One of the biggest stories of the MMA community to start 2023 is that Jake Paul signed a massive deal with the PFL. In the big announcement video posted by the PFL and Jake Paul, Paul talks about how he will run a new super-fight division and compete in boxing and MMA for the PFL.
Paul also did something that got a lot of people’s attention. He called out MMA legend Nate Diaz, telling him to sign a 2-fight deal for the PFL that would include a boxing and MMA match against Paul himself.
Can This Fight Even Happen?
The short answer is yes, Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz can happen this year. Diaz hasn’t been too vocal about Jake Paul specifically, even though there have been some altercations involving the Diaz Army and Paul’s team.
We know that the PFL is open to paying a big name like Diaz a lot of money, especially with a fight like this that will do very well on PPV buys. We know that Paul is a legit fighter and will step into that ring or cage with someone like Diaz. But the only question is if Diaz will accept the fight.
There are a lot of cons to a deal like this for Diaz. If he’s tied down to two fights, what happens if he gets KO’d in boxing the first time? Does he still want to fight for a second time? What if Paul loses in boxing, and the fight in MMA really doesn’t make sense? Is this worth potentially being embarrassed by a public figure like Jake Paul?
How to Bet on Paul vs. Diaz
A potential Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz bout has not been signed or anything like that. But some major sportsbooks have released future odds for this matchup. In the boxing match, Paul is the betting favorite at around -300. For MMA, Diaz is the huge -1000 betting favorite.
I’m not a fan of MMA odds being that massive, but anyone that knows about the sport can see that Diaz will be highly favored with MMA rules.
If this fight gets finalized, make sure you take your time with making MMA picks because this fight would be more of a spectacle than a legit MMA bout. It’s going to be a weird-looking fight, and we truly have no idea what it will look like.
Fight Analysis
Sports bettors need to stop overthinking Jake Paul and the spectacles he puts on for fans. They are no more than that: spectacles to draw eyeballs and money. The casual fight fan might not realize how big of an advantage Paul has over non-boxers, even if he has only been in a boxing gym for a handful of years.
Someone with the athleticism and youth that Paul has, along with all that money to pay for the best team, coaches, recovery, etc., is going to be a tough man to beat. Even if you are old and have never boxed before.
Nate Diaz is a legend in MMA. He is a slick black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Also, he has unlimited cardio and will go down as one of the most durable fighters to ever step foot in a cage. But let’s face it: Diaz will get out-boxed by Paul.
Anderson Silva just got out-boxed by Paul. Snap out of it.
The David vs Goliath MMA Matchup
In the MMA portion of this make-believe fight contract that Diaz might sign someday, Diaz is the heavy favorite for a reason. Yes, the 4-ounce gloves give a guy like Paul a puncher’s chance; but Diaz is levels above him in MMA. Even way more than Paul is levels beyond him in boxing.
In a Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz MMA fight, Diaz could do whatever he wanted with Paul in the cage. Imagine Paul taking leg kicks at 100% for the first time? He might want to quit after absorbing about five.
He could if Diaz wanted to try out a new slick takedown he learned. Diaz could pull guard and wait for Paul to make one little mistake and finish the fight right there.
Diaz’s black belt in jiu-jitsu will make for a quick night against Paul in an MMA cage as soon as Diaz gets his hands on Paul.
Think back to James Toney’s foray into MMA against former UFC Heavyweight and Light-heavyweight Champion Randy Couture at UFC 118. Couture secured a quick and simple takedown and stopped Toney quickly. That fight was as spectacularly one-sided as possible in an MMA cage, without the referee having to make the save.
A Fight for the Fans
A Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz series of fights is a very exciting idea, and hopefully, they will make that fight for the fans. It’s hard even to imagine the commotion it would start in the fight game with a gangster like Nate Diaz going in there to fight the seemingly impossible-to-like former Disney Channel star and YouTuber.
The Diaz army’s fandom is riding on Diaz’s shoulders to be the one to cut Paul’s run to glory short. It would be awesome, and we’re sure Diaz would have some line about not being surprised after getting a win over Paul.
The 2023 MMA fights schedule already looks unbelievable, stacked week by week with great fights and the best in the world going up against each other. This spectacle of a fight would be a fun change-up and good for business in the PFL.
Final Advice
Like what was said before, don’t overthink these fights. Paul will most likely win in a boxing match, and Diaz will win easily in this MMA event.
Social media will try to start these narratives to get the conversation and clicks going for certain accounts, but this matchup is pretty simple to predict and bet on. You don’t want to lose money from betting on a long shot to happen.
But no matter what, Paul vs Diaz would be an awesome event to watch and enjoy as a true combat sports fan.
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