Subway Series Game 1 Analysis
Last week, Mets starter Luis Severino spoke about his former team and suggested the New York Yankees only have two good hitters in their lineup.
He said this after his former Yankees teammates acknowledged his fear of pitching against his former team. Severino’s start was moved the last time the Mets played the Yankees, and he will also not pitch against them this time.
But if nothing else, this back and forth has helped the rivalry of New York grow.
The Yankees are 60-42 but have lost their lead in the AL East. At this point, they’re 3.5 games out due to a pretty poor last couple of months. On the other hand, the Mets were extremely poor at the beginning of the MLB season but are now fighting for a National League Wild Card after a much better two months.
The crowd is always alive for these types of MLB games. Tonight won’t be different. We’ll see if the Yankees can feed off their home crowd’s energy for tonight’s Game 1 of the two-game series in the Bronx. The Yankees are -154 on the moneyline, with the total at 8.5. However, the Over is currently juiced to -120.
Let’s dive deeper into the Mets Yankees betting odds for tonight’s Subway Series matchup.
NY Mets vs. NY Yankees Information
New York Mets (51-48) vs. New York Yankees (60-42)
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 23, 2024, 7:05 pm ET
- Where to Watch: WPIX, YES, TBS
- Previous Meeting: The New York Mets defeated the New York Yankees, 12-2, at home on June 26, 2024.
Mets vs. Yankees Picks
- Pick: Mets (+141)
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Mets vs. Yankees Betting Analysis
The Yankees will use Luis Gil for tonight’s game. Gil is a right-hander who looked like Jacob deGrom at the beginning of the season, but he’s since fallen off. His ERA has jumped to 3.17, and Gil has allowed a super high ISO and wOBA to his last 45 lefties.
Gil has walked nearly 12% of batters this season and has allowed a high rate of fly balls with a low rate of ground balls. While Gil still has a high strikeout rate of 28.2%, his rate has also dipped over the last 30 days to 23.9%.
Meanwhile, Jose Quintana will get the start for the New York Mets. He’s a left-handed pitcher who has held his last 98 batters to a .295 wOBA. Quintana won’t earn a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s added 53.7% of ground balls over the previous 30 days.
Beyond that, Quintana has also kept walks down to 8.2% over the last month.
Gil has more potential, but Quintana has undoubtedly been more consistent.
Mets vs. Yankees Odds
Read on for the best Mets Yankees betting odds for tonight’s game, thanks to the MLB lines BetUS.
Sportsbook | Runline | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
BetUS Odds | Mets: +1½-150 Yankees: -1½+130 |
Mets: +141 Yankees: -156 |
O: 9-110 U: 9-110 |
BetNow Odds | Mets: +1½-150 Yankees: -1½+130 |
Mets: +141 Yankees: -156 |
O: 9-110 U: 9-110 |
MyBookie Odds | Mets: -1½+155 Yankees: +1½-135 |
Mets: +135 Yankees: -159 |
O: 8½-123 U: 8½+101 |
XBet Odds | Mets: -1½+110 Yankees: +1½-130 |
Mets: -147 Yankees: +125 |
O: 8½-114 U: 8½-108 |
Mets vs. Yankees Betting Preview & Updates
The Mets hoped to have Kodei Senga back for this series against the Yankees. However, the sophomore Japanese pitcher will start on Friday against the Braves instead, Mets have the pitching advantage tonight, but the Yankees will have the advantage tomorrow with Gerrit Cole on the mound.
Seeing Senga debut against Cole and the Yankees would’ve been fun. But that won’t happen.
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Mets vs. Yankees Recent Scores
The Mets Yankees betting odds have favored the Yankees in most recent head-to-head matchups. Yet, the Mets have won four of the last six games against the Yankees.
New York Mets Last Six Games
- July 13, 2024: 7-3 win vs Colorado Rockies
- July 14, 2024: 5-8 loss vs Colorado Rockies
- July 19, 2024: 4-6 loss at Miami Marlins
- July 20, 2024: 1-0 win at Miami Marlins
- July 21, 2024: 2-4 loss at Miami Marlins
- July 22, 2024: 6-4 win at Miami Marlins
New York Yankees Last Six Games
- July 13, 2024: 6-1 win at Baltimore Orioles
- July 14, 2024: 5-6 loss at Baltimore Orioles
- July 19, 2024: 6-1 win vs Tampa Bay Rays
- July 20, 2024: 1-9 loss vs Tampa Bay Rays
- July 21, 2024: 4-6 loss vs Tampa Bay Rays
- July 22, 2024: 9-1 win vs Tampa Bay Rays
Mets Analysis:
The Mets Are Buyers
- Heading into tonight’s game, the Mets are three games above .500 and currently have a National League Wild Card spot. This will allow the Mets to buy ahead of the trade deadline. They’ll also hold on to Pete Alonso, who is seeking a hefty deal in the offseason.
Betting Trend:
- A $100 bettor has won bettors $115 on the moneyline over the last ten games when betting on the Mets.
Yankees Analysis:
Yankees Need Help
The Yankees are notorious for making trades at the deadline. They’re always involved and looking to get better. This year will be no different. However, the last few deadline deals haven’t worked out in New York’s favor.
Maybe the Yankees’ fortunes will change this time around.
Betting Trend:
- A $100 bettor has lost $62 over the last ten games when betting on the Yankees on the moneyline.
Mets vs. Yankees Betting Prediction
Jose Quintana has been very consistent for the Mets this season. He might have a 4.13 ERA, but he’s been outstanding over the last month or so.
He’ll give up some power to righties, but overall, he’s held opponents off the base paths and has earned a high-ground ball rate with low walks.
Meanwhile, the Yankees’ projected lineup has collectively hit a .110 ISO and wOBA of .256 against lefties over the last 30 days. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have been elite, but the rest of the lineup hasn’t been. Severino pointed to that when speaking about the Yankees having two bats.
On the other hand, Luis Gil will get the call. He’s still getting high strikeouts and has limited walks better, especially against lefties. However, lefties have still hit a .302 ISO and wOBA of .380 against Gil over the last month. Expect the Mets to add as many lefties as possible in the lineup. Jeff McNeil is turning things around. Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor have been outstanding this season against righties.
Consider the Mets at +141 on the moneyline for Game 1 of this series as one of our free MLB picks for today.
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