In the final PFL event of the 2022 MMA schedule, on a card full of championship fights, the headliner will be undefeated lightweight Kayla Harrison (15-0) going up against Larissa Pacheco (18-4) for the third time in their careers.
Read further for a full fight breakdown and a Harrison vs Pacheco prediction.
Last Fight Record
Harrison is coming off a submission victory over Martina Jindrova in August.
Pacheco is riding the momentum from her first 3-0 PFL season, fresh off a great first-round TKO victory over Olena Kolesnyk in August.
Harrison vs. Pacheco Betting Analysis
Kayla Harrison
Harrison is clearly the best fighter in the world at her weight class. There has been some strong takes surrounding her choice to stay with the PFL and not go to the UFC or Bellator to fight better competition. But if she can be the massive favorite to win $1 million every year, why would she move?
The thing that makes this fight even a little more interesting to bet on is the fact that Pacheco started to look better in the 5th round of their title fight in 2019.
Harrison Defending Title
Harrison has clearly gotten better all-around since then and is going to be ready to defend her title on Friday night.
Harrison has 12 finishes in her perfect 15-0 career so far. She will always been searching for a finish when she walks into the cage, and it feels like this one might be a chance for a statement to be made with a dominating finish over Pacheco
Larissa Pacheco
Pacheco is the reason people are looking forward to this fight more than the usual matchups that Kayla Harrison has.
Pacheco has two fights to look back on against Harrison and make adjustments, and she is about the same size physically as her.
Pacheco is on a ridiculous 5-fight first-round KO streak in the PFL and is ready to pull off one of the biggest upsets in women’s MMA history.
Solid Guard
She has a very solid guard off her back and has the boxing ability to knock Harrison out.
Pacheco has only gotten finished twice in her 22-fight career, so that is a tough task for Harrison, as their first two meetings went to a decision as well.
A whopping 17 out of Pacheco’s 18 career wins have come via KO or submission. A finish is for sure in the cards for a
Harrison vs. Pacheco Prediction
No injuries were reported in the lead-up to this fight. This fight is on the first PFL ESPN+ PPV card.
Kayla Harrison vs. Larissa Pacheco Betting Preview
Harrison is currently the -600 betting favorite to win the PFL women’s lightweight title again, according to MMA odds.
This is officially the first time she has been less than a -1000 favorite to win a fight since her first PFL fight in 2018. That is unprecedented in the sport of MMA.
Pacheco is coming in as the +425 underdog. This feels like its too little of plus-odds for a fight with Kayla Harrison, but Pacheco has shown her dominance the last 2 years and is on the top of her game and most likely at her peak in her career.
There is no doubt that the defending champion is going to look to take Pacheco down for all 5 rounds.
Look for Harrison to use her famous Judo trips and throws to take Pacheco to the canvas, but get right into side control and out of her jiu-jitsu guard. Pacheco can be very solid off her back and make it tough for Harrison to pass her guard into more dominant positions.
Pacheco will need to put a lot of pressure on the champion. Harrison is not used to fighting on her back foot and to have constant pressure in her face.
If Pacheco can keep Harrison on the defensive early on, she will be able to land more punches and leg kicks, as well as take more out of Harrison’s gas tank.
Harrison vs. Pacheco Betting Predictions
Kayla Harrison is the hardest fighter in the world to make MMA picks on with money on the line. She literally has no value in any moneyline, so you have to set up a prop bet to predict her exact method of victory.
Who to Bet On?
My Harrison vs Pacheco prediction is simply that Harrison will win. It is too much to put money down on Pacheco with how dominant and focused Harrison is coming into this fight week.
But, be prepared to watch Harrison face a little more adversity than she is used to.
Harrison has experimented with competing at the Olympic level against the best Judo specialists in the world; she will be ready to face adversity in the cage.
Of course, she is human and has that off-switch on her chin, but Pacheco is going to have a lot of trouble getting on the offensive attack and causing damage to Harrison.
This is a great fight to add to a parlay with the moneyline odds. If not, it’s seeming like a ground-and-pound finish in the later rounds will be the best bet for a Harrison prop bet.
PFL Pick: Harrison (-700)
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