The Air Force Falcons (9-3) will look to win ten or more games for the third time in four years as they take on Baylor (6-6) at Carter Stadium on the campus of TCU in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Air Force comes in on a roll, having won four in a row and going a perfect 4-0 in November.
Baylor, on the other hand, has been struggling, losers of three in a row. The once-top-10 ranked squad is now looking to finish the year above 500 after going 12-2 and winning the Sugar Bowl one season ago.
The main storyline in this one is the weather, and it’s expected to be cold and windy in the Dallas Metroplex on Thursday as the only game on the NCAAF schedule could be impacted by weather.
In this piece, we will give you all you need to know when making your Baylor vs Air Force betting picks.
Baylor Bears vs. Air Force Falcons
Matchup Info
- Date: Thursday, December 22, 2022
- Time: 7:30 p.m.
- Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium
- Location: Fort Worth, Texas
- How to Watch: ESPN
Baylor and Air Force have met three times, with the Bears holding a 3-0 series edge.
Baylor Performance Recap and Analysis
Coming off a BCS performance in 2021, much was expected of the Bears as they found themselves ranked inside the top 10 prior to the start of this season.
The season opener at BYU, one of two NCAAF games in week 2 featuring a pair of top 2 squads, resulted in a 26-21 loss.
After going 3-1 in September, the Bears’ season hit major turbulence to begin October with an 11-point home loss to Oklahoma State and then a narrow defeat in Morgantown to WVU, a game which, according to Baylor Bears odds, had the team favored by 3.5.
On the year, Baylor runs it 52 percent of the time and takes an average of 76 offensive snaps per outing. Offensively, according to the metrics, Baylor Bears is a better run team.
Going against the nation’s top rushing attack will be a tall task.
Key Injuries
While it won’t show up on the list of college football injuries, Baylor is without defensive coordinator Ron Roberts who was fired at the conclusion of the regular season. Linebacker Devon Neal, one of the team’s top tacklers, entered the transfer portal.
Betting Trends to Know
- The Bears are 1-5 against the number in their last six Thursday games.
- The under is 4-0 in the last four Baylor games played in December.
- Over is 9-0 in the last nine Bears games played on a neutral site when favored.
Air Force Performance Recap and Analysis
The Falcons dropped three games on the season on the road at Wyoming and Utah State and at home to Boise State.
A look at the NCAAF standings showed they were in a dead heat with the Cowboys and Aggies for second in the Mountain Division behind Boise.
As is to be expected with a military academy, the Falcons are extremely run-heavy, calling run plays 87 percent of the time while running 70.8 offensive plays on average.
As is often the case, AFA faces a Baylor team that, although it has had extra time to prepare, has not faced an option offense this season.
As such, no team in America has averaged more rushing yards per game than the Falcons, which should be a huge advantage given the wind expected come kickoff.
Defensively, Air Force is third nationally in fewest yards allowed and in the top 20 against both the run and pass.
Key Injuries
The Falcons enter postseason play relatively healthy, with no players who appeared in the team’s last game expected to miss the bowl.
Betting Trends to Know
- Coach Troy Calhoun is 7-4 ATS in bowl games.
- The Falcons are 1-5 against the number in games played on Thursdays.
- The Falcons are 0-4 in games following an ATS win.
Baylor vs. Air Force Odds
A review of the NCAAF odds shows the Bears are 4.5-point favorites, and the total is 44. Baylor is – 190 on the moneyline, and the Falcons are + 150. Keep this in mind when making Baylor vs Air force betting picks.
Baylor vs. Air Force Betting Picks
- Moneyline
The Air Force offers tremendous value here on the moneyline. They are a good bowl team, are coming in on a roll, and are relatively healthy.
We feel as though the markets are leaning towards Baylor due to its Power 5 pedigree. We will take the Falcons on the money line as part of our free college football picks.
NCAAF Pick: Falcons +4 (-110)
- Over-Under
The total has been going down steadily since the threat of inclement weather was revealed.
We somewhat like bucking the trend and taking the over here, especially if the markets keep going down. AFA has scored 31 or more points in each of its last five bowl games.
NCAAF Pick: Over 43 (-110)
- Spread
The Falcons are 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 versus Power 5 teams. However, given the weather and Air Force’s momentum coming in, coupled with Calhoun’s bowl success, we like the Falcons and the 4.5 points.
It’s the first time on the Air Force Falcons schedule that the team will be an underdog all season.
NCAAF Pick: Falcons +4 (+110)
Baylor vs. Air Force Score Prediction
After reviewing all of the information above and carefully considering our Baylor vs Air Force betting picks, we will take the Falcons to win 31-21.
Score Prediction: Air Force 31, Baylor 21
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