There are few horse races in the world that capture the imagination as much as the opening Triple Crown. Fans from around the world will be reading up on the latest form before making a wager on the Kentucky Derby odds. The first Saturday in May is often when the big race takes place, but the Kentucky Derby 2022 will be staged on the second Saturday of the month.
Kentucky Derby betting markets have been open for over six months, but what are key trends that should be followed before making a wager on the race this year?
Kentucky Derby Information
The race is the opening leg of the Triple Crown and is followed by the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. It is labeled as the ‘most exciting two minutes in sport’ and takes place annually at Churchill Downs, Kentucky. Annually, the race attracts more spectators than any other equine event in the U.S., eclipsing the number of fans that attend both the Belmont Stakes and Preakness Stakes.
The Kentucky Derby 2022 will take place over 1 ¼ miles, on the left-handed track at Churchill Downs. Like the two Triple Crown races that follow, it is also run on the dirt by horses that are aged three. A total purse of $3 million is available, with just under $1.9 million going to the winning connections.
Previous Winners
Like all major horse races, one of the most important factors to understand while learning how to bet on horse racing, is understanding the significance of past performances. Before making Kentucky Derby predictions on the race this year, you can find the previous five winners of the Triple Crown race below.
Year | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
2021 | Mandaloun | Florent Geroux | Brad Cox | 12/1 |
2020 | Authentic | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert | 8/1 |
2019 | Country House | Flavien Prat | William Mott | 65/1 |
2018 | Justify | Mike Smith | Bob Baffert | 3/1F |
2017 | Always Dreaming | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 5/1 |
Kentucky Derby Betting Trends
While the formbook will point towards the leading contenders when it comes to making Kentucky Derby predictions, the trends are also important reading. The trends could help pinpoint horses in the Kentucky Derby betting that may have gone under the radar at first glimpse. Some of the key trends that you should follow when looking at the horse racing odds can be found below.
- Only one of the previous five favorites in the Kentucky Derby have won the race
- None of the 16 previous winners have been drawn in stalls 1-3
- Stalls 4 and 7 have produced ten winners and 22 places from 91 starts
- Horses that have made between two and four career starts
- Latest win came over a distance of between 1 mile and 1 1/8 miles
- All but one of the last 16 winners have won a graded race
- Run in Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Risen Star Stakes or Florida Derby
As well as positive trends there are also negative trends that go against selections in the Kentucky Derby betting. Some of the factors you should avoid following when making a bet on the opening Triple Crown race are below.
- First race came on the turf
- Run in a field of less than six on their previous start
- All but two of the 16 previous Kentucky Derby winners have won within their previous three starts
- All but two of the previous 16 Derby winners have finished in the first three on their previous start
- Run in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes
Kentucky Derby Betting Analysis
Epicenter
Epicenter is a deserving favorite in the betting for the Kentucky Derby 2022. The three-year-old for Steven Asmussen accumulated the most points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and sits top of the leaderboard with 164. Asmussen is looking for a first win in the race and has leading claims with this talented horse.
Epicenter hasn’t done a thing wrong to this point and has looked better and better with each start. His win in the G2 Risen Star looks like an interesting form line, as he beat both Smile Happy and Zandon. That form was backed up with a very impressive victory in the G2 Louisiana Derby in March, beating Zozos and Pioneer of Medina over 1 3/16 miles.
Taiba
Taiba put a serious marker down on his latest start, as he won the G1 Santa Anita Derby on his first run in graded company. The Tim Yakteen-trained horse is looking to defy historical trends, and become the third horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby despite never running as a two-year-old. The most recent horse to achieve that feat was Triple Crown winner Justify in 2018, which only illustrates the company that he is trying to keep.
It was hard not to be impressed by his win in the Santa Anita Derby, as he hit a speed figure of 102. However, his lack of experience and fact that the prior mentioned race was a small field both go against him.
Mo Donegal
Mo Donegal is a leading contender for Todd Pletcher in the Kentucky Derby odds. Pletcher will be looking for a third win in the race, and first since Always Dreaming in 2017. Mo Donegal certainly is one that is worth a second leg after impressing over 1 1/8 miles. His latest victory came over that distance in the Wood Memorial, beating eight rivals.
He finished a neck clear of Early Voting on that occasion and looks like one that will improve over a slightly longer trip. His previous graded victory saw him beat Zandon by a nose in the G2 Ramsen. The draw will be more significant for his chances than most, but I do have reservations, as I think the horse that beat him in the G3 Holy Bull is the value play.
Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
Gamblers have been making Kentucky Derby predictions over the past six months, but the odds between now and race day are unlikely to change too drastically. The final prep races have now been run, and the betting is headed by Epicenter at 9/2 for Steven Asmussen. Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba is the second choice in the betting at 7/1, while White Abarrio, Zandon, and Mo Donegal are the next three.
Messier was beaten in the Santa Anita Derby but looks a fine price at 14/1 based on his runs previously. Simplification and Early Voting round off the top of the betting, as both are priced up at 16/1. But, after learning how to bet on horse racing picks, it may pay to wait until the draw for the Kentucky Derby is made before making a final selection.
Kentucky Derby Betting Prediction
It is challenging to make a selection on the Kentucky Derby before the draw has been made. However, I am fairly high up on the chances of White Abarrio for Saffie Joseph Jr. Since returning to the track in 2022, his performances have been taken up a notch. He kickstarted his season with victory over Simplification by four and a half lengths over 1 1/16 miles in the G3 Holy Bull.
He took another step forward when stepped up to 1 1/8 miles in the G1 Florida Derby. On that occasion, he finished a length and a quarter clear of Charge It. Eleven runners lined up in that race, and his big-field experience is a big plus for the Kentucky Derby.
As a second choice, I still won’t be deterred from Smile Happy, who is readily offered at around 20/1. He may have finished second on his starts this year, behind Epicenter in the G2 Risen Star and Zandon in the G1 Blue Grass, but the three-year-old is still a talent. His experience of Churchill Downs could still be a big bonus, as he beat White Abrarrio in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. However, the form has taken a hit with the demise of Classic Causeway. But, a chance could be taken.
If you love sports and want more sports betting information follow us as @InsidersBetDig on Twitter and sign up to our mailing list for free betting picks.