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NASCAR Picks & Predictions

NASCAR WISE Power 400 Betting Picks and Prediction

The 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season continues at Auto Club Speedway, with WISE Power 400 race slated for Sunday, February 27. It will mark the second race of the season, following Daytona 500, where Austin Cindric edged past Bubba Wallace to kick off the new season with an upset win.

Cindric kept the tradition of the unpredictability of the first race alive, but the question remains – was it just an upset, or can Cindric secure his second W at Auto Club Speedway? According to the latest NASCAR betting odds, his chances to go back-to-back are very slim. 

Instead, most of the focus is on the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, Kyle Larson, who heads to Fontana as the favorite to secure his first win of the season, with Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin close behind on the outright betting markets.

WISE Power 400 Betting Picks

The sports betting sites have made it very clear that Kyle Larson is the favorite to win at Fontana, pricing him at +333, which is far above Chase Elliott at +600, as the second favorite. That makes sense, but should we trust the reigning champion?

Kyle Larson

Despite failing to deliver in Daytona 500, Kyle Larson deserves some slack for not achieving much in the season opener, knowing that he got (again) caught in a crash. Admittedly, that doesn’t mean that he would certainly win had he not crashed, but we will never know.

But despite the iffy start to the season, Larson is still the reigning champion and by far the most dominant driver of 2021. To put it into perspective, Larson finished half (18/36) of the 2021 races inside the top-three and has won 10, which is phenomenal.

Unfortunately, his record at Fontana isn’t that great. He won the race in 2017 and has two runner-up finishes but has finished outside of the top-10 in four of seven starts. So even though Larson improved significantly last year, his track record isn’t too convincing.

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch is priced well below Kyle Larson on the outright betting markets, but perhaps he should be one of the main favorites to win at Auto Club Speedway. Admittedly, he wasn’t as impressive as Larson in 2021, but that doesn’t take away from his previous success on this track.

Across the last nine races at Fontana, Busch has a 5.1 average finish, which includes three wins. He also finished outside of the top-10 only once in his last eight starts and has locked in in seven top-10s.

Since Auto Club Speedway is very similar to Michigan track, it’s only fair to see how Buch does there as well – he has finished inside top-10 across the last 13 Michigan and Fontana races. With all that in mind, it’s fair to say that if there is one track on the NASCAR schedule where Busch can dominate, it’s Auto Club Speedway.

Chase Elliott

Priced at +600, Chase Elliott isn’t a bad choice either. He had a solid performance in Daytona 500, where he placed top-10, and while he has yet to win at Auto Club Speedway, it’s not fair to say that he hadn’t driven well here before.

Across five appearances here, Elliott finished inside the top-10 three times, while his worst placement was 16th in 2019. The last time he appeared here (2020), Elliott has placed just outside the podium, so he definitely can be a threat this weekend.

WISE Power 400 Betting Trends

Michigan is the only other 2-mile track in NASCAR, while Darlington and Homestead have a similar track style.

  • Seven of the last nine winners of Auto Club Speedway started the race in the top-10.
  • The last four winners at Auto Club Speedway started the race in the front two rows.
  • The last four winners at Auto Club Speedway were also lap leaders and led at least 100 laps.
  • Last three races at Auto Club Speedway saw five or fewer cautions.
  • Ford won just one race at Auto Club Speedway across 13 starts.

WISE Power 400 Betting Picks And Prediction

The driver we’re most excited about for this weekend is Kyle Busch, simply because he is by far the most efficient driver on this track. He has four wins, 11 top-5s, 16 top-10s, and has led 807 laps at Auto Club Speedway across 22 starts.

Furthermore, he was a runner-up here in the last race (2020), dominated in 2019, when he won all three stages and placed third in 2018. What’s more, he has been third or better at Auto Club Speedway in seven of his last nine starts, which includes three wins.

With figures like that, it’s hard to look past Busch at +700.

Prediction: Kyle Busch +700

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