BellatorMMA

Mads Burnell vs. Pedro Carvalho Betting Analysis and Prediction

Bellator 285 is a stacked card for the Dublin crowd this week. On the main card there will be a featherweight fight between Mads Burnell (16-4) and former title challenger Pedro Carvalho (12-6). Check the Burnell vs Carvalho odds

Bellator’s Fighters’ Previous Scoreboards

Mads Burnell is coming off a disappointing loss to Adam Borics via a decision back in March of this year.

Pedro Carvalho is also trying to get back on track after a loss in his last fight against Piotr Niedzielski in May of this year.

Burnell vs. Carvalho Betting Analysis

Mads Burnell

Mads Burnell is a very solid fighter from Denmark that has fought in multiple big organizations during his young career so far. He had a brief stint in the UFC, Cage Warriors, and now he is really finding his stride in Bellator.

Coming off a tough loss, he will look to restore his momentum and start working his way up for a featherweight title shot.

He is facing a guy that fought for a title not too long ago and this will be a good test to see how he can compete with the top of the division. 

Burnell’s Skills

Burnell has very slick boxing with constant forward pressure and a great knack for finishing fights on the ground.

With a very good anaconda choke, along with other front chokes, he is always dangerous every time someone shoots for a takedown on him.

Pedro Carvalho

Carvalho has had a very up-and-down MMA career so far. He won a lot of fights in a row to be at the top of the Bellator featherweight division and fight for a title, but he seems to not be able to win any of his big fights.

Carvalho’s Issue

He is a solid wrestler with good submissions and mixes in good kicks to the body that has hurt many of his opponents. The only issue is he seems to be unaware and not sharp in the cage at some points. 

When Carvalho faced Pitbull, it was almost like he did not understand that there is serious power in those hands.

He stood in front of him with his hands down and just ate multiple shots in a row. Same thing against Jay Jay Wilson; he just let a wild spinning back fist hurt him at the start of round 2, which led to a TKO loss.

Odds Breakdown

  • Bellator odds opened at -300 for the favorite, Mads Burnell, but now he is a -450 favorite on fight week. 
  • Carvalho is fighting for the first time in front of the Dublin fans, the city where he trains now.

Burnell vs. Carvalho Betting Preview

Burnell vs Carvalho odds are pretty tough to bet on and make Bellator picks with because of the little value that Burnell has on the Moneyline.

Burnell is clearly the stronger fighter in this matchup, and the value in his pick is just not enough to be confident in.

If you get fancy and put a play on a prop bet or a method of victory bet, it will bring much more value in Burnell vs Carvalho odds.

Carvalho has shown way too much neglect of awareness and focus in some fights against guys that will seriously hurt him on the feet to be confident with him in this one.

Burnell vs. Carvalho Matchup Odds

According to MMA odds, it is +110 that this fight goes the distance. This is a play to look at because both guys are tough and might not get into positions where they will get hurt and finished. 

If you were to make a play on a method of victory, the best Bellator odds out there right now are either Burnell wins by decision at +150 or even a Burnell by submission at +350.

You will need to get creative and trust some intuition to find real value in a fight like this unless you see something in Carvalho that can get the job done.

Burnell vs. Carvalho Betting Predictions

Carvalho is a former title challenger and has spent a lot of time in the top 5 of the Bellator featherweight division over the last couple of years.

Burnell vs Carvalho odds seems to point to the conclusion that Burnell is just going to be the better fighter in the cage on Friday night.

Who to Bet On?

I believe that Burnell is going to be too much with pressure and his slick boxing for Carvalho to handle in there.

If Carvalho starts getting pieced up, he is going to shoot a lazy takedown and get sprawled on and choked out.  If not that, I can see a Burnell TKO victory in pretty dominant fashion.

Bellator Pick: Burnell to win by submission (+350)

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