UFC 282 is coming to the famous T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend. In a short notice cancellation of the light heavyweight title fight set to headline, this co-main event has been upgraded to be the headlining fight for the light heavyweight title.
Jan Blachowicz (29-9) has his opportunity to get back that light heavyweight gold against a rising star in Magomed Ankalaev (17-1). Read along for a Blachowicz vs Ankalaev betting analysis and prediction.
Last Fight Record
Blachowicz is coming off a TKO win due to an injured knee to top contender Aleksander Rakic back in May of this year.
Ankalaev beat UFC veteran Anthony Smith via TKO in the second round the last time he was in the octagon back in July.
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Betting Analysis
Jan Blachowicz
The “Polish Power” of Blachowicz has run through the UFC light heavyweight division. During his recent title run, he KO’d big-time fighters like:
- Luke Rockhold
- Corey Anderson
- Dominick Reyes
Then, he defended his belt against MMA legend Israel Adesanya. His power was the main story of this most recent run, but you can’t forget that he has nine submission victories to add to his nine KO victories in his career.
Blachowicz and His Opponent’s Neck
Blachowicz has the ability to find his opponent’s neck in many different positions.
Blachowicz lands 3.55 strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.77. Along with that elite striking, he averages over one takedown per 15 minutes in the octagon at a 53% clip; while also having a 66% takedown defense.
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev has been on quite the run in the UFC light heavyweight division leading up to his first title shot. Since losing to Paul Craig in his UFC debut, he has rattled off nine-straight wins.
Five of those wins have been via TKO/KO.
Even though Ankalaev is from Dagestan, he doesn’t use grappling as his primary offensive weapon.
He loves to strike with his opponent, and he has some of the cleanest, most technical striking for someone of his size in the world.
6’3″ Frame
His big 6’3″ frame allows him to hit opponents at a distance with powerful kicks and long, straight punches.
In the UFC, Ankalaev averages an impressive 3.64 strikes landed per minute while absorbing only 2.14, which are very comparable stats to Blachowicz.
His 86% takedown defense is enough to let his opponent know that it isn’t a great idea to use the energy shooting takedowns on him all day.
Bellator Injury Report
Jiri Prochazka pulled himself out of the UFC 282 main event bout against Glover Texeira due to injury.
He also has vacated the light heavyweight belt in respect to the other contenders, knowing the recovery process will be long.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Betting Preview
Former champion Jan Blachowicz is surprisingly a pretty sizable +215 underdog in this title fight.
This may be because he is almost 40 years old and going up against a fresh 30-year-old, or this might be the sub-par performance he has shown in his last title fight against Glover Texeira.
Ankalaev is the -255 betting favorite, according to UFC odds. This top contender has shown a lot of impressive skills throughout his UFC title run and doesn’t look like a good matchup for anyone in the world.
MMA Odds
MMA odds can be interesting to follow from fight to fight, watching how the lines trend for both the favorite and underdog.
Even though Blachowicz is the underdog, he has many ways to win this fight. He has shown how strong his kicks can be both to the body and the legs of his opponents.
He has done some serious damage to guys like Reyes and Rakic that have led to the finish of the fight.
Blachowicz also has very good grappling if he is the one engaging. It will be tough to take Ankalaev down, but just showing level changes might lead to more openings in the striking game as well.
World-class Striker
Ankalaev is a world-class striker. He has power in both hands and great kicks to the body, head, and legs. This is going to be a massive test for Blachowicz trying to contain the diverse attacks of Ankalaev.
Both fighters have shown big mistakes on the ground. Ankalaev’s only loss was because he entered Paul Craigs’ guard carelessly in the final seconds of their fight, leading to a triangle being locked up on him as time was running out.
Lack of Awareness
Blachowicz has also shown a lack of awareness on the ground against Glover Texeira when he lost the belt.
The Blachowicz vs Ankalaev betting analysis showed how closely matched these two fighters are statistically and analytically.
The deciding factor will be whoever can find a path to victory in this fight. Someone is going to have to show a wrinkle in their game to get the job done.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Betting Predictions
As we have said before, this fight is very closely matched, and both fighters have paths to victory.
Blachowicz has shown he can strike with elite kickboxers like Adesanya; Ankalaev has shown he can just be too much for even some of the best fighters in the world. Be careful in this one when making MMA picks.
The final Blachowicz vs Ankalaev betting prediction will go to the former champion getting the job done. This is a very interesting take in this matchup, but Blachowicz just wants this belt back too much to count him out.
The factor that makes this prediction is the value of betting on Blachowicz. He has +215 Bellator odds currently, and that is a big payday for bettors that believe in him. He has the power to hurt Ankalaev and the fight IQ to be safe for 25 minutes.
Who to Bet On?
If Blachowicz comes in with the same focus and patience as he did with Adesanya, he will be able to frustrate Ankalaev enough to open up paths to victory for himself.
As stated before, the wrinkles in the game plan to win fights are what will get this job done.
The experience that Blachowicz has and the way he fights can lead to many different wrinkles in his game. Look for late-round level changes that will steal rounds away on the judges’ scorecards.
Blachowicz, by decision, is something that is possible with the durability of both men. It is going to be a career-best performance out of the former champion and his legendary Polish Power.
Bellator Pick:
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