Pick Analysis
The 2024 Home Run Derby will be held tonight in Arlington, Texas, at Globe Life Field, home of the Texas Rangers.
Therefore, the MLB added Texas Ranger Adolis Garcia to the Home Run Derby lineup. He’ll compete against seven other electric home run hitters for the Home Run Derby Trophy. The format of this year’s Home Run Derby will differ from previous years. We’ll address all the rule changes in a moment.
Read on for our Home Run Derby betting picks for 2024 below and get the latest MLB odds at BetUs.
2024 Home Run Derby Betting Picks

- Pick: Pete Alonso +300
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Odds to win Home Run Derby
Contestant | MLB Odds BetUS |
---|---|
Pete Alonso | +300 |
Marcell Ozuna | +380 |
Gunnar Henderson | +430 |
Bobby Witt Jr. | +470 |
Adolis Garcia | +500 |
Teoscar Hernandez | +1100 |
Jose Ramirez | +1200 |
Alec Bohm | +1600 |
MLB Home Run Derby Betting Analysis
As promised, let’s discuss the rule changes for this year’s Home Run Derby.
- Rule Change 1: No More Head-to-Head Bracket In First Round
In the past, there would be eight hitters and four MLB matchups. The four hitters that won their matchups would advance into the semis. This year, the eight contestants will compete against the entire field, and then the top four will head into a bracket style in the semifinals.
- Rule Change 2: Cap On the Number of Pitchers Per Round
Each hitter will have a maximum of 40 pitches to swing at in three minutes. However, in the Final, hitters will only have two minutes with a maximum of 27 pitches.
- Rule Change 3: No Timer For Bonus Period
Hitters received bonus time with home runs that exceeded 440 feet. That’ll still happen. However, when hitters have the bonus time this year, it won’t be just 30 seconds per home run. Instead, hitters will get three outs to work with before stopping.
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Home Run Derby Previous Winners and Betting Trends
Last year, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took home the Home Run Derby trophy. Juan Soto added a trophy to his collection in 2022. However, those two won’t return to compete in the Home Run Derby this MLB season.
Pete Alonso is the only MLB player stats to win the Home Run Derby. Alonso won in 2019 and repeated in 2021. While the years were separated by 2020, the 2020 derby was canceled due to the pandemic.
Alonso is going for his third championship. It’s one of the many reasons he’s the favorite to win this year.
Home Run Derby Betting Picks
Pete Alonso has the best chance of winning again. He’s comfortable in these types of settings. He’s had previous success, and I won’t have any pressure on him heading into this event.
Additionally, he’s struggled over the last couple of years to win the Derby due to his pitcher. When Alonso succeeded and won, he had former Mets coach Dave Jauss throw the ball. However, once he had other pitchers, he struggled to find the same success.
Jauss threw terrific meatballs down the middle of the zone, right where Alonso wanted it. His other pitchers didn’t. Knowing Jauss will be throwing to Alonso tonight is crucial.
We’d rock with Alonso as the favorite to win the Derby at +300. However, keep reading our Home Run Derby predictions if you’re looking for some sleepers.
Teoscar Hernandez +1100
Teoscar Hernandez is joining his fourth Home Run Derby. He’s got the experience. However, this time, he has the right coach throwing him the ball. He’ll have Dino Ebel throw to him. Ebel has already been thrown at Vladimir Guerrero and Albert Pujols. He also threw to Joc Pederson when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Hernandez has experience, and his pitcher also has plenty of experience in this environment. Hernandez is simply a sneaky Home Run Derby betting pick at +1100.
Jose Ramirez +1200
Jose Ramirez is usually a better home run hitter from the left side. But he was forced to hit from the right side in the 2022 Home Run Derby due to a thumb injury. If Ramirez, a switch hitter, bats from the left side in tonight’s Derby, he deserves shorter odds than +1200.
We also like his experience in 2022. He only had 17 home runs in the first round and didn’t look good. But he’s shown much power this season and has way more potential as a lefty.
Best of luck with your Home Run Derby betting picks, and enjoy the show!
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