The opening Triple Crown race of the season takes place on Saturday, May 7, as Churchill Downs hosts the illustrious Kentucky Derby 2022. It is the biggest race of the year for horses that are aged three, as the field looks to join some of the legendary winners. But, which underdogs in the Kentucky Derby betting have solid outside chances to win the Grade 1 this year?
Kentucky Derby Stats
Race Details
- Date: Saturday, May 7
- Where: Churchill Downs
- Grade: Grade 1
- Distance: 1 ¼ Miles
- Surface: Dirt
- Purse: $3 million
Kentucky Derby Outsider- Messier
Just a couple of weeks ago, Messier was among the front-runners in the Kentucky Derby odds. However, a disappointing defeat in the G1 Santa Anita Derby against stablemate Taiba has seen diminished confidence in the three-year-old. Odds of 12/1 may not seem like an underdog price, but Messier remains a talented contender for Tim Yakteen. That defeat in a small-fielded Santa Anita Derby still saw him hit a speed figure of 99, which is bigger than Epicenter has managed in either of his two Grade 2 victory.
Messier also landed the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes back in February, hitting a mighty speed figure of 107. The pace that he possesses makes him a serious contender around Churchill Downs, but a favorable draw will be needed in order for us to see the very best of him at the Kentucky Derby 2022.
Kentucky Derby Outsider- Smile Happy
Smile Happy is one of the Kentucky Derby predictions I made back in January that I still haven’t given up on. I’m much happier with him being an 18/1 chance in the current Kentucky Derby odds, as that is exceptional value. The Kenneth McPeek-trained horse was seen by many as a solid playback in February following the dominant return to the track of Classic Causeway.
However, defeat for Smile Happy on his return behind Epicenter in the G2 Risen Star raised concerns. But he took a considerable stride forward back on track in early April, as he finished second in the G1 Blue Grass Stakes behind Zandon. A speed figure of 104 from that run was a stunning display, and he appears to be heading back in the right direction. When learning how to bet on horse racing, you realize the importance of course experience, and Smile Happy has already won the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs, which bodes well.
Kentucky Derby Outsider- Crown Pride
Japan has landed some big prizes in the U.S. over the previous 12 months, including Marche Lorraine’s shock win over the likes of Letruska and Malathaat in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. However, this year, they will be looking to land the biggest prize of all-the Kentucky Derby. Crown Pride is massively overpriced in the Kentucky Derby betting at present, as he boasts a proven record over this distance for trainer Koichi Shintani. Currently, the Japanese raider is a 33/1 chance.
The three-year-old has run over distances greater than a mile on three occasions and has won on all three occasions. Crown Pride’s victory in the G1 UAE Derby was the standout success, as he won by two and three-quarter lengths from Summer Is Tomorrow. He could have a big chance to make history this year, and his experience over the Derby distance at least commands respect on his U.S. debut.
Kentucky Derby Betting Trends
- Donerail (1913) was the biggest outsider to win the Kentucky Derby at 91/1
- Justify and Apollo are the only two horses since 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced aged two
- 15 of the previous 16 Kentucky Derby winners have won a graded race
- One of the previous five favorites has won the Kentucky Derby
- All 16 previous winners have made their last starts in a field of seven rivals or more
Kentucky Derby Outsider Picks
There is always room for an outsider when making Kentucky Derby predictions. With the leading sportsbooks offering excellent value, it could be worth taking a chance on a horse at a price. Smile Happy would be my outside play for the Kentucky Derby this year.
He has already landed a victory at Churchill Downs, as well as ticking the boxes of winning a graded race and ran in a field of eleven on his previous start. His experience in deeper fields is a massive plus for me, and if the draw is kind, Kentucky Derby success could follow.
Conclusion
It’s important to understand how to bet on horse racing before making your wager on a Kentucky Derby outsider. That includes examining the trends and pinpointing a selection that ticks the most boxes. However, that doesn’t mean ruling out the Kentucky Derby favorites, as there could still be value in the selections at the top of the betting.
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