NBA Finals Pick Analysis
The NBA Finals are finally here: The NBA playoffs bracket has finally come to an end, and the Dallas Mavericks are set to face off against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics will have home-court advantage in this series, but are coming off an easy path to the NBA Finals and have yet to be battle-tested. The Mavericks enter the finals after an impressive five-game series against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Celtics have been the favorites to win the Finals all season long, and currently sit at -210 to win the series. The Mavericks are +175 to win, and we like that value. With Kristaps Porzingis questionable for Boston and having missed the last four weeks of the playoffs, we believe this line is too favorable to Boston Celtics. They have had a very easy path to the Finals, and Luka Doncic and the Mavericks have been tested in each round of the playoffs so far. We also like the series spread of Dallas +1.5.
Let’s look at the NBA betting trends, NBA odds, and NBA stats to make our NBA picks for this NBA Finals preview.
Boston Celtics Vs. Dallas Mavericks Series Schedule
- Game Date Time (ET) Arena
- Game 1 Thursday, June 6, 2024 8:30 p.m. TD Garden
- Game 2 Sunday, June 9, 2024 8 p.m. TD Garden
- Game 3 Wednesday, June 12, 2024 8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center
- Game 4 Friday, June 14, 2024 8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center
- Game 5 (if necessary) Monday, June 17, 2024 8:30 p.m. TD Garden
- Game 6 (if necessary) Thursday, June 20, 2024 8:30 p.m. American Airlines Center
- Game 7 (if necessary) Sunday, June 23, 2024 8 p.m. TD Garden
Celtics Vs. Mavericks Picks
- Pick: Dallas Mavericks +1.5
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Odds to win NBA Finals
| Winning Team | Results | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Celtics | 4-1 | +340 |
| Celtics | 4-3 | +350 |
| Celtics | 4-2 | +475 |
| Mavericks | 4-2 | +550 |
| Celtics | 4-0 | +600 |
| Mavericks | 4-3 | +800 |
| Mavericks | 4-1 | +1200 |
| Mavericks | 4-0 | +1900 |
NBA Finals Betting Analysis
Although they weren’t ever at the top of the NBA West standings, we like the odds for Dallas in this series. Luka Doncic has been unbelievable so far these NBA playoffs, and we don’t see Boston being able to stop his dominance. In his last five games (the entire Timberwolves series), Luka averaged 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists. This was against the league’s number-one defense, and if Boston is without Porzingis as a rim protector, we don’t see Luka slowing down.
NBA Injury Report:
- Boston: Kristaps Porzingis (PF) Questionable, Calf
- Dallas: Olivier-Maxence Prosper (PF) Is out indefinitely, Ankle
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NBA Finals Previous Winners and Betting Trends
Both of these teams haven’t won an NBA championship in a long time. The Celtics last reached the mountain top in 2008, and for Dallas, it was 2011. These teams have faced each other twice already this season, with Boston winning each matchup and covering the spread in both.
Over their last ten matchups, the Celtics have gone 6-4 straight-up, 7-3 against the spread, and 3-6-1 on over/under totals.
- Dallas is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games and have gone over in five of its last six games.
- Boston is 1-5 against the spread in its last six games and have gone over in five of its last six games.
NBA Finals Betting Picks
In our NBA Finals preview, we determined that the Dallas moneyline is a good value bet. They’ve proven themselves these playoffs by defeating difficult opponents and peaking at the right moment. A safer bet would be taking Dallas +1.5 for the series spread at -120. In general, we like Dallas to put up a great fight against the favorite Celtics. Keep an eye on the injury status of Kristaps Porzingis, his ability to play will be crucial in the outcome of this series.
Discover the latest stats and trends of this matchup here:
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