In the headlining bout of Bellator 288, the light heavyweight champion Vadim Nemkov (15-2) and top contender Corey Anderson (16-5) will run it back after their No Contest decision in April of this year.
Their first meeting ended because of an accidental clash of heads at the end of the 3rd round.
The Nemkov vs. Anderson betting analysis and prediction is very interesting to break down. It will help sports bettors get a clearer look at this matchup if they aren’t very familiar.
Last Fight Record
Outside of the first meeting, Nemkov submitted Julius Anglickas in the 4th round of their fight in October of 2021.
Before the first fight against Nemkov, Anderson did quick work of legend Ryan Bader with a TKO win just 51 seconds into the fight.
Matchup Information
- November 19, 2022
- Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois
- Showtime PPV
Nemkov vs. Anderson Betting Analysis
Vadim Nemkov
Nemkov is looking to make his 3rd title defense this weekend against Corey Anderson. Before MMA, Nemkov was a dominant athlete in Combat Sambo. He has four world championships under his belt.
This dangerous man has a lot to prove to himself and the fans.
The interesting thing about this fight is that we already have about three full rounds of the same matchup, which took place seven months ago.
Nemkov’s Struggle
Nemkov was struggling with Anderson’s wrestling and ground-and-pound from the top position.
This was the first time anyone in Bellator had challenged the physicality of Nemkov in the cage, and it didn’t look like he was ready for it.
With no Bellator stats available to break down the numbers, it is tough to compare the two from an analytical standpoint. We know this fight will likely have big exchanges on the feet and great scrambles with wrestling.
Corey Anderson
Anderson is coming off of a very important performance against Nemkov in April. He proved to himself and Nemkov that he could dominate exactly how he said he was. Anderson matched his opponent’s physical attributes and just imposed his will.
After taking the high road and admitting to the ref that their heads clashed, he has had to wait seven months for his chance to win a world title.
This might have been because he will be near his hometown in Illinois for this one while headlining the event.
Anderson’s Confidence
The confidence in Anderson is sky-high at the moment. He has great wrestling and ground-and-pound that gave Nemkov a lot of problems in their first meeting.
Anderson has also faced a tougher set of opponents and has more experience going into deep water.
Bellator Injury Report
No injuries were reported in the lead-up to this fight. Anderson is confident in his ability to win from his performance in their first fight.
Their first meeting was ruled a No-Contest via an accidental clash of heads.
Vadim Nemkov vs. Corey Anderson Betting Preview
Moneyline
Bellator MMA odds have Anderson as the betting favorite at -235. This is a big difference from their first fight, where Anderson was the +150 underdog. Nemkov is the underdog for this bout at +185.
MMA picks get tricky to make when there is a rematch like this, especially when there wasn’t a winner in the first meeting.
All we can take from the first meeting is that Anderson had the upper hand, and his confidence shows us that.
Total
The over/under is set at 3.5 rounds, with their last fight hitting the over 3.5 mark. The fight going the distance is currently at plus odds, so that is a big prop bet to look at this week.
In Nemkov’s last two fights, we have seen him get dropped in the Grand Prix semifinals and then arguably dominated in the finals against Anderson prior to the clash of heads.
Anderson was visibly bigger and stronger than Nemkrov, and that played a big role.
Fighters’ Mental State
One last part of the Nemkov vs. Anderson betting preview is the mental state of both fighters heading into Chicago for this rematch.
Anderson wants to win this belt more than anything. He has even said he doesn’t think about the million-dollar prize, and he just wants the belt.
Nemkov must be struggling because he was beaten at his own game in the last fight. He has not done a lot of media at all leading up to this weekend, and it is a big question mark on how he will show up.
Bellator picks trends have shown that the betting favorite wins most of the time.
Nemkov vs. Anderson Betting Predictions
It would be a strange decision to go with anybody other than Corey Anderson this weekend in front of an Illinois crowd to earn his first world championship.
The Nemkov vs. Anderson betting prediction comes from the styles and momentum of both fighters.
Anderson has all the confidence in the world and is ready to finish what he started in April. Nemkov seemed to have no answer to Anderson’s top pressure with ground-and-pound. It looked like Anderson broke Nemkov.
Who to Bet On?
When Nemkov has faced elite talent and confidence, he has had trouble. He lost to current UFC champion Jiri Prochazka in the RIZN promotion years ago, and it was a very similar fight.
Anderson is going to be able to put pressure on Nemkov early and land some heavy shots that send Nemkov into a panic state.
At some point, the fight will end up on the ground, with Anderson on top beating up Nemkov.
I think this is going to be a 5-round war, with Anderson winning 49-46 on the scorecards. It will be a sweet victory for Anderson as he can finally say he is a champion.
Bellator 288 Pick: Anderson (-235)
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