One of the main event boxing matches this weekend to keep an eye on is this lightweight bout on Mexican Independence Day between rising Mexican Contender William Zepeda headlining a show against Mercito Gesta in California.
Read more for a closer look at this lightweight bout and for the official Zepeda vs Gesta prediction ahead of making your betting picks this weekend.
William Zepeda vs. Mercito Gesta Information
William Zepeda vs. Mercito Gesta
Location: Commerce Casino, Commerce, California, United States
Date and Time: September 16, 2023, 11 PM ET estimated ring walk
How to Watch: DAZN
Last Fight Results
Zepeda is coming off a KO victory over Jaime Arboleda in April.
Gesta is coming off a big split decision win over Joseph Diaz Jr. in April.
William Zepeda vs. Mercito Gesta Betting Analysis
William Zepeda
Zepeda is a Mexican boxer with a professional record of 28-0, and 24 of those wins have come via KO. He is the current WBA Continental Americas lightweight titleholder since July 2021. “Camaron” is listed at 5’9” and has a 69.5” reach while fighting out of the southpaw stance. At the age of 27, Zepeda is now ranked as a top-7 lightweight in every publication, including the #2 WBA lightweight contender.
Mercito Gesta
Gesta is a Filipino professional boxer with a record of 34-3-3, with 17 wins coming via KO. At the age of 35, he has challenged for a world lightweight title twice–once for the IBF belt in 2012 and once in 2018 for the WBA belt.
“No Mercy” is listed at 5’7” with a 68” reach, and he’s big enough that he has been able to compete at light welterweight as well throughout his career.
Updates
There are no injuries reported to DAZN or GoldenBoy Promotions.
William Zepeda vs. Mercito Gesta Betting Preview
If you want to make correct boxing predictions to win money betting on them, you need to take the time to preview the betting lines and even watch the tape on all the fighters you are betting on. The more you immerse yourself in the sport, and who’s fighting, you will be successful.
Before getting to the Zepeda vs Gesta prediction, let’s check out the available betting lines. According to boxing odds, Zepeda is the A-side to this event and is coming in as the massive -1450 betting favorite over the +780 Gesta. The bout is also heavily favored to end inside the distance at -410, which is rare to see in lightweight boxing.
Zepeda is -330 to win by KO, and Gesta is +1800 to do the same. If the favorite ends up winning on the scorecards and Gesta survives 12 rounds, you could cash a bet at +440 odds.
After watching the tape on both of these high-level fighters, the betting odds start to make a little more sense. Zepeda is a special talent with a ton of impressive qualities as a boxer that he must have taken from some of the Mexican greats before him.
He looks like a mixture of De La Hoya and Canelo at times, with his guard and ability to land heavy shots to the body. On top of that, he fights out of the southpaw stance, and that is tricky for opponents to fight against.
Gesta also looks like he has taken some stuff from the Filipino greats from before him. Even at age 35, he looks very good. There’s no doubt that Gesta had his time when he was fast enough to compete at the highest level, but it seems like he is on the downslope of his career.
He is still a great fighter, but it’s going to be tough for him to stand toe-to-toe with someone on the level of Zepeda right now.
William Zepeda vs. Mercito Gesta Betting Prediction
Since watching the recent performances of both men, breaking down the betting odds, and understanding the situation of this even on Mexican Independence Day–the Zepeda vs Gesta prediction is that Zepeda will steamroll through the aging Gesta.
Even the KO prop bet for Zepeda is tough to bet on because there’s not much of a potential winning payout at those odds, but that is the most likely outcome. If you are going to try to hit it on the money with big odds, you can bet on him finishing the job around round 7 or 8.
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