Braves Have Huge Pitching Edge With Sale
The Atlanta Braves look to win three straight when they visit the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday. Chris Sale gets the start for Atlanta and he’s been brilliant, going 11-3 with a 2.71 ERA. He has 127 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings and has allowed 72 hits. The Braves vs D’Backs betting odds and picks have Sale a massive favorite in this spot.
Arizona will counter with rookie Yilber Diaz, making his MLB debut. He can bring the heat, but he also walks too many hitters. In the minor leagues this season he had 105 strikeouts and 38 walks in 76 innings. He averages just over five innings per start, so expect to see the Arizona bullpen plenty. That typically isn’t a good thing.
The line in this game is extremely high, making it tough to wager on Atlanta as road favorites. The best bet for your MLB picks today is to take the over 8 at -120.
Braves vs D’Backs Information & Pick
Atlanta Braves (49-39) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (45-45)
- Location of the game: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- Date & Time: Monday, July 8, 9:40 p.m. EST
- How to watch: Arizona Diamondbacks, Bally Sports South, MLB Network
Braves vs D’Backs Picks

- Pick: Over 8 (-105)
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Braves vs Diamondbacks
Chris Sale and the Braves are -200 over Diaz and the Diamondbacks. The Braves vs D’Backs betting odds and picks show that is the largest home underdog Arizona has been all season. Being a home dog isn’t a role that has suited Arizona well this Major League Baseball season this year. The Diamondbacks are just 1-8 as a home underdog. The price for Arizona is +170.
The total on the game is 8-over (-105), meaning the under 8 can be bet at even money. The MLB implied runs on the game is predicted close to a 5-3 victory for Atlanta, based on the different odds offered.
1Moneyline:
Atlanta -200, Arizona +170
2Total:
Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 runs (-115)
3Runline:
Atlanta -1.5 runs (-120), Arizona +1.5 runs (Even)
Starting Pitchers
Atlanta is 11-5 when Sale starts and have won three of his last four trips to the mound. On the road, the Braves are just 3-4 when Sale starts and 3-4 in totals. Sale has only faced Arizona twice in his career, with his teams winning both starts. He pitched against the Diamondbacks earlier this year with Atlanta and last year with the Boston Red Sox.
Diaz doesn’t have the most impressive stats in the minor leagues. He has career numbers of 13-24 with a 4.43 ERA. He does have the strikeouts, however, which is what MLB scouts love to see. A power pitcher can usually make the jump to the Majors easier than a finesse pitcher. Major League hitters are too tough to fool with a series of off-speed pitches. Diaz has 361 strikeouts in 282 2/3 innings, so he can overpower hitters when on his game.
Atlanta Braves: Pitching is the Game
Atlanta Braves is a pretty average team at the plate this season, scoring 4.3 runs per game compared to the MLB average of 4.4 runs per game. The key to the Braves’ success this season has been a pitching staff with a team ERA of 3.43, the second-best mark in baseball. The bullpen has done even better with a 2.97 ERA and 24 saves in 35 attempts.
Key Injuries
Infielder Brian Anderson, outfielder Michael Harris II, and pitcher Ian Anderson could all make their way back to Atlanta this month. Anderson is the closest, while Harris could return toward the end of the month. Anderson had Tommy John surgery in April 2023 and just made his fourth rehab start.
Betting Trends
The Braves are 18-18 as an away favorite this season and just 4-5 as an away favorite of -170 or higher.
Atlanta is 12-11 and 12-10 as a favorite after winning its two previous Major League Baseball Matchups.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Hitting Can’t Overcome Pitching Woes
The Arizona offense has been good this season, but the pitching has been worse. The Diamondbacks are averaging 4.9 runs per game, but allow 4.8 runs per game. Arizona is No. 29 in MLB Teams ERA with a 4.65 mark. The bullpen has been slightly better with a 4.44 ERA but has 15 blown saves in 34 opportunities.
Key Injuries
Pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez is on schedule to return to the team late this month after going on the MLB Injuries List in April. Starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery is expected to return after the All-Star Game. He was placed on the IL on July 2.
Betting Trends
Arizona is just 4-13 after winning its two previous games. The Diamondbacks are 13-17 on the season when facing a left-handed starter.
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Atlanta Offense in Need of Big Game
The Braves vs D’Backs betting odds and picks have odds too high to play Atlanta. The total is where it should be, but you can make a better case for the over than under.
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