The Milwaukee Bucks jumped out to a 1-0 series lead, stealing home court against the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Now, the Celtics try to even it up at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday before heading to the Midwest.
The defending champions won the first game, 101-89, with a strong defensive performance. Boston converted 33.3% of field goal attempts with stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to 6-of-18 and 4-of-13 shooting, respectively.
Perhaps the most surprising part is the Bucks were able to get it done with Khris Middleton remaining out with a knee injury.
NBA betting odds have the Celtics favored by 4.5 points and -190 on the moneyline. Milwaukee is +165, and the over/under is set at 215.5.
Bucks at Celtics Stats
Milwaukee Bucks Stats
Talk shows love to debate who the best player is, and while the MVP will likely go to Denver’s Nikola Jokic or Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is proving why he should wear that crown.
In Game 1, he shot 36% from the floor and was 6 for 11 at the free-throw line, yet he still was the top player on the floor with 24 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists. His defense doesn’t show up in the box score, but he is a large reason why Tatum and Brown struggled.
Antetokounmpo is strong at getting down hill and finishing around the rim, but he also has shown a knack for finding open 3-point shooters. The Bucks had Bobby Portis and Wesley Matthews a combined 3 for 13 on 3-pointers, with the rest of the teams going 9 for 21 (42.9%). That spacing is tough to defend, especially when Brook Lopez is out there drawing the biggest Celtics’ defender away from the rim.
Milwaukee’s strengths are offense and rebounding. They averaged 115.5 points per game, the third-best mark in the NBA, and were fifth at 36.6% 3-point shooting during the regular season. Crashing the glass, they were second, pulling in 46.7 boards per contest.
Playing with a high pace hurt their defensive numbers a bit, but through six postseason games, the Bucks are allowing 94.2 points per game.
Boston Celtics Stats
The Boston Celtics thrive on the defensive end, ranking as the top team in points allowed per game (104.5), opposing field goal percentage (43.4%), and opposing 3-point percentage (33.9%). They also are in the top half of the league offensively. Part of that is the pace with which they play at.
The other part is having Al Horford and Daniel Theis to anchor the frontcourt to allow the versatility of Tatum, Brown, and Marcus Smart to switch and take away driving lanes. Yet 18 turnovers and getting outrebounded gave the Bucks opportunities to push in transition and dictate the tempo.
Boston only took 20 free throw attempts, one fewer than their counterparts. They need to draw contact and get to the free-throw line at a higher rate so they can take advantage of their 81.6% team number, which is second in the league.
With Middleton out, it should make things easier for one of their wings, despite Milwaukee still having Jrue Holiday out there with Antetokounmpo. Though if Marcus Smart (questionable, quadricep) can’t go, that changes the dynamic a little bit. But he’s been playing through the quad injury.
Tatum also needs to return to form. After shutting down Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets while averaging 27.8 points, 7.0 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game, he was a non-factor in Game 1. It’s hard to see him disappearing for a second straight game, especially at home.
Matchup Information
Bucks at Celtics Betting Trends
- The latest betting stats NBA show the Bucks are the public’s favorite, with 56% of the bets against the spread.
- The public also likes the under, which garners 53% of the bets.
- Over the last ten meetings, the Celtics are 8-2 against the spread, yet the Bucks are 6-4 straight up, including winning the last three games.
- That includes Milwaukee going 1-4 against the spread in the last five games at TD Garden.
- Eight of the last nine overs hit before Game 1 went under 218.5.
- Over the last 23 meetings between the two in Boston, the over is 16-6-1.
- Milwaukee is 43-45 against the spread and 43-45 on over/unders through the regular season and playoffs. That includes a 27-17 road record straight up.
- Boston is 48-38-1 against the spread and 42-43-2 on over/unders through the regular season and playoffs. Straight up the Celtics are 30-14 at home.
Bucks at Celtics Betting Predictions
Bucks fans will be the first to voice their frustrations with Mike Budenholzer’s coaching and perceived lack of adjustments. But he is the more experienced guy, with first-year head coach Ime Udoka leading Boston. We’ll learn more about Udoka as a head coach based on the Game 2 performance.
The Celtics were perhaps the hottest team in basketball to close the regular season. From Jan. 29 on, the Celtics were 26-6, with four of those losses to playoff teams, including a 127-121 loss in Milwaukee for their only meeting in that stretch.
Tatum and Brown have to perform better if Boston is going to have a shot in this series. Take Smart away, and that’ll make life more difficult. But Smart has toughened his way through injuries throughout his career, and he’s coming off his best season yet, averaging 12.1 points, a career-high 5.9 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game. He also brings a lot to the defensive end.
Milwaukee played so well despite Antetokounmpo’s struggles shooting in Game 1. NBA picks are hard to judge looking in a vacuum, but the Bucks should also improve like the Celtics in certain areas. We’ll take the Bucks to win outright and cover +4.5 in Game 2.
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