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MotoGP Valencia Grand Prix Betting Picks and Prediction

Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia only needs a fifteenth-place finish to win the 2022 MotoGP Riders’ World Championship. Fabio Quartararo will need a win and some help to capture the World Championship with a twenty-two-point deficit to the championship leader. Bagnaia won the 2021 edition of the Valencia Grand Prix and is the heavy favorite to win the Riders’ World Championship at the last race in the 2022 MotoGP Season.

The colder November climate in Spain will definitely affect qualifying, the supporting series, and the main event, our Valencia GP Betting Picks (and the Grand Prix itself). Lights out for the 2022 Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana and to determine the Riders’ World Champion is scheduled for just after 9 a.m. ET.

Valencia Grand Prix Info and Analysis 

Matchup Info

  • Event: 2022 Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana
  • Venue: Circuit Ricardo Tormo, Valencia, Spain
  • Start Time: Sunday, November 6th, 2022. 9:00 A.M. ET
  • Watch: MotoGP Video Pass, NBC Sports

Circuit Ricardo Tormo Breakdown

One lap around the Circuit Ricardo Tormo is 14 turns over 2.488 miles (4.005 km). Riders in the Gran Premio Motul de la Comunitat Valenciana will complete 27 laps for a total race distance of 67.2 miles (108.1 km). Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia won the 2021 Valencia Grand Prix, while Spaniard Jorge Martin (Pramac) and Australian Jack Miller (Ducati) completed the podium. Each rider was on Ducati machinery.

Martin set the pole position for the 2021 Valencia Grand Prix with a lap time of 1:29.936. The fastest in-lap race was credited to Bagnaia, who posted a 1:31.042 on lap 16.

Circuit Ricardo Tormo Fastest Laps

Jorge Martin’s 2021 Valencia Grand Prix pole position time places him inside the top five times set at the Circuit Ricardo Tormo and the only time set on Ducati machinery.

According to fastestlaps.com, Jorge Lorenzo holds the fastest MotoGP lap at the Circuit Ricardo Tormo, setting a 1:29.40 on the Yamaha YZR-M1 in 2016. Marc Marquez has two of the top five fastest laps, his fastest being a 1:29.74 in 2016 on the Honda RC213V. Important information from the Valencia GP stats: long-shot World Riders’ Championship contender Fabio Quartararo holds the other fastest lap time, setting a 1:29.98 on a Yamaha YZR-M1 in 2019.

Recent Performances: Last Grand Prix and Qualifying Results

Fabio Quartararo kept his slim Riders’ Championship hopes alive at the returning Malaysian Motorcycle Grand Prix, qualifying twelfth and fighting to third place on the podium. The bad news for Quartararo: despite fighting through a severe finger injury to reach the podium, World Championship leader Francesco Bagnaia qualified ninth and ended up winning the Malaysian Grand Prix.

Quartararo has very long odds to repeat as the Riders’ World Championship, sitting at 20/1 at the time of publication. The likely 2022 MotoGP Riders’ World Champion, Francesco Bagnaia, is listed at 1/100.

MotoGP Betting Trends to Know

Jorge Martin has captured four pole positions this season, including the last two races in a row, which will factor into our Valencia GP betting picks.

Francesco Bagnaia has been the fastest qualifier the most in the 2022 MotoGP season, currently sitting at five pole positions and seven race victories.

Despite having the fastest lap at four races and winning three Grand Prix, 2021 World Champion Fabio Quartararo has only qualified first once this season, which was in the year’s second race. Notable for your Valencia GP betting picks is Quartararo’s finger injury that will compromise his race and requires surgery when the season is over.

Aleix Esparagaró and Johann Zarco have each claimed two pole positions, but only Esparagaró has won a race in 2022.

Valencia Grand Prix Qualifying and Grand Prix Odds

Ducati’s Francesco Bagnaia is listed at 9/2 odds to win the 2022 Valencia Grand Prix. We don’t expect Bagnaia to push to the limit and jeopardize his potential World Championship. Will he land on the podium? Quite likely, although we couldn’t find Moto GP odds for props like the top 6 finishers, the podium winners, or the fastest qualifier. These odds will likely make their way onto online sportsbooks closer to the race to add some spice to your motorsports picks.

Jorge Martin, the 2021 Valencia Grand Prix pole sitter, is listed with 16/5 odds to win the 2022 edition of the race.

Enea Bastianini is listed with 4/1 odds to win the Valencia Grand Prix and has already won four Grand Prix this season.

Fabio Quartararo shares the same odds as his world championship rival Bagnaia to win the Grand Prix (9/2). Still, these odds have to reflect the betting public knowing that Quartararo needs the race win to have a chance at the championship and ignoring his finger injury.

Our two Moto GP odds longshots for our Valencia GP betting picks are Aleix Esparagaró (20/1) and Jack Miller (12/1).

Valencia Grand Prix Betting Picks

Fastest Qualifier

We’re going with a repeat performance from last week and last year, predicting that Jorge Martin will score the fastest lap in qualifying. Although, if the odds are right, we’d consider Enea Bastianini as the fastest qualifier.

Valencia Grand Prix Winner and Fastest Lap

We’re not going to take the consensus favorite to win the race – another repeat from last year and last race – Francesco Bagnaia to win the Valencia GP in our Valencia GP betting picks. He doesn’t need to win the race to win the championship, which will factor into how he approaches the race.

We’ll take Enea Bastianini (4/1) or Jorge Martin (16/5) to win the Valencia Grand Prix. As for the fastest lap, Martin is quick around this circuit, so we’ll also take Martin to set the fastest lap.

Riders’ World Championship

Only a DNF (did not finish) or an outright catastrophe will keep Bagnaia from winning the World Championship. If you need a feel-good win on your betting ticket, taking the terrible 1/100 odds on an almost guaranteed outcome is your bet. If you like a little chaos and believe Quartararo’s efforts to retain his championship will be rewarded, then take Quartararo at 20/1 and hope for the most unlikely outcome to play out over twenty-seven laps.

Valencia Grand Prix Prediction

While Quartararo has shown the will and determination we admire in a champion; we don’t like his odds of becoming the champion. We don’t expect Bagnaia to take any chances and will cruise to the 2022 MotoGP World Championship. As for who will be in the Valencia Grand Prix, we’re taking Enea Bastianini to win the race at 4/1 odds.

MotoGP Valencia GP Pick: Enea Bastianini to win the Valencia Grand Prix (4/1)

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