In the co-main event slot of Bellator 288, the lightweight title is on the line when Patricky Pitbull (24-10) defends his belt against the undefeated Usman Nurmagomedov (15-0) in Chicago this weekend.
Let’s break down the styles of these two elite fighters to formulate a Pitbull vs. Nurmagomedov betting analysis and predict the most likely outcome of this title bout.
Last Fight Record
Pitbull was coming off an impressive TKO victory over Peter Queally over a year ago in November 2021.
Nurmagomedov is fresh off of a submission victory over Christopher Gonzalez in July of this year.
Matchup Information
- November 19, 2022
- Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois
- Showtime PPV
Pitbull vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Analysis
Patricky Pitbull
Pitbull is a legend of MMA all over the world and one of the fighters that have carried Bellator throughout the years, along with his brother.
He brings exciting fights to the fans and has fought every one of the best fighters he could in his career.He holds the Bellator record for lightweight knockouts with 10 in his career.
Most of All Time in Bellator
That is also tied with Michael Page for most of all time in Bellator. Pitbull also has 23 fights in Bellator MMA, the most in Bellator lightweight history.
To add to his accolades, Pitbull is tied with the great Michael Chandler for most wins (15) and stoppages (10) in Bellator lightweight history. He will be by far the toughest test of Nurmagomedov’s career, just by merit alone.
Usman Nurmagomedov
Nurmagomedov is coming into this fight with a physical advantage over Pitbull. He will enjoy a 4-inch height advantage with only about an inch in reach.
Along with the measurements, Nurmagomedov is also 12 years younger than Pitbull.
Usman’s Lack of Experience
His lack of experience might be a negative, but you can’t deny this is a young athlete’s game, and the body of the young Degastani probably is feeling much better than Pitbull’s.
Nurmagomedov has 13 finishes in his 15 career fights. Eight of those have been via knockout, and then five via submission.
Patricky has only been finished four times in his 34 career fights. It will be a challenging task to get a finish, but the dominant style of Nurmagomedov is tough to deny.
Bellator Injury Report
No injuries were reported in the lead-up to this fight.
Patricky Pitbull has mentioned several times in the media that he doesn’t think Nurmagomedov deserves this title fight, as the 24-year-old has only been in Bellator for a year and a half.
Patricky Pitbull vs. Usman Nurmagomedov Betting Preview
Bellator MMA odds have Usman Nurmagomedov as the massive betting favorite at -600 going up against someone that would be on the “Mt. Rushmore” of Bellator.
These lines are appalling to see for Pitbull, who is currently the +425 underdog.
Odds Breakdown
On top of that, the under 2.5 rounds is -160 for this 5-round title fight. Oddsmakers suggest that Nurmagomedov is going to make quick work of the Bellator MMA legend.
This is a confusing line due to how durable Pitbull is and the level of fighting he brings to the table.
Pitbull will be looking to defend takedowns the best he can and be as threatening from his back as possible when he inevitably ends up there.
Expectations for the Brazilian
When on the feet, expect to see the Brazilian be very aggressive and try to keep Nurmagomedov on his back foot.
Nurmagomedov is just a dominant force inside the cage. He has elite striking and grappling, the best combination of the two I’ve seen since Zabit Magomedsharipov, the former UFC lightweight contender. If you miss watching Zabit, tune into Bellator 288.
It will be strange to make Bellator picks this weekend, seeing Patricky as such a massive underdog.
The fandom of him will keep the percentage of bets on his side for the most part, but this looks like the passing of the torch in Bellator lightweight history.
Pitbull vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Predictions
Even though Pitbull will be dangerous for Nurmagomedov at all times, and you can never count him out, it is going to be tough for him to come away with this victory. Nurmagomedov is such a great all-around fighter with elite skills.
Pitbull will need to invest heavily in calf kicks and applying pressure if he can compromise Nurmagomedov’s front leg, this fight changes.
The stress and volume of strikings thrown by Pitbull will be his best chance to succeed in a major upset win.
In one of the toughest MMA picks to make, you need to pick Nurmagomedov to win this fight. He is just too good all-around, and with Khabib and the AKA team in his corner, it will be hard to see him not leave with the Bellator belt around his waist.
Who to Bet On?
After breaking down the Pitbull vs. Nurmagomedov betting analysis, all signs point to the 24-year-old undefeated fighter. He can use his wrestling and toughness to slowly break down an older Pitbull.
With there being literally no value in a Nurmagomedov pick, and if you still want to make a play on this fight, the over 2.5 rounds are very appealing. Pitbull is so tough and so good that it is easy to see him lasting into the championship rounds.
Bellator 288 Pick:
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