Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Picks and Predictions

So, we’ve come to the end of the road. We’ve arrived at the final race on the 2022 F1 schedule and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix and Yas Marina Circuit have been the season finale of the Formula 1 season for many years since first opening in 2009 and will host post-season testing for drivers heading to new teams in the days after the Grand Prix. Continue reading below to get our best Abu Dhabi GP Prediction and much more.

The São Paulo Grand Prix gave us surprises in all three sessions, and those results will help inform all the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix predictions we will make. Strap in and pull your visor down for one last flying lap of F1 predictions for the 2022 season.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Circuit Breakdown

Sixteen turns and 3.281 miles (5.281 km) make up one lap around the Yas Marina Circuit. Max Verstappen in the RB-16B has set the fastest Grand Prix lap at Yas Marina on the revised 2021 circuit layout, setting a 1:26.103 in 2021. All times set before 2021 aren’t necessarily relevant, as the revisions to the Grand Prix circuit have shortened the lap with fewer turns and one less chicane to slow things down.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Picks

Mercedes’ George Russell

Our first pick is to ride with Mercedes’ George Russell. As you’ll find out by reading on, Russell has quite the streak of consistency you will want to wager on. However, our first pick is Russell to score another podium finish in 2022. 

Russell is listed at -190 odds to finish on the podium as of publication. Considering how impressive the Mercedes has looked as they have figured out and developed the W-13, they’ve shown that when Red Bull struggles with setup or tires – as they did with both in São Paulo – Mercedes is the likely team to take the win, rather than Ferrari.

Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton

Lewis Hamilton has scored a pole position and won a Grand Prix in every season of Formula 1 except 2022. This may sound crazy, but we’re picking one of the most significant racing drivers of all time to secure his first pole position in 2022 AND his first win. 

We’re taking Hamilton at +250 odds to win the Grand Prix on Sunday and Mercedes as the winning car at -110. We’ll also consider taking a flyer on Hamilton to take pole position at +650 odds. The W-13 is competitive enough to dethrone Red Bull and keep Charles Leclerc and his Ferrari behind. 

Oh, and if we forgot, he is Lewis Hamilton: the most successful Formula 1 driver of all time. 

Red Bull’s Max Verstappen

Verstappen’s brash radio correspondence after eschewing team orders in Brazil might have stolen headlines, but we don’t think that matters to Team Verstappen. Will Max actually help Sergio Pérez in his fight with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc for second in the drivers’ championships? If the opportunity is there, we hope for all involved, Verstappen helps his Mexican Minister of defense secure Red Bull’s most successful season in Formula 1 ever. 

However, Verstappen likely won’t get that opportunity as he will be in a Mercedes sandwich at the front of the grid. 

With a likely gap between him and Pérez forming, this will leave Max conveniently unavailable to have to acquiesce to a teammate: teammates are an unknown concept in the one-car Team Verstappen outfit on the grid. 

We’ll take Verstappen to finish on the podium at -300 odds.

Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Betting Trends

Trend #1: We spoke about George Russell and a trend early. We’ve been picking George Russell to finish in the top six all season long to great results. And we’d take Russell to complete in the top six as one of our Abu Dhabi Grand Prix predictions.

After his first career Sprint and Grand Prix victories at Interlagos, Russell has now finished in the top six in eighteen of the twenty-one Grand Prix in 2022. Some of you (and oddsmakers) have been paying attention, as Russell is listed at -500 odds to finish in the top six for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. 

Trend 2: Despite their reliability troubles, Alpine has had either Fernando Alonso or Esteban Ocon finish in the points in eighteen of twenty-one Grand Prix this season. We’re taking Alpine to score points finish but not both drivers or the team as a whole, listed at -125. 

Ocon has had the better reliability and is listed at -250 to score points, while Alonso is listed at -350 to finish in the points.

Trend 3: The Double World Champions have been dominant, and both cars scored points in seventeen of the twenty-one Grand Prix. The F1 odds for both Red Bulls to score points is -300

Trend 4: We return to Red Bull for our fourth trend. While we are leaning toward Lewis Hamilton as our pick, part of that is wanting to see Hamilton’s career-long streaks continue. In all reality, Red Bull is unlikely to struggle with the same tire issues as they did in Brazil. There is always a possibility of Red Bull landing both cars on the podium.

Verstappen and Pérez have shared the podium seven times this season. Both Red Bulls to land on the platform are listed at +185 odds.

Trend 5: The fall of Ferrari. Ferrari has had strategy and reliability issues throughout the season. Since the summer break, Ferrari has not won a race and has collected eight total podium spots between drivers in the nine Grand Prix. Further, Red Bull has passed Ferrari for having the quickest car overall, while Mercedes has clawed its way back to the pace and is emerging as the Mercedes we’ve all come to know. 

We do not like the decline of Ferrari in the second half of the season and will only be looking at either driver of the team to finish in a top-six position. Although we all know that Ferrari likes to show off their one-lap pace in qualifying, so Leclerc is always a potential pick for the fastest qualifier (+175), having secured nine pole positions this year.

Abu Dhabi GP Prediction

The most prominent of our Abu Dhabi GP prediction is that there will be a sandwich on the podium; we’re just not sure if there will be Red Bull or Mercedes bread on either side of the podium sandwich. 

Here is our pick for the fastest qualifier: Mercedes’ Lewis Hamilton (+650)

We’d take Mercedes (-250) and Red Bull (-225) to land both cars in the top six. Since we’re taking Hamilton to win the Grand Prix, we’ll also take Mercedes as the winning car at +110 odds. Red Bull is listed at even odds to have a car win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

We like using the top six odds to set our final grid for our Abu Dhabi GP prediction. We’ve included the F1 odds for a top-six finish and the odds for our Abu Dhabi Grand Prix winner, along with the top-six finishers.

Our top six finishers for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix:

  • P1: Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes (+250 to win) (-600)
  • P2: Max Verstappen – Red Bull (-600)
  • P3: George Russell – Mercedes (-500)
  • P4: Sergio Pérez – Red Bull (-400)
  • P5: Charles Leclerc – Ferrari (-500)
  • P6: Esteban Ocon – Alpine (+250)

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