O, Canada! Baseball’s new post-season format will debut in the North, where the Toronto Blue Jays and a guaranteed insane Canadian crowd welcome the Seattle Mariners for the American League Wild Card playoff series. The Mariners snapped a twenty-year playoff drought to claim a wild card spot, while the Blue Jays were one of three American League East teams that fought their way into the postseason.
We’ll review the odds, stats, and head-to-head season series for this Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis to give you the best pick for your betting ticket. The first pitch for Seattle vs. Toronto is scheduled for Friday, October 7th, 2022, at 4:07 P.M. ET from Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. You can catch game 1 of the MLB American League Wild Card playoff series on ESPN.
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Odds
As a part of this Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis on this MLB game today, we need to review the odds.
Online sportsbooks have the moneyline set with the Toronto Blue Jays as the betting favorite, listed between -141 and -149. The Seattle Mariners are listed as the significant underdog on the moneyline between +122 and +130.
Most online sportsbooks have Toronto (-1.5) as the betting underdog on the run line spread, with odds listed between +145 and +158. Most online sportsbooks have Seattle (+1.5) as the betting favorite on the run line spread, listed between -175 and -196.
Online sportsbooks have the total runs listed at 7. The over is listed with odds ranging between +100 and -112, while the under is listed between -108 and -118 (7 runs).
Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Seattle Mariners finished the MLB season with a 90-72 record (.556 winning percentage). The Mariners went 44-37 on the road in 2022, which is important since this first-round MLB post-season will be played entirely and Toronto. With the season winding down, the Mariners continued their strong play and push to the last game of the season.
The Seattle Mariners are 7-3 in their last ten games, averaging 4.8 runs per game, raising their season average to 4.26. Over this same ten-game stretch, the Mariners have surrendered 4.7 runs per game to opposing hitters, raising their season average to 3.85 runs per game. Seattle ranks 18th in average runs scored per game while ranking 7th in MLB for opposition runs scored per game.
The Toronto Blue Jays finished the 2022 MLB season with a 90–72 record (.468 winning percentage). The Blue Jays had a 47-34 record at Rogers Centre during the 2022 season. The Blue Jays have played excellent baseball to close out the season and ensure they would have home-field advantage for the first round of the MLB playoffs.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a 7-3 record in their last ten games, averaging 5.4 runs per game, raising their season average to 4.34. During this same stretch, the Blue Jays have averaged 2.6 opposition runs per game, dropping their season average to 4.19 runs per game. The Blue Jays rank 4th in average runs scored per game while ranking 13th in MLB for opposition runs scored per game.
Of note for any Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis is that the Seattle Mariners won the head-to-head series 5-2. Toronto won the first two games in Toronto back in May, while Seattle won the next five head-to-head matchups, including a four-game sweep in Seattle back in July. Only two of these head-to-head matchups finished within a one-run spread.
As for the MLB injury report, the Mariners have Jarred Kelenic listed as day-to-day, while the Blue Jays have pitcher Kevin Gausman listed as day-to-day, left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Santiago Espinal due to come off the 10-day injured reserve list and potentially onto the post-season roster.
Starting Pitchers
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo scheduled to start against the Blue Jays on Friday night. Castillo finished 2022 with an 8-6 record in twenty-five appearances, pitching to a 2.99 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
The Mariners have won three of Castillo’s previous five appearances, with none of those matchups ending in a one-run spread. In his last outing, Castillo pitched six complete innings, giving up two hits and one run, while striking out eight on the way to a 5-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on October 1.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah scheduled to throw the first pitch of the Jays’ post-season Friday night in Toronto. Manoah had a 16-7 record in thirty-two appearances, pitching to a 2.24 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.
Toronto has won three of Manoah’s last five appearances, with none of these appearances ending within a one-run spread. Manoah is Toronto’s unexpected pitching staff ace and has won his previous three outings, two of which were against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Predictions and Picks
The MLB odds on the moneyline favor the Blue Jays because this series is being played in Toronto, where the Blue Jays have a real home-field advantage. Toronto went 92-70 on the moneyline in 2022, while Seattle went 90-72 on the moneyline. We think Manoah is the better pitcher and that he’s going to pitch the Blue Jays to a win in front of a crowd of crazy Canadians filling the Rogers Centre.
In our Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis, we’re taking the Blue Jays on the moneyline to win the first game of this series.
The Blue Jays are 83-75-3 on the total runs over/under, while the Mariners are 75-77-8 in 2022. We rarely touch the total runs for our betting tickets, and these two teams’ records on the total runs are evident why: these bets are almost a 50-50 proposition and don’t pay off nearly enough. But the Toronto Blue Jays’ potent offense is playing in this game which always makes a pick on the over a potential play.
That leaves us considering wagering on the run line spread in this Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis. We’re picking the Toronto Blue Jays to win and cover the run line spread of -1.5 on Friday night in Toronto (+145 to +158). The Blue Jays went 74-87 ats, while the Mariners went 81-79 ats.
If we’re making only one pick from this Mariners vs Blue Jays betting analysis, we’re taking Alek Manoah to pitch the Toronto Blue Jays to a win and a 1-0 lead in the American League Wild Card series, covering the run line spread of -1.5 at +145 to +158 odds.
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