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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Stats and Trends

We have a rare one-game series in Beantown as the Baltimore Orioles (58-52, 25-31 Away) visit the Boston Red Sox (54-58, 26-29 Home) on Thursday night. The first pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 pm EST.

The two will get awfully familiar with one another down the stretch as they are scheduled to square off ten more times after this one.

They split their eight first-half meetings, four apiece, so this one will break the tie as Josh Winckowski goes for Boston against Baltimore’s Dean Kremer. This is one of five intra-division MLB matchups on the slate.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Betting Stats

Orioles Stats

The Orioles didn’t even have to play on Wednesday to secure a tie for the third and final Wild Card spot in the American League.

Their series finale with the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday was rained out while the Rays fell to the Brewers in extra innings, resulting in both AL East clubs entering Thursday with identical 58-52 records.

Baltimore probably would have rather played, considering they won the first two games of the series with Toronto and seven of their last eight overall.

First Time Since 2017

The O’s are now six games over .500 for the first time since May of 2017 despite not ranking in the top five of any major statistical team category besides saves.

Perhaps a rest day was warranted, however, as they were in the middle of a 17-game stretch without an off day.

After this game with the Red Sox (rescheduled due to the extended lockout), they’ll fly to Tampa for a big three-game series with the Tampa Bay Rays before flying back up north to Toronto for three more with the Jays with no rest days in between.

Red Sox Stats

The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, are trending in the opposite direction and appear to have secured the AL East basement the rest of the way as the other four MLB teams in the division compete for playoff spots.

Boston enters this one-off with Baltimore having lost four in a row, getting swept most recently by Atlanta in a two-game set with the Atlanta Braves.

All-Star Break Comeback

Since returning from the All-Star break, the Sox are just 6-13 to fall 17 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East and a full five games out of the Wild Card. 

Recently-acquired Tommy Pham is providing a boost to a struggling offense, homering in three straight games.

However, J.D. Martinez is in a significant funk. The 2022 All-Star is just 9-71 with 25 strikeouts since July 13, going 0-4 on Wednesday with two K’s and a grounder that resulted in a double play.

Orioles vs. Red Sox Betting Trends

  • The Orioles are 22-6 in their last 28 games on grass.
  • Baltimore is 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 20-6 in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • The Red Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 vs. the American League East.
  • Boston is 8-20 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record and 7-19 in their last 26 overall.
  • The Over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles’ last four overall and 5-1 in the Red Sox last six overall.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Betting Prediction and Picks

This isn’t the most marquis matchup on the mound, to say the least. Both pitchers have gone six or more innings just three times this season, but the slight edge goes to Kremer, who enters with an ERA of 3.43.

Neither will miss a lot of bats either, as the two have combined to strike out just 75 batters. To put that in perspective, Gerrit Cole has 178 on his own.

Kremer is coming off a shutout performance after going into the seventh inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Winckowski lost to the Orioles all the way back in May, the only time he’s faced them this season.

Who to Bet On?

The oddsmakers installed Boston as the home favorites, so according to the Orioles vs. Red Sox betting trends, we’ll gladly take the plus money as this is a classic case of two teams heading in completely different directions.

When making MLB picks, also consider a play on the total as well, as we doubt either starting pitcher will last long and the Boston bullpen, especially, is already heavily taxed coming in.

MLB Pick: Orioles (+108)

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