Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Analysis and Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies (62-49) and New York Mets (73-39) will go head-to-head in an NL East ball game.

The Phillies enter play playing well. They were in the midst of an impressive winning streak before losing on Thursday against the Miami Marlins. Nonetheless, this is a team making some noise at the right time.

Mets Winning Streak

But the Mets, who lead the division, happen to be playing out of their minds right now. New York is on a six-game winning streak and has a legitimate argument for the best team in baseball.

The Dodgers and Yankees might have something to say about that, but this Mets ball club is really good. So which team should you place your MLB betting selection on?

Can the Mets take care of business at home as the favorite, or will the Phillies upset the MLB odds on the road Let’s take a look at the Phillies vs. Mets betting prediction and odds? 

Teams Previous Scoreboards

As aforementioned, the Phillies lost to the Marlins on Thursday. However, they had won seven in a row previous to that defeat. So Philadelphia is playing inspired baseball at the moment. 

But the Mets enter this game having won six games in a row. They swept the Reds earlier this week and had an off-day on Thursday.

So New York is red hot and well-rested, which does not bode well for Philadelphia.  Nonetheless, this projects is an exciting contest. The Phillies believe they can upset the odds.

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Analysis

These two ball clubs are playing good baseball. But the New York Mets have Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98) set to take the mound on Friday night. 

Scherzer: MLB’s Best Pitchers

Scherzer is still one of MLB’s best pitchers despite his age. His ability to command the strikeout, mixed with his tenacity, makes him one of the most intimidating pitchers in the sport. 

Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.68) will start for Philadelphia. Suarez has been a vital piece of the puzzle for the Phillies.

He tends to get put on the back burner with Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler leading the charge, but the Phillies would not be where they are right now without Suarez’s contributions. But can he out-pitch Max Scherzer?

Suarez Expectations

The truth is that he doesn’t need to best Scherzer. As long as Suarez pitches well enough to keep the Phillies in the game, he will have done his job. 

Most people won’t be rolling with the Phillies purely based on the pitching matchup. But it will be more competitive than you may originally believe. 

Phillies Analysis

The Phillies have been one of the better teams in baseball over the past week. But they will enter this series short-handed. 

Bryce Harper remains out due to injury. However, Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game early due to a calf strain, and he might miss this entire series. At the very least, he will miss Friday’s game, barring an unbelievably quick recovery.

Philadelphia Without Hitters

So the Phillies are going up against Max Scherzer without two of their best hitters. That is never a recipe for success. Fortunately for Philadelphia, their lineup is deep enough to still put up a fight

But they will need a productive pitching performance from Ranger Suarez and the bullpen if they want to win this game. 

Mets Analysis

If Max Scherzer goes deep into this game and hands the ball off to Edwin Diaz, the Mets will win. 

Diaz should be well-rested after the team had an off day on Thursday. He’s been spectacular this year and has been one of the most important pieces to the puzzle for the Mets. 

As long as the offense provides some run support, the Mets should be in good shape to cover the run line on Friday.

MLB Injury Report Updates

As discussed earlier, Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game early, and his status is uncertain for the weekend. 

For the Mets, relievers Drew Smith and Tommy Hunter are on the 15-day IL. But the Mets’ bullpen has produced quality results despite their absences. 

Phillies vs. Mets Betting Preview

From a betting perspective, the Mets are 63-49 against the run line this year. But the Phillies are a respectable 58-53 against the run line this season.  So both teams have done a nice job of covering the run line. 

At home, the Mets are 29-17 against the run line. The Phillies are 31-22 against the run line on the road. So Philadelphia has done a good job of covering when playing away from their home field. 

Mets’ Favor

But the odds fall back into the Mets’ favor when they are projected to win. The Mets are 48-37 against the run line when playing as a favorite. That is second in all of baseball, behind only the Dodgers.

But the Phillies have a 25-13 record against the run line as the underdog, which is the sixth-best mark in baseball. 

Both of these teams have been good against the run line in 2022. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Betting Prediction

So who covers the run line? And who ends up winning? Right now, I wouldn’t advise betting against the Mets at home with Max Scherzer on the mound.

This should be a competitive game, but take the Mets on the moneyline.  I also like New York as a narrow-spread favorite.

Who to Bet On?

Look for Edwin Diaz to enter the game in ninth with a two or three run line and shut the door. Roll with the Mets -1.5. 

The Mets are the favorites according to most sportsbooks.  If you want to take a chance on the run line/spread, take the Mets at -1.5. But if you’d rather go for the straight-up/moneyline bet, you can simply bet the Mets to win the game outright.

MLB Pick: Mets -1.5 (+105)

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