Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Picks and Predictions

This is the second race at the 0.533-mile oval this season and the first on the concrete after the dirt race run earlier this season. 

In addition, this is the third straight year the event has been held in September after being held in late August since the 1970s. Bass Pro Shops Night odds have Denny Hamlin as the favorite to win under the lights.  

Round 16

One race remains in the NASCAR Cup playoffs Round of 16 before the field is cut down to 12 drivers after the race at Bristol.

After his last-place finish at Kansas last week, Kevin Harvick has fallen to 16th in the playoffs and is now in a must-win scenario heading into the weekend. 

This puts him in a tough position in the Bass Pro Shops Night Betting Picks. Playoff standings leader Christopher Bell finished third at Kansas and fifth at Darlington to clinch a position in the final 12.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Picks and Analysis

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were favored last week at the Hollywood Casino 400, with Hamlin finishing in second place behind winner Bubba Wallace. He’s currently third in the standings with two wins this season. 

Although his last win was at the Coca-Cola 600 at the end of May, Hamlin finished second in two straight races in the playoffs.

He also has been on the podium at Bristol six times in this event, with wins in 2012 and 2019. Hamlin is the odds leader in Bass Pro Shops Night Betting Picks.

Chase Elliott

Elliot has been in a minor slump in the last several events and is currently seventh in NASCAR Cup Series standings.

He has four wins in 2022 but hasn’t been consistent recently, finishing any higher than 11th in his last three races. 

Chase Elliot Beating the Odds

Although he’s one of the favorites to win the event and is among the top in the Bass Pro Shops Night Betting Picks, Elliott has never won this event. He finished 25th last year.

His best showing was a third-place finish at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race in 2018. Nevertheless, this year’s betting odds make Elliott one of the favorites to take the checkered flag on Saturday.      

Kyle Busch

It’s hard to count Kyle Busch out of any race at Bristol, as he has seen the most checkered flags than any other driver in the field on the Bass Pro Shops Night schedule with three wins. He also holds the most overall wins at Bristol with eight. 

Next Gen Car on Concrete

However, this will be his first race at the famous circuit in the Next Gen car on concrete, so it’s not a given that his past performance will translate to a win this weekend.

He’s currently on the bubble in 13th position in the playoffs and needs a solid performance to move onto the Round of 12.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Trends

  • Since the start of the playoff format in 2004, the winner of the third postseason race has gone on to win the title at the end of the season four times.  
  • Chevrolet won this event last year for just the third time in the previous sixteen events at Bristol.   
  • Just once in the previous nine NASCAR Cup races has the driver that led the most laps gone on to win the event.   
  • Drivers starting in the pole position have won three of the last seven races at the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.   
  • A non-playoff driver won the third race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs on three different occasions in 2005, 2006, and 2007. 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Pick and Prediction

Bristol Motor Speedway is a regular stop on the NASCAR Cup Series and is one of four concrete surfaces on the yearly NASCAR schedule.

  • Martinsville
  • Dover
  • Nashville

Are the other three.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Top Pick

Chase Elliott has had more success than any other driver in the field on concrete in the Next Gen cars. 

He led for 185 laps while winning both stages in his tenth place finish at Martinsville, took a win at Dover after spending 73 laps in the lead, and went on to win at Nashville after leading for 42 laps.

Therefore, the best move is to make Elliott the top betting pick to take the victory.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Pick: Chase Elliott (+350)

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