The biggest betting day in the United Kingdom takes place on Saturday, April 9th. The prestigious Grand National has been run since 1839, and a field of 40 will be battling to join the illustrious winners of this great race.
Minella Times will be looking to create more history, as Rachel Blackmore had history on board the Henry De Bromhead-trained horse last year to become the first female jockey to win the legendary race.
But, which horses stand the best chance of victory this year, and what important trends could help find the winner of the world-famous race?
Grand National Information
There isn’t another race on the calendar that compares to the Grand National horse racing spectacle. The race is a Grade 3 steeplechase, which was first run in February 1839.
The field of 40 horses will take on 30 of the most challenging fences on the National Hunt calendar, and the race from Aintree will be watched in over 140 countries around the globe.
A total distance of four miles and 514 yards will be covered on the turf, with horses aged seven and older that hold an official BHA rating of 125 or higher being eligible to enter the handicap race. This year’s horse racing spectacle offers a purse of £750,000.
Previous Winners
The Grand National is often one of the most profitable races of the season, with big-priced selections in the horse racing betting odds typically overcoming their starting price.
Below, you will be able to find the last five winners of the race, as well as the jockey, trainer, odds, and handicap.
Year | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Handicap (st-lb) | Odds |
2021 | Minella Times | Rachel Blackmore | Henry De Bromhead | 10-03 | 11/1 |
2019 | Tiger Roll | Davy Russell | Gordon Elliott | 11-05 | 4/1 F |
2018 | Tiger Roll | Davy Russell | Gordon Elliott | 10-13 | 10/1 |
2017 | One For Arthur | Derek Fox | Lucinda Russell | 10-11 | 14/1 |
2016 | Rule The World | David Mullins | Mouse Morris | 10-07 | 33/1 |
Grand National Betting Trends
There really isn’t another race on the horse racing calendar, which means the trends are essential viewing before making a bet on the horse racing odds.
The trends from previous winners could help pinpoint selections, and drastically narrow down the big field from 40 to a handful that stand the best chance. Some of the important Grand National trends can be found below.
- Horses aged 8+
- First run in the race. Eleven of the previous 13 winners were making their Grand National debut
- Entries that have ran well in Irish, Scottish, Midlands, or Welsh Nationals
- Irish-trained runners have won three of the previous four renewals
- Horses that were unplaced in the previous year’s Grand National
- Horses must have won over 3 miles (Minella Times only winner not to have followed this trend)
- Entries with BHA ratings between 136-157. Meanwhile, 23 of the previous 30 winners have carried 10-12 or less
As well as positive trends, there are also negative trends that bettors must be aware of before making their wager. These are some of the stats that mean you should avoid making a selection on a possible horse.
- Aged younger than 8. Last seven-year-old to win the Grand National was in 1940
- Likewise, horses aged 13 and older don’t have good records in the Aintree showpiece
- Horses that have fallen or failed to finish on three or more occasions
- Reigning Grand National champions have a poor record. Tiger Roll became first back-to-back winner in 2019 since Red Rum in 1974
- Entries that run at the Cheltenham Festival
Grand National Betting Analysis – Leading Contenders
Any Second Now
Irish-trained Any Second Now would be a very deserving favorite for Ted Walsh. Walsh last trained the winner of the National in 2000 with Ruby Walsh on board Papilion. Any Second Now does have a moderately high rating of 159, which means that he will be carrying 11-2 at Aintree.
However, he looked excellent over three miles and a furlong in February when holding off Escaria Ten to win by a nose. Previous course experience could also be a plus, as he finished third in the Grand National last year. However, a rise in weight may be detrimental to his chances this year.
Farclas
Farclas ticks a lot of boxes in the race this year for Gordon Elliott. The trainer will be looking for a record-breaking fourth win in the race this year. This eight-year-old holds a BHA rating of 152, meaning a weight allocation of 10-9 this year. That falls into the required trend of weight, while he also has experience of the course, having finished fifth of 10-3 12 months ago.
His latest run came in November at Navan where he finished a distant second behind Run Wild Red, but a slight increase on his weight and previous success over this distance means that he stands an excellent chance at Aintree.
Cloth Cap
Cloth Cap was the favorite for the Grand National 12 months ago, but was ultimately pulled up when traveling well towards the finish. He will be a very popular winner for Jonjo O’Neill at Aintree, as it would give the late Trevor Hemmings a record-extending fourth win in the race six months after his sad passing.
Cloth Cap has undergone a breathing operation in the build-up to the race this year, and if at the level he was when winning a pair of races at Newbury and Kelso last year, he holds every chance off a rating of 147.
Grand National Betting Odds Analysis
The Grand National betting markets have been open for a year, and Delta Work for Gordon Elliott is the current favorite. The nine-year-old ruined Tiger Roll’s swansong at the Cheltenham Festival in heavy conditions last month, reigning supreme in the Cross Country. However, the conditions that day mean that it could be hard to see the unlikely Cross Country-Grand National double achieved once again. The nine-year-old is currently an 8/1 shot.
According to most sports betting guides, Any Second Now is available at around 9/1, while Snow Leopardess has been one of the big market movers, and is likely to be much shorter than her current price of 9/1 on Grand National day itself. Enjoy D’Allen, Escaria Ten, and Éclair Surf round off the top names in the betting, and are all readily available at 10/1.
Grand National 2022 Betting Prediction
It is so hard to have just one selection in the Grand National, so I have four solid plays. I have been extremely keen on Snow Leopardess since her win at Aintree over the National obstacles last year.
It would be a fairytale success for the star, who missed nearly 800 days of racing through injury. She returned after that win in the Becher Chase with a statement win over three miles at Exeter. Her jumping on that day was sensational, as she eventually finished 12 lengths clear of Momella.
She will be looking to become the first mother to win the Grand National and the fourth grey to win the illustrious Aintree showpiece. However, previous course experience and an official rating of 146 gives her every chance to make history.
Cloth Cap is also an extremely talented horse, and the Jonjo O’Neill-trained horse has excellent place value at 22/1 at present. Two others at bigger prices that I think have excellent chances of Fortescue and Farclas (22/1).
The latter is the leading Elliott chance in the race this year and should run well after a slight rise in weight from his performance last year.
Fortescue (33/1) bypassed the Scottish National for Henry Daly, and should be taken very seriously off a rating of 143 after beating Fiddlerontheroof over three miles at Ascot in February.
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