Padres vs Orioles Analysis
The San Diego Padres will send struggling rookie Adam Mazur to the mound on Friday to face Grayson Rodriguez and the Baltimore Orioles. The Padres enter the series on a high note, having won their last five games. The Padres are leading MLB in team batting and hitting some home runs, although that hasn’t translated to scoring a lot of runs.
Baltimore isn’t playing its best baseball right now, but still hold a 2.0-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. The Orioles have shown a tendency to play to the level of their competition at times. Baltimore is 37-25 against teams over .500 and 24-16 against teams under .500.
Mazur is having a rough time of things in his rookie season. Opposing batters are hitting .306 against him, and he’s walking far too many hitters. He’s 1-3 with a 7.84 ERA in seven starts.
The Orioles are 13-5 when Rodriguez takes the mound, and he has a 12-4 record and 3.83 ERA. The Padres-Orioles matchup odds show Baltimore -205. With such a pitching mismatch on paper, the Orioles will be one of the popular MLB locks of the day for a number of bettors.
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San Diego Padres at Baltimore Orioles Betting Analysis
The Padres-Orioles matchup odds have the Orioles as massive home favorites, which is a role they’ve fared well in. Baltimore is 4-1 as a home favorite of at least -200 this season. The Padres are 3-2 as a road underdog of at least +150 on the year.
Padres vs Orioles Betting Preview & Updates
There’s no doubt the Padres are playing well and are going to continue their road trip, which is probably just fine by them. San Diego is 28-30 at home and 29-22 on the road this season. All five games of their current winning streak have come away from home.
Baltimore is just 4-6 over its last 10 games, which includes losing two of three to the hapless Marlins. The Orioles don’t have a big enough lead in the division to overlook weaker MLB teams.
Padres vs Orioles Recent Scores
This series will be the first time these teams meet this season, while the Padres won two of the three games played last season. That series was played in San Diego.
San Diego Padres Last 6
- July 19, 2024: 7-0 loss at Cleveland
- July 20, 2024: 7-0 win at Cleveland
- July 21, 2024: 2-1 win at Cleveland
- July 23, 2024: 4-0 win at Washington
- July 24, 2024: 12-3 win at Washington
- July 25, 2024: 3-0 at Washington
Baltimore Orioles Last 6
- July 19, 2024: 9-1 win at Texas
- July 20, 2024: 8-4 win at Texas
- July 21, 2024: 3-2 loss at Texas
- July 23, 2024: 6-3 loss at Miami
- July 24, 2024: 6-3 loss at Miami
- July 25, 2024: 7-6 win at Miami
San Diego Padres Analysis: Inconsistent in July
The San Diego Padres have been streaky in July, which is good when you’re winning. It wasn’t quite as nice earlier this month when San Diego dropped five straight. San Diego is 9-8 in July, and the offense has to shoulder much of the blame. The Padres are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this month.
Key Injuries
Padres manager Mike Shildt said the timeline of Fernando Tatis is still a bit “murky.” So, the late August or early September return still looks to be the case. Starting pitcher Joe Musgrove could make his first rehab start late next week after a positive bullpen session over the weekend.
Betting Trends to Know
San Diego’s 15-13 record is an away underdog is impressive on its own, but many of those losses were close. Six of those setbacks were by one run, giving the Padres a 21-7 record on the runline when road underdogs.
Baltimore Orioles: Offense Has Quieted Down
Even though the Baltimore Orioles are posting some impressive offensive MLB stats, the scoring has slowed down in July. The Orioles are averaging just 3.8 runs per game in July and are 8-10.
Key Injuries
Baltimore is expecting second baseman Jorge Mateo to miss a “significant amount of time.” Even though he was placed on the 10-day IL, the injury could be more severe than that. His arm was placed in a cast Tuesday.
Betting Trends to Know
The Orioles have dropped five straight games as a home favorite. Many of those games were blowout losses, as Baltimore was outscored 38-5 in those five games. That makes it a bit tough to use the Orioles in your picks and parlays for MLB, but Baltimore is too good not to bounce back.
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Padres vs Orioles Betting Prediction
Take the over 9 runs (-120) between the Padres and Orioles Friday night. Even though both teams have scored fewer runs in July, the two pitchers see more overs when they start. San Diego is 5-2 in totals when Mazur starts, and the Orioles are 11-5-2 with Rodriguez on the mound. The Padres-Orioles matchup odds are a little too high to play the Orioles.
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