One of the most exciting weekends on the U.S. horse racing schedule is upon us, as the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby are staged at Churchill Downs this weekend. Friday’s action at the track will be all about the girls, with the opening leg of the Triple Tiara taking center stage.
Betting for the race has been open for the last couple of months, but with the draw being made on Monday, we can take a deeper dive into the Kentucky Oaks odds 2023, and find out more about the leading Kentucky Oaks picks.
Kentucky Oaks 2023 Odds
| Horse | Odds |
| Wet Paint | +250 |
| Botanical | +600 |
| Southlawn | +800 |
| Affirmative Lady | +900 |
| Wonder Wheel | +1000 |
| Pretty Mischievous | +1200 |
| Defining Purpose | +1200 |
| Gambling Girl | +1400 |
| Promiseher America | +1400 |
| Julia Shining | +1600 |
| Flying Connection | +1600 |
| And Tell Me Nolies | +1600 |
| The Alys Look | +2000 |
| Dorth Vader | +2000 |
| Mimi Kakushi | +2000 |
| Hoosier Philly | +2500 |
| Taxed | +2500 |
Kentucky Oaks Records
The Kentucky Oaks has been staged annually since 1875, with the field of fillies aged three competing over 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. A purse of $1.25 million is available to connections, with Shedaresthedevil holding the speed record over the current distance following her win in 2020.
The widest winning margin remains the 20¼ lengths recorded by Rachel Alexandra, while Lemons Forever is the biggest long-shot to win the race at +4700.
Kentucky Oaks Contenders
Wet Paint (7)
The Kentucky Oaks odds 2023 are headed by one of a number in the race for Brad Cox. Wet Paint will be bidding to give Godolphin their first winner in the Oaks, and she comes into the race in excellent recent form this calendar year. After disappointing on debut in September, the three-year-old has won on all three starts this year.
The pick of those came in the G3 Fantasy at Oaklawn, where she held off Taxed to reach a speed rating of 94. But, this will once again require a career-best effort on her first start in Grade 1 company.
Botanical (6)
Brad Cox has a strong hand at the top of the Kentucky Oaks odds this year, as he chases a first win in the race since Shedaresthedevil in 2020. This three-year-old has also progressed very nicely this year, winning on each of her two previous starts in stakes company.
However, both of her wins in the Cincinnati Trophy and Bourbonette Oaks were achieved on the synthetic surface, with the latter of those coming over 1 1/16 miles to reach a speed figure of 90. For a contender so short, it is worth considering that she has never previously competed on the dirt surface.
Southlawn (4)
Norm Casse is one of a number of trainers chasing a first Oaks victory, and Southlawn could be one of the contenders that we know more about than most. The three-year-old has won three from seven starts, and she has proven in Grade 2 company.
That success was picked up on her previous outing, as she held off Pretty Mischievous and The Alys Look to win the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks with a speed figure of 92. She also has three previous runs at Churchill Downs under her belt, including a fifth on the turf and a seventh in the G3 Pocahontas last year.
Affirmative Lady (13)
Affirmative Lady could be one of the best value horse racing picks in the race this year. She took a considerable step in the right direction on her previous start, as she landed the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks with a speed figure of 88.
That run over 1 1/16 miles was a second win over the distance, and she has previous experience over 1 1/8 miles, having finished second to Julia Shining in the G2 Demoiselle, and third in the Busanda Stakes. The draw is a slight concern, but she is a talented runner from the Brendan Walsh stable.
Wonder Wheel (5)
Wonder Wheel is the slight question mark in the horse racing odds, as she could be ridiculously over-priced if able to rediscover her best form. The runner for Mark Casse was the standout two-year-old filly last year, capturing the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and G1 Alcibiades.
However, her three-year-old campaign is yet to really show those same signs. She was a credible second in the Suncoast Stakes in February, before underwhelming in the G1 Ashland to take a disappointing sixth. But, I really like her chances of bouncing back this weekend at a track where she has twice claimed success.
Kentucky Oaks 2023 Prediction
The Kentucky Oaks odds 2023 highlight how competitive this year’s renewal should be. From a value standpoint, I struggle to support the top two in the betting, with neither Wet Paint nor Botanical showcasing their quality at this level previously.
At the prices, I think Southlawn has an excellent chance. She is still improving, and based on her run in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she should surely get this extra distance.
Wonder Wheel is a runner I would be prepared to give one final chance, as she could be the easiest pick if rediscovering her two-year-old form. Meanwhile, And Tell Me Nolies and Flying Connection could be solid plays in Exacta and Trifecta Boxes.
- Pick 1: Southlawn (+800)
- Pick 2: Wonder Wheel (+1000)
Trifecta Box:
- (4) Southlawn
- (5) Wonder Wheel
- (9) And Tell Me Nolies
- (10) Flying Connection
- (13) Affirmative Lady
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