The Atlanta Hawks look to even the season series against the Miami Heat in the final game on the regular season NBA schedule between the Eastern Conference rivals. The Hawks look to avenge a loss Saturday in Miami, 117-109, which was their second loss in three games. Meanwhile, the Heat are looking to continue their dominance as they have won 75 NBA matchups to the Hawks’ 58 in 133 regular season games.
The Hawks (32-32) are 1.5 games behind the Heat (34-31) in the NBA standings, and each team is hoping to avoid the play-in tournament. The Heat are seventh, and the Hawks are eighth, currently. Here is a breakdown of the odds, each team, and the game before making a Hawks vs Heat prediction.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Odds
The NBA odds today show the Heat are favored by three points with an over/under of 228.5 points. Betting either side on the point total or against the spread are at -110 odds. Hawks odds on the moneyline are +135 while Heat odds are -160.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Information
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
Location of the Game: Miami-Dade Arena, Miami, FL.
Date and Time: Monday, March 6, 2023, 7:40 PM ET.
How to Watch: NBA League Pass
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Analysis
Atlanta Hawks Performance Recap and Analysis
Quin Snyder resigned from the Utah Jazz after eight seasons, which made him available for hire when the Atlanta Hawks fired Nate McMillan. Snyder has the difficult transition in the middle of the season of a team that has had its fair share of struggles.
NBA team stats show the Hawks are one of the better offensive teams but have their struggles on the defensive end. The Hawks are seventh in scoring 117.0 points per game, 10th in making 48.1% of field goal attempts, 19th in making 35.4% of 3-point shots, and fourth at the free throw line with an 82.0% conversion rate. They are 12th in rebounding 43.7 times per game.
Defensive Stats Analysis
On the defensive end, the Hawks allow 116.9 points per game, which ranks 21st. Teams convert 47.8% of field goal attempts against the Hawks, which ranks 22nd, but the Hawks hold teams to 34.9% on 3-point shots, the sixth-best mark in the league. They allow 45.1 rebounds per game, which is the fifth worst.
NBA player stats show Trae Young has been really good, with an average of 26.7 points and 10.1 assists per game. Adding Dejounte Murray to the backcourt has been a great pickup, as he averages 21.0 points, 6.0 assists, and 5.4 rebounds per game.
The frontcourt has had some issues, but Clint Capela is healthy, and John Collins and the younger Onyeka Okongwu make their presence felt on the glass and defensive end.
Key Injuries
There are no injuries to report for Atlanta.
Betting Trends to Know
The Hawks are 28-36 against the spread and 36-28 on over/unders. They are 14-19 straight up on the road. As underdogs, the Hawks are 14-14 against the spread.
They are 7-10 against the spread on the road against teams with a winning record. They are 1-5 against the spread in the last six games against the Heat in Miami.
Miami Heat Performance Recap and Analysis
The Miami Heat have carried the same roster over from their great bubble performance a few seasons ago. They should have growth and be a better team overall, but that has not been the case. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league, which influences things.
The Heat are last in the league in scoring 108.1 points per game and converting 45.1% of field goal attempts. They are third last in converting 33.4% of 3-point shots. Despite those marks, the Heat are second in making 82.9% of free throw attempts. They are 26th in rebounding at 41.2 per game.
Defensive Stats Analysis
Defensively, the Miami Heat stats show that they are second in allowing 108.8 points per game. But they are 19th in allowing teams to convert 47.8% of field goal attempts and rank 21st in allowing a 36.8% conversion rate on 3-point shots. They are eighth in holding opponents to 42.2 rebounds per game.
The Heat have three players averaging at least 20 points per game.
Jimmy Butler is averaging 21.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. Bam Adebayo is averaging 21.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per game. Tyler Herro is averaging 20.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game while converting 37.3% of 3-point shots.
Key Injuries
The Heat have a rather lengthy injury report. Veteran point guard Kyle Lowry is out indefinitely with a knee injury, and wing Nikola Jovic is out for a few weeks with a back injury. Newly acquired forward Kevin Love is probable with a ribs injury, and center Omer Yurtseven is probable with an ankle injury.
Betting Trends to Know
The Heat are 24-39-2 against the spread and 29-36 on over/unders. They are 20-12 straight up at home. They are 15-26-2 against the spread as favorites.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Betting Picks
Making a Hawks vs Heat prediction is difficult because the two NBA teams are playing far below their talent levels. Plus, there is no telling which team – for either side – is going to show up, especially after the two just played against each other in Miami. But it is an important game for playoff seeding down the line. Here are our NBA picks today:
Moneyline: Heat -160
The Heat are a more complete team and are comfortable playing at a slower pace, even though their metrics may indicate otherwise. We’ll roll with the better defensive team.
Spread: Heat -3
We do not feel great about this line or the fact that the Heat are not great at covering the spread, but they have two wins against the Hawks by eight points.
Over/Under Total: Under 228.5
The under is 36-15 in the last 51 meetings in Miami and 47-23 in the last 70 meetings, regardless.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Score Predictions
The public Hawks vs Heat prediction has 69% of public bets on the Heat and 52% on the under.
- NBA Pick: Miami Heat 109, Atlanta Hawks 102
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