Red Sox vs Orioles Preview & Pick
In a crucial AL East matchup, the Red Sox vs Orioles betting predictions lean toward the home team. The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox for the first of a four-game series tonight. The Orioles are 71-50 on the MLB standings. Still, they’ve lost some ground in the AL East over the last few weeks. Baltimore is no longer ahead of the Yankees in the division, sitting a half game back of New York. That said, Baltimore has a healthy lead for an AL Wild Card spot as we get closer to the playoffs.
Boston elected to skip Nick Pivetta’s turn in the rotation last week. However, they’ll let him start tonight’s game against the Orioles to get things started. The Red Sox are coming off a loss, while the Orioles added a win yesterday.
Ultimately, Boston and Baltimore have scored at a high rate this season. However, Baltimore Orioles pitching has been slightly better overall. It’s why the Orioles have a 90-run differential, and the Red Sox have just a 25-run differential.
The Orioles are also favorites in Game 1 of the series. The Orioles are -145 on the moneyline, with the total stuck at 8.5. However, the Over is juiced to -115.
Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds
Review our Red Sox vs Orioles betting predictions for tonight’s game below and win big with our MLB odds at BetUS and Other Sportsbooks.
Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Betting Preview
Starting Pitchers
- The Boston Red Sox will pitch Nick Pivetta. He’s a righty who has dominated with strikeouts but has also allowed a .272 ISO and wOBA of .337 over the last month. Righties have hit more power against Pivetta. In addition, he’s given up 56.6% of hard contact and has allowed 28.3% of line drives with just 24.5% of ground balls induced.
- The Orioles will roll with Zach Eflin. Eflin won’t rack up strikeouts like Pivetta. However, he’s limited batters to 22.1% of fly balls and has induced 43.2% of ground balls over the last month.
The starting pitcher information below will help with our Red Sox vs Orioles betting predictions.
Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.44 ERA)
- Nick Pivetta has struck out 34.1% of batters over the last 30 days.
- The right-hander took a break from starting last week and was skipped in the rotation.
- Pivetta has allowed 39.6% of fly balls over the last month.
Zach Eflin (8-7, 3.83 ERA)
- Zach Eflin has struck out only 20.3% of batters over the last month.
- Eflin has held his last 128 batters to a .117 ISO and wOBA of .300 in the previous 30 days.
- The righty has allowed just 4.7% of walks to his last 128 batters.
Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Team Analysis
Boston Red Sox
- Jarren Duran returned to the Red Sox lineup yesterday after a two-game suspension.
- Nick Pivetta will get the start after taking a break from the rotation last week.
Baltimore Orioles
- Big trade deadline acquisition Trevor Rogers has underwhelmed for the Orioles.
- Closer Craig Kimbrel could lose their ninth-inning role with the Orioles if he continues to struggle.
Can The Orioles Connect?
The projected lineup for the Baltimore Orioles has hit a .160 ISO and wOBA of .306 against righties over the last month. In addition, the squad has struck out 26.1% of the time and has earned just 8.3% of walks. The strikeouts will be high for the Orioles against Pivetta. That’s a given. However, if Baltimore can connect on Pivetta’s mistakes, they’ll add runs and improve their MLB standings. After all, this is how Pivetta’s starts usually go. He’ll dominate with high strikeouts, but anytime a player hits the ball, it’s launched with hard contact and lots of power.
Ultimately, the Orioles have six batters in the lineup that have hit an ISO of at least .154 against righties over the last month. Likely, the Orioles will still find success offensively in tonight’s game. Remember this when you’re adding your MLB picks and parlays for the day.
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It’s Harder To Hit Eflin
Using MLB scores and odds, it’s clear that the Orioles have an advantage. The Boston Red Sox have combined to hit a .189 ISO and wOBA of .354 with their projected lineup over the last 30 days against righties.
The lineup has shown more consistency than Baltimore’s. However, Zach Eflin of the Orioles has also pitched consistently. Eflin, who came from the Rays, has a 3.83 ERA with Baltimore. He’s striving with the Orioles after leaving the Rays.
Boston Red Sox will mostly have lefties in the lineup. Yet, Eflin, despite being a righty, has allowed a .290 wOBA to his last 65 lefties. He’s also limited line drives to 18.8%. Batters aren’t making solid contact against Eflin like they are against Pivetta.
Per our Red Sox vs Orioles betting predictions, you’ll want to back the Orioles in Game 1 of this series.
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