The opening leg of the U.S. Triple Crown is finally upon us, as 20 runners will look to join the greats by winning the Kentucky Derby this weekend. Churchill Downs will host the prestigious race for horses aged three, which will be competed over a distance of 1¼ miles. There is a very competitive feel to the Kentucky Derby odds this year. With at least half the runners in the field holding credible chances. You can find the latest horse racing odds, and our 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions right here.
Kentucky Derby Odds
| Forte | +250 |
| Tapit Trice | +450 |
| Angel of Empire | +700 |
| Practical Move | +800 |
| Kingsbarns | +1000 |
| Derma Sotogake | +1000 |
| Mage | +1600 |
| Two Phil’s | +1600 |
| Skinner | +1600 |
| Verifying | +1800 |
| Mandarin Hero | +2000 |
| Rocket Can | +2500 |
| Hit Show | +2500 |
| Confidence Game | +2500 |
| Lord Miles | +2500 |
| Disarm | +2800 |
| Jace’s Road | +3300 |
| Reincarnate | +4000 |
| Continuar | +5000 |
| Cyclone Mischief | +5000 |
| King Russell | +5000 |
| Raise Cain | +6600 |
| Sun Thunder | +6600 |
Kentucky Derby 2023 Leading Contenders
Forte (15)
There’s little doubt that the star contender in the field comes in the form of Todd Pletcher’s Forte. The three-year-old landed the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland last year. And has returned to action in 2023 in sensational form. On his first start this year, he eased to success in the G2 Fountain of Youth, beating Rocket Can by four and a half lengths.
However, it was the manner of his second win in the G1 Florida Derby that was most pleasing. Despite being drawn wide, he rallied late to beat Mage by a length. Forte ticks a lot of boxes, including the fact that he is one of three to have achieved a Beyer speed rating of 100+.
Tapit Trice (5)
Tapit Trice is featuring heavily among the 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions from experts, and he holds a very realistic danger to Forte this weekend. The runner, also from Pletcher’s yard, is sired by Tapit.
He will start from stall five this weekend, which boasts an impressive win rate of 10.8% in Derby history. On the track, he has won on both previous starts this year.
Tapit Trice landed the G3 South Florida Derby by two lengths from Classic Car Wash in March, before returning last month to claim a narrow success over Verifying by a neck in the G1 Blue Grass. However, no horse has done the Blue Grass-Derby double since Strike The Gold in 1991.
Angel of Empire (14)
Angel of Empire is the leading chance of a winner from the Brad Cox yard this year. He has been flagged up on many Kentucky Derby predictions, and he could be a strong contender. His highest recorded Beyer rating was 94, but he did his a Timeform rating of 117 when landing the G1 Arkansas Derby on his previous start.
That run was extremely pleasing, as he held off King Russell in a field of ten runners to win by over four lengths. His strong staying ability could make him a serious challenger at Churchill Downs, and if he has improved from his run at Oaklawn, he is sure to be in the money places.
Practical Move (10)
Practical Move is one of the only other runners to have hit a Beyer speed rating of 100 this season, and he started from a strong stall position of ten, which has a 10.5% strike rate in the Derby. The Tim Yakteen runner has progressed nicely this year, beating Geaux Rocket Ride by over two lengths in the G2 San Felipe, before holding off Mandarin Hero in the G1 Santa Anita Derby by a nose.
However, both of those outings saw him have a straightforward passage into the race, and he is unlikely to have things all his own way at Churchill Downs this weekend. For me, he is one that is just a little too short in the betting, and I’d be fading him in my 2023 Kentucky Derby predictions.
Kentucky Derby Outsiders
Two Phil’s (3)
For those that know how to bet on horse racing, it is always worthwhile to look away from the favorites. The Kentucky Derby often offers excellent value across the board, and one runner that we like at a price is Two Phil’s for Larry Rivelli. Interestingly, this three-year-old holds the highest Beyer rating of any runner in the Derby, as he achieved a 101 when winning the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks.
Transferring that form back onto the dirt is the biggest question, as he finished third to Angel of Empire in the G2 Risen Star back in February. However, he has previous winning experience at Churchill Downs, having landed the G3 Street Sense by a widening five lengths back in October. Also, he is sired by Hard Spun, who previously finished second in the Kentucky Derby.
Mage (8)
Mage may have finished behind Forte on two occasions already, but I still have faith in this three-year-old. While a victory may be a huge outside chance, I do think he is good enough to at least hit the board at Churchill Downs.
Trained by Gustavo Delgado, he has reached a Beyer figure of 95 this season, and was only held off by a length by Forte in the G1 Florida Derby last time out. His sire, Good Magic, previously finished second in the Kentucky Derby, while mare Puca, has previously won over 1.5 miles. He started from a strong position this weekend, with stall eight having an 8.7% strike rate in the Derby.
Others Kentucky Derby Runners To Consider
Derma Sotogake has been the talk of the paddock throughout the week-long build-up at Churchill Downs. The Japanese raider was excellent in the G2 UAE Derby to secure his berth in the race, and he could easily be a solid contender this weekend despite drawing stall 17, which is yet to produce a Kentucky Derby winner.
Confidence Game has already won twice at Churchill Downs, and we saw just how important previous course form is last year when Rich Strike shocked the world. He comes into the race after landing the G2 Rebel Stakes, but a break since February is far from ideal.
Wide draws haven’t been the worst for previous runners in the Kentucky Derby, and I could see Rocket Can running a huge race from stall 18. He has been well-held by Forte and Angel of Empire on his previous two starts, but he landed success at Churchill Downs in October, and was a close second behind Confidence Game at the same track in November.
Kentucky Derby 2023 Predictions
Forte is very much my idea of the winner this weekend. The Pletcher runner could be extremely special, and he has a high cruising pace, as we have already seen in his previous two victories this season. In truth, I still think +300 is an incredibly fair price, and he ticks all the boxes for the Derby winner this year.
Angel of Empire is a runner I’d be keen to use underneath, while Two Phil’s looks set to run a storming race from stall three. Derma Sotogake has a powerful turn of foot and offers a value exotics angle, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see Confidence Game showcase his Churchill Downs form to finish in the top three.
- Pick: (15) Forte (+300)
- Outsider: (3) Two Phil’s (+1600)
Trifecta Box:
- (15) Forte
- (3) Two Phil’s
- (4) Confidence Game
- (17) Derma Sotogake
- (14) Angel of Empire
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