The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia, this Sunday, April 3, for the 2022 Toyota Owners 400.
It will mark the seventh racer of the 2022 season and the first time the NASCAR Cup Series will enter Richmond since the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders in September 2021.
The qualifying event for the race will take place at 11:15 ET on Saturday, April 2, while the 300-mile, 400-lap race around the 0.75 track is slated for a day later, with the green flag set to drop at 3:30 ET.
The race has been held under several different names over the years, but the Toyota Owners has been around since 1953 and was canceled just three times in its history.
The race was most recently canceled in 2020 due to the COVID outbreak, but it returned in 2021 when Alex Bowman claimed the spoils and entered this weekend’s race as the defending champion.
Still, despite his success last time out, Bowman is not one of the favorites to win. In fact, he is not even inside the top-10 favorites, the list of which includes some of the well-known names in the NASCAR scene, some of whom have yet to taste victory this season.
Toyota Owners 400 Betting Picks
Pick 1: Kyle Larson
The defending champion has not been looking too sharp of late, but it’s way too early to start panicking. He had an unfortunate DNF in Daytona in the season opener but quickly bounced back with a victory in California and a runner-up finish in Las Vegas.
However, Larson has since not impressed. His best placement over the next three races came last weekend, when he landed in 29th, with a 30th-place finish from Atlanta and a 34th-place finish in Phoenix. Although a concerning record to hold, Larson has had a few mishaps over that stretch, some of which he couldn’t control.
It’s not like Larson has lost his stride; he just wasn’t able to finish the races. So he definitely deserves some respect ahead of the Richmond race. Here, Larson has six top-10s in 14 starts and one victory from the 2017 Federated Auto Parts 400.
Last year he managed an 18th-place finish in April and a sixth-place finish at the 2021 Federated Auto Parts 400.
Pick 2: Chase Elliott
The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion, Chase Elliott, is still looking for his first victory of the season, but based on his results, he should lock it in sooner or later. He started the season with a top-10 in Daytona, to which he added an unfortunate 26th-place finish in California, but he got himself back on track quickly.
Over the next four races, Elliott locked in three top-10s, including ninth in Las Vegas, sixth in Atlanta, and a fourth-place finish at COTA. His worst placement over that stretch came in Phoenix, where Elliott ended in 11th.
It is worth noting that Elliott has yet to win on Richmond Raceway, but he has done well here before, with four top-5s across 12 starts, including a 12th from the spring race and a fourth-place finish in September.
Pick 3: Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. is priced as the third favorite to win the 2022 Toyota Owners 400, which makes a lot of sense. Moreover, you could argue that Truex Jr. should be priced at lower NASCAR odds.
Truex Jr. heads to Richmond with a streak of very impressive results behind him. He started the season with a 13th-place finish at Daytona and another 13th in California but has since landed outside of the top-10 only once.
In Las Vegas, Truex Jr. claimed a top-six finish, had a DNF in Phoenix, placed eighth in Atlanta, and added a seventh-place finish last weekend at COTA. Truex Jr. has three top-10s and has finished worse than 13th only once this season.
Moreover, Truex Jr. has a phenomenal track record in Richmond, with three wins across the last five starts. That includes a victory from the last year’s Federated Auto Parts 400 and a fifth-place finish in the 2021 Toyota Owners 400.
In 2020, he also placed runner-up in the September race and had won both races in 2019. All in all, it’s very clear that the Richmond Raceway suits him.
Toyota Owners 400 Betting Trends
- Kyle Larson has been the favorite to win three races but has placed 29th or worse in 4/6
- 11 drivers are given odds of +1400 or better for this race, suggesting we’re in for a tight battle
- Kyle Busch is the only still-active driver to win the race more than three times
- Joe Gibbs Racing has won here three times since 2016, but not once since 2019
- Bowman’s victory in 2021 marked Hendrick Motorsports’ first victory in Richmond since 2007
Toyota Owners 400 Betting Pick and Prediction
As we look through all the drivers heading to Richmond this weekend, we can’t look past Marting Truex Jr., who looks poised to win his first race of the season. Admittedly he has yet to claim the checkered flag in 2022, nor has he finished inside the top-5.
However, that doesn’t take away from the fact that he has landed inside the top-6 in the last two races. Adding to that, Truex Jr. is one of the best drivers on the Richmond Raceway.
With three wins from his last five starts, Truex Jr. has by far the best short-term record in Virginia. And if those figures aren’t enough to convince you, Truex Jr. has not finished outside of the top-5 in all of his last six starts here.
When betting on NASCAR, we have to consider that the 2022 season introduced new cars, but we’re already six races deep, so it’s fair to assume that the drivers got used to the new engines.
As for our NASCAR betting picks, we have to go with Martin Truex Jr. Now it will all come down to which driver feels the most comfortable on the track, and there are very few drivers who can compare to Truex Jr. in that aspect.
Prediction: Truex Jr. to win
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