Following last weekend’s chaotic race at COTA, where A.J. Allmendinger pulled away with a win, the NASCAR Xfinity Series heads to Richmond Raceway in Richmond, Virginia, for the 2022 ToyotaCare 250.
The Richmond race will mark the seventh race of the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series season and the first time the Xfinity Series will travel to Richmond since the 2021 Go Bowling 250, which took place in September 2021. As a race that is known for producing surprise winners, this weekend’s battle promises to be another exciting one, as we already got used to this year.
Interestingly over the first six races of the 2022 Xfinity Series, Ty Gibbs is the only driver to win more than one race, whereas Cole Cluster is the only driver who is not eligible for Xfinity points to win a race (California). But even though the Xfinity Series has produced some interesting results so far, we have a pretty good idea about who should deliver this weekend.
ToyotaCare 250 Betting Picks
Pick 1: John Hunter Nemechek
This season, John Hunter Nemechek has not done much Xfinity Series driving and will make only his third Xfinity start this weekend. Still, there is a good reason why he is one of the favorites to win in Richmond.
Hunter Nemechek was last seen competing in Xfinity in Phoenix, where he secured a top-5 finish, following a less-than-convincing 12th-place finish in Las Vegas.
Interestingly, he was just as successful in the Camping World Truck Series, where Nemechek had a rough start to the season with 24th, 26th, and 24th places across Daytona, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, respectively.
However, he has delivered at COTA, where Nemechek locked in a runner-up finish.
Although his 2022 results are important, we have to also focus on his past achievements, namely in Richmond. And he has some pretty interesting numbers.
In Richmond, Nemechek has a pair of top-10s in the Xfinity Series, including a third-place finish in last year’s Fall race. Most importantly, he claimed bronze while racing for Sam Hunt Racing – now imagine what he can do with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Pick 2: Ty Gibbs
Ty Gibbs is, like Hunter Nemechek, one of the top dogs ahead of the Richmond race, and that makes perfect sense. He has had a very chaotic season so far, seeing how the 19-year-old is the only Xfinity driver with multiple race wins in 2022, but he has also finished outside the top-10 in three of six attempts.
Moreover, Gibbs has not led that many laps, so it does seem like his wins were flukes rather than anything else. That said, those figures also show that if Gibbs is feeling it, he could be a threat for his third W of the season.
Last year, Gibbs could only manage a seventh-place finish in Richmond, which isn’t great, but we have to take into account his numbers from that race. Gibbs led for 67 laps (the best on the day) and had the best driver rating (126.9), suggesting he should have won the race or at least ended inside the top-3.
Pick 3: Justin Allgaier
We should always keep an eye on the younger talent in the Xfinity Series, but we should also show some respect to the veterans, one of which is Justin Allgaier. The 35-year-old has had a very up-and-down start to the 2022 Xfinity Series season and was particularly disappointing in the last two races (Atlanta, COTA), where he placed 34th and 33rd.
However, he has four top-10s across the opening four races, including two top-5s from Daytona and Las Vegas. Evidently, Allgaier is moving in the wrong direction, but Richmond could be the place where he turns things around.
Richmond wasn’t Allgaier’s strongest track early into his NASCAR career. However, he has found his stride on this track once he moved to JR Motorsports. Since 2016 he came close to winning in Virginia several times, and while he always came out short, Allgaier did well enough to catch our attention.
Since 2019, Allgaier has competed in Richmond five times and has locked in very impressive results, including 3rd (2019), 4th (2019), 1st (2020), 1st (2020), and 4th (2021). Allgaier did not lead for a single lap in the two races he finished fourth, but he had led for 86 laps when he placed third and 78 and 135 in his two victories here in 2020.
ToyotaCare 250 Betting Trends
- Justin Allgaier won both 2020 Richmond races
- Kevin Harvick (2003, 2006, 2014) and Denny Hamlin (2008, 2011, 2015) are the only two still-active drivers to win ToyotaCare 250 more than twice.
- Joe Gibbs is the most successful team in this race with five wins
- Roush Racing (4), Richard Childress Racing (3) and JRE Motorsports (3) are the only remaining teams with more than two wins at ToyotaCare 250.
- Although a track historically dominated by Toyota, Chevrolet leads in the most wins (13)
ToyotaCare 250 Betting Predictions
At the offered NASCAR odds, it’s hard to pick a winner, but it’s also tough to look past Justin Allgaier. He is priced as high as +600 to win in Richmond, which seems fair, but you could argue that Allgaier is a bit underestimated.
He won both Richmond races in 2020 and has placed fourth in the only 2021 race on this track. Moreover, he has a third and fourth-place finish here from 2019, meaning he has run inside the top-5 in all of his last five races on Richmond Raceway.
Admittedly, he did not show up in Atlanta or at COTA, where he placed 34th and 33rd, but it wasn’t exactly his fault. So even though his past two placements are something we need to take into account, we should also point out that Allgaier placed inside the top-10 in the first four races of the season and top-5 in two of the opening three.
At +600, Allgaier is one of the better NASCAR picks to win the 2022 ToyotaCare 250 and is our many to watch for the seventh race of the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series season.
NASCAR Betting Prediction: Justin Allgaier to win
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