A pair of basement teams meet as the Baltimore Orioles visit the Kansas City Royals to open up a four-game series at 8:10 p.m. ET on Thursday. Baltimore (24-33) has had a little more success despite being in a far more competitive division. Arguably the AL East has been the best in baseball, with four teams sporting a winning record.
Kansas City (18-37) has had one of the most disappointing seasons in the league one-third of the way through the season. They have the league’s worst record, have been poor pitching, as expected, and their offense has been underwhelming.
A pair of southpaws will start with Baltimore throwing Bruce Zimmermann, who is 2-4 with a 4.87 ERA. He is a pitch-to-contact guy with just 42 strikeouts in 57.1 innings pitched. The Orioles are 4-6 when he pitches, through 2-6 in the last eight starts.
Kansas City’s Kris Bubic will oppose him. He is 0-3 with a 9.33 ERA in seven appearances with a mix of starts and relief opportunities. In his last start, he delivered five scoreless innings, getting a no-decision in the Royals’ 6-0 win over the Houston Astros.
The game is a pick ‘em, with each team posting -110 moneyline odds. The run line favors Kansas City -1.5 (+170) with the Orioles +1.5 (-205), though MLB odds vary based on the sportsbook. The over/under is 9.5.
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals Stats
Baltimore Orioles Stats
The Baltimore Orioles are in the bottom third of the league offensively and pitching-wise. Though their pitching has been better, ranking 21st in allowing 4.58 runs per game.
Where they really struggle is generating whiffs, having the second-worst strikeout rate of 7.18 times per game. Their strand rate has been solid because they are 27th in opposing average and 26th in OPS, suggesting they should be giving up more runs per game.
Their offense ranks 25th in runs per game (3.97), average (.229), and OPS (.668), which are consistent struggles. They are also 25th in strikeouts, averaging 9.03 per game.
Baltimore is 5-5 over the last ten games, with the over 7-2-1 in that span, including hitting in six of the last seven games. Their offense is averaging five runs per game while scoring nine twice and ten once in that stretch. They’ve given up 4.9 runs per game, though, so there is a bump in offense overall.
Trey Mancini is having a great season, hitting .303 with nine doubles and six home runs. Austin Hays is behind him at .292 though he has a team-high 13 doubles and is second in home runs at seven.
Anthony Santander has nine home runs and is tied with Hays for a team-high 30 RBIs.
Infielder Chris Owings is out (personal), but they otherwise have a clean injury report with nobody new added.
Kansas City Royals Stats
By comparison, Kansas City should be better than their record states. They are 26th, scoring 3.79 runs per game, 20th in average at .235, and seventh in strikeouts, only sitting down 7.9 times per game.
Rookie sensation Bobby Witt Jr. has cooled off a bit but is hitting .221 and is second with seven home runs, and leads the team in doubles (13), RBIs (28), and stolen bases (8). Whit Merrifield still brings the speed with seven stolen bases. Andrew Benintendi has had a resurgence to carry a .315 average. The team just isn’t delivering runs.
The pitching staff is the fourth worst, allowing 5.51 runs per game. They are 28th in opposing average (.273) and OPS (.779). They also have the league’s worst strikeout rate at 6.95, which is five spots below the Orioles, and a full two strikeouts worse shows how tough it has been.
The Royals have won two of the last ten games and are averaging three runs per game and have been shut out three times in that stretch. The over/under is 5-5 in those ten games. They’re allowing 6.2 runs per game, with seven games giving up seven or more runs.
Eleven Royals are out with an injury designation, though Hunter Dozier is questionable with an upper-body issue and left-handed reliever Amir Garrett is out definitely with an illness. Losing Adalberto Mondesi for the season with a knee injury was tough as he was a catalyst for their offense.
Orioles/Royals Betting Trends
Here’s a look at some of the MLB betting trends for this game:
- Bettors are split 50/50 with moneyline bets
- The over is favored by 64% of bettors
- The over is 7-1 in the last seven meetings in Kansas City
- Though the under is 6-2 over the last eight overall
- Kansas City is 21-7 over the last 28 games when it hosts Baltimore
Orioles/Royals Betting Predictions
Betting on baseball at a macro level is much easier because it is easy to forecast teams on paper as averages play out over the course of time. Though MLB picks today are more difficult because there are so many variables, and a player can follow a string of great games with a horrible one.
Conclusion
We’re going to take the more consistent offense and bet Orioles’ moneyline and +1.5 (-170) despite the poor history when visiting the Royals. They are on the better end of teams trending in opposite directions.
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