.
Loma’s Records
Loma decided to stay with his family and fight for his country instead of taking a shot at Kambosos’ unified lightweight titles, which is admirable.
One has to wonder how much training Loma has done in the past ten months, although fighting in a war is not the same as sitting around on the couch and not training.
That’s still something that has to be considered for the Lomachenko vs Ortiz best bets, as is the fact that Loma could be looking past Ortiz as he’s already said he wants to entertain a Devin Haney bout next.
Lomachenko vs. Ortiz Analysis
Lomanchenko’s Betting Analysis
Handing Ortiz his first career loss would be another notch on the resume for Lomachenko, and it’s an impressive resume at that.
Lomachenko was 396-1 as an amateur, and although you have to wonder about some of those opponents, he put those questions to rest with gold medal wins in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics.
Lomachenko has some of the most impressive boxing stats of all time.
He won the WBO featherweight championship in his third fight, went on to win the junior lightweight title in his seventh match, and added the lightweight title in just his 12th professional trip to the ring.
While he might seem invincible, Lomachenko had gotten beaten by Teofimo Lopez by decision in October 2020, when Lomachenko was a -370 favorite.
Ortiz’s Analysis
Ortiz is a longshot here, but he’s tallied two straight impressive victories, albeit as a -170 and -220 favorite. When you throw in the fact that Loma has had the last ten months off, an Ortiz loss is not a sure thing here.
Odds Breakdown for Lomachenko vs. Ortiz
- Jamaine Ortiz +900
- Vasyl Lomachenko -2000
Lomachenko vs. Ortiz Betting Pick and Prediction
The way the lines are stacked, this looks like a Lomachenko win via a decision or a late-round knockout.
The breaking point in rounds for boxing picks in Saturday’s fight is the 10.5 mark, where there are even money odds on it going under. It’s still a -140 price tag to go ‘over’ 10.5 rounds.
Who to Bet On?
With Ortiz being such a tactician, it could be dangerous for Loma to let this one get to the judges.
Lomachenko might even lose a couple of rounds early due to his 10-month layoff, and the real value for the Lomachenko vs Ortiz Best Bets is on the stunner:
Boxing Pick: Ortiz by decisión (+1300)
Boxing Pick: The fight goes the distance: Yes (+105)
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