The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will wrap up their second-to-last set in the season series Thursday night at Citizens Bank Park. The hosts have won each of the first two legs of the three-game bill by one run.
These clubs will face off again next week in Miami. Going into this one, Philly has won nine of the teams’ 14 clashes in 2022.
The Marlins won the past two-season series. Let’s break down this matchup before choosing what we should make as our Marlins vs Phillies bet.
Phillies vs. Marlins Matchup Information
The Phillies (75-61) are on a two-game winning streak right now, which follows a stretch in which they dropped six of seven and were swept on the road at San Francisco.
With less than a month remaining in the schedule, it’s unlikely Philly catches up to either the New York Mets or the Atlanta Braves, both of whom are fighting for the perch in the National League East.
Wild Card Spot
However, the Phillies currently hold a Wild Card spot and are fending off San Diego, Milwaukee, and the Giants for a seat at the playoff table.
The same can’t be said for Miami (55-80), who is almost surely out of reach in the postseason race. The Marlins are 19.5 games out of a Wild Card berth.
It doesn’t help their case that they’ve gone 1-9 in their last ten outings. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend holds with our Marlins vs Phillies bet.
Teams’ Performance Recap
The Phillies came out on the right side of a 4-3 decision Wednesday night, with hurler Bailey Falter earning his fourth win of the year. He spent 5.1 innings on the rubber, giving up two earned runs.
Meanwhile, right fielder Matt Vierling registered a pair of hits, including a double, and came all the way around twice.
Second baseman Jean Segura mashed a solo home run in the fourth frame, this after the Phillies opened the scoring a period earlier.
Runs of Courtesy
That pair of runs came courtesy of a two-run shot by shortstop Edmundo Sosa. Sosa notched a third RBI on the night on a double in the bottom of the seventh.
Third baseman Charles LeBlanc, first baseman Garrett Cooper, backstop Jacob Stallings, and center fielder JJ Bleday all had two knocks each for the Fish, who out-hit the home team, 10-8.
Solid Performance
The team went 1-6 with runners in scoring position, though, and left six on the basepaths. Trevor Rogers was tagged with the loss for Miami, despite spinning a solid performance. He went six innings, giving up three earned runs and punching out eight challengers.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds Breakdown
Before we make any Phillies or Marlins predictions, it would be a smart idea for us to check out some of the team stats — both at the plate and on the hill.
Phillies Batting Average
Philly is the better crew when it comes to team batting average, as they’re hitting .254 on the season. They rank in the top 10 of runs driven in, long balls, and total runs, as well.
Reigning league MVP Bryce Harper missed a good chunk of time with a broken thumb, leaving the likes of third baseman:
- Alec Bohm
- left fielder Kyle Schwarbe
- catcher J.T. Realmuto
To pick up the slack. Bohm is hitting a team-best .292, while Schwarber has 36 homers and 78 runs driven in. The latter’s long ball total is the second-highest in all of baseball.
Realmuto has turned in a .342 on-base percentage. Harper, who has since returned, has a .314 mark at the dish and has slugged 15 dingers.
Each of those four batters, along with right fielder Nick Castellanos and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, have clubbed double-digit homers.
Since the All-Star break, Bohm and Realmuto have hit at least .320, both having a minimum of 128 plate appearances.
Phillies an Average Staff
The Phillies are a somewhat average staff when it comes to throwing. They have a 3.88 team ERA but have the fourth-most quality starts in the bigs.
Marlins Batting Average
Miami has the third-worst collective average at the plate, turning in a .228 mark. Only Pittsburgh and Oakland have had a rougher time swinging the bats.
The Marlins are among the most impatient orders in the major leagues. They’ve only worked more walks than:
- the Athletics
- the Chicago White Sox
- Detroit
Those are the only three teams to have fewer RBIs, too. Dingers haven’t been Miami’s strong suit, either. Shortstop Miguel Rojas has a .229 batting average, while second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Who’s on the 60-day injured list — leads the lineup with 14 homers and 45 RBIs. Rojas also has a .275 on-base percentage.
Only four Fish have compiled double-digit homers, those being Jesus Aguilar — who was traded to Baltimore:
- left fielder Jorge Soler
- center fielder Jesus Sanchez
- Chisholm Jr
The Marlins, too, have been a middle-of-the-road sort of pitching squad. They have a 3.89 ERA, and 49 quality starts under their belts.
Philadelphia Phillies
If you’re planning on making Phillies picks, keep in mind that oddsmakers have them at +162 to cover -1.5. They’re -130 favorites on the moneyline, as well.
Miami Marlins
As the visitor, Miami is a +110 underdog. They’re -196 to cover +1.5.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Pick and Prediction
Now for our Marlins vs Phillies bet. Having right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the mound should make a sizable difference for Miami.
He’s 12-7 this go-round and is the owner of a 2.36 ERA, which is the fifth-lowest in MLB. His 170 strikeouts are ranked 12th, and he has a 1.00 WHIP.
He earned three winning decisions in August, including a complete-game effort against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He gave up six hits and an earned run in that one, also setting ten down on strikes.
Going up against him will be Philly’s Kyle Gibson, who’s 9-6 thus far. He has a 4.48 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
His last appearance was far from his best, as he allowed the Giants seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings of work. His team lost, 13-1.
Who to Bet On?
Taking that into account, look for Alcantara and Co. to spoil the Phillies plans on a sweep.
He’s been a bright spot for the Marlins this season and should want to begin to round out his campaign on a positive note. Miami will win outright, while the under hits, too.
MLB Pick: Marlins (+110)
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-118)
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