Dodgers vs Astros Preview with Pick
The Houston Astros, clinging to a 1.0-game lead in the American League West, open a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday at Minute Maid Park.
Houston (53-49) has lost three of four but is 41-25 since May 9, orchestrating one of baseball’s best turnarounds. It turns to left-hander Framber Valdez to cool off the National League-West standings leader Dodgers (62-42), winners of six of seven to start the second half.
Los Angeles counters with right-hander Gavin Stone, one of the few reliable arms in its battered rotation.
Despite a rash of injuries, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a 7.5-game division lead and own the second-best win percentage (.596) in the NL behind Philadelphia (.627).
We look more closely at the matchup and give our Dodgers-Astros betting tips.
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Dodgers vs Astros Odds
Before our Dodgers betting analysis and Astros game predictions, the updated MLB odds:
Los Angeles, a team accustomed to being favored, finds itself as an underdog for only the 10th time this season. It’s 3-6 in the previous nine instances.
Houston may be only four games above .500 but has the second-best record in baseball since June 1 at 28-16. Only the Mets (30-15) have been better over that span.
Valdez has had a big hand in that success, going 5-2 with a 3.04 ERA over his last nine starts.
Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing our Dodgers-Astros betting tips.
Dodgers vs Astros Betting Preview
Starting Pitchers
Gavin Stone (LAD)
- The 25-year-old right-hander has had a tough July (6.39 ERA) but fared well in his last appearance, allowing one run over five innings against Boston on July 19.
- He’s second on the Dodgers in both innings (101.2) and quality starts (eight), bringing much-needed stability to the rotation amidst injuries.
Framber Valdez (HOU)
- In his most recent outing on July 20 against Seattle, Valdez went 5.2 innings, giving up two runs while walking four and striking out six.
- The Astros have won his last five starts, during which he owns a 2.99 ERA.
- The 30-year-old southpaw has allowed only nine home runs in 104 innings and is third on Houston in quality starts, with 10.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Key Injuries:
Shortstop Mookie Betts hasn’t played since June 16 because of a fractured hand. Betts (.304 AVG, 10 HR) swung a bat this week for the first time since the injury and also fielded some grounders, both positive signs as he works his way back. A return date has not been set.
Betting Trends:
The total has gone Over in four of Los Angeles’ last six games, improving its cover rate to 51.5%. The Dodgers have fared slightly better at home (31-22-1) than on the road (22-28) in that regard, which is important to remember when analyzing any free MLB picks.
Houston Astros
Key Injuries:
Outfielder Kyle Tucker (19 HR, 40 RBI, .979 OPS) has been on the IL since June 3 with a right shin contusion. General manager Dana Brown said Wednesday that he’s “optimistic” Tucker will return before September, indicating he’s still weeks away.
Betting Trends:
Houston has gone Under the total in 57 of its first 102 games, the third-highest rate (58.2%) in baseball ahead of Texas (58.6%) and Atlanta (62.5%).
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Pitchers’ Duel at Play
Again, it’s rare that bettors can get the Dodgers, prohibitive +330 World Series favorites, at plus odds, yet here we are. It’s a product of them being on the road and facing a two-time AL All-Star in Valdez, who has a 2.89 ERA this month.
As tempting as it may be to grab the Dodgers outright at +105, it’s risky to fade Houston at home.
Instead, we’re backing recent trends and looking for this to go under the implied MLB run total of 8.5. Bettors can get our Dodgers-Astros betting tip at -118 odds.
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