The Sun Belt Conference championship is on the line when the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers visit the Troy Trojans at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Alabama.
A New Year’s Six bowl isn’t on the line for either team, with a pair of ranked American Athletic Conference teams playing in their conference championship game on this week’s NCAAF schedule.
However, that doesn’t mean that the aptly named Fun Belt can’t steal a few eyes off television sets from the bigger NCAAF games.
The Chanticleers (9-2) have a unique offense and are trying to get to 10 wins with a victory.
Meanwhile, the Trojans (10-2) seek their second 11-win season in Division I history, which would tie the mark set in 2017 and give an opportunity for the best season in the program’s history heading into a bowl game.
Last Game Records
Coastal Carolina’s Last Game Record
Coastal Carolina cost itself a golden opportunity to host the league title game and potentially be ranked with a shot at the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bowl bid with last week’s 47-7 loss to James Madison.
The Chanticleers led 7-3 with 4:50 left in the first quarter before the Dukes scored 44 straight points.
Coastal Carolina gained 183 yards of offense and 11 first downs, while the Dukes went for 287 passing yards and 215 rushing yards for 25 first downs.
Troy’s Last Game Record
Troy hasn’t lost since a four-point decision to Appalachian State on sept. 17. Troy was at risk of losing against Arkansas State last week but pulled out a 48-19 victory with a dominant fourth quarter.
Trailing 19-14 with 1:31 left in the third quarter, the Trojans would go on to score 34 straight points, including three Kimani Vidal touchdown runs and a 67-yard interception return for a touchdown by Reddy Steward.
That’s how these teams secured the top spots in the NCAAF standings for the Sun Belt.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Troy Trojans Betting Analysis
Perhaps it is recency bias, or maybe not, but NCAAF odds show Troy favored by 8.5 points with an over/under of 48.5. The Trojans are -330 on the moneyline, while the Chanticleers are +255.
It wouldn’t be bad to have a Coastal Carolina vs Troy betting wager in either direction of that spread. But let’s take a look at the numbers before getting to our picks.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina has ranked among the top teams offensively this season, and it will be a key strength-on-strength matchup.
However, they are dealing with college football injuries, namely to quarterback Grayson McCall who was listed out indefinitely on Monday with a foot injury. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to practice or play.
A Unique Triple Option System
Still, the Chanticleers have a unique triple option system out of pistol and shotgun formations. They use a lot of motion, and their play fakes will open up the passing game.
The Chanticleers are 49th in gaining 409.1 yards of offense per game and 61st in scoring 29.4 points per game.
They are generally balanced, ranking 54th in gaining 242.6 yards through the air and 166.5 yards rushing (57th). One concern is nine giveaways, which ranks 90th.
Chanticleers’ Defense
Defensively they are not as strong. The Chanticleers allow 412.7 yards per game, which ranks 97th, and 28.7 points per game, ranking 89th.
That includes ranking 122nd in giving up 278.4 yards passing per game. The good side of that is they rank 39th in holding teams to 134.4 yards rushing per game. They have nine takeaways, which ranks 71st.
Troy Trojans
Troy’s strength in the strength-on-strength matchup is its defense. The Trojans have one of the best defensive units in the country.
They rank 16th in holding teams to 316.2 yards of offense per game and eighth in allowing 16.8 points per game.
The splits are incredible as they rank 26th in allowing 198.1 yards passing per game and rank 22nd in giving up 118.1 yards rushing per contest. They are 60th with ten takeaways.
Trojans’ Offense
Offensively, ball security has been key. Troy has six giveaways, which ranks 38th in the country. The Trojans are 88th in scoring 24.6 points per game and 82nd in gaining 372.7 yards per game.
They are, however, 52nd in passing for 247 yards per game which is an area they can exploit against a horrid Coastal Carolina pass defense.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Troy Trojans Betting Preview
There have been five meetings between these two programs at all time. The Chanticleers have won the last three despite being 1-4 against the spread in those five games.
Meanwhile, the over is 5-0 in those games, though the 48.5 points is the lowest total in the series.
Double-digit Underdogs
Troy hasn’t been favored in the series since 2018 but covered as double-digit underdogs in the last two meetings.
The old saying “offense wins games, and defense wins championships” could be true on Saturday.
Let’s Rely on a Backup Quarterback
That’s especially important if McCall can’t go and the Chanticleers have to rely on a backup quarterback, whether that’s Jarrett Guest (44.2% completion percentage, four interceptions in 43 passes) or Bryce Carpenter, who has six pass attempts in seven games this season.
For the season, the Chanticleers are 4-6-1 against the spread and 6-5 on over/under. They are 3-1 on the road. It’s the first time the Chanticleers have been underdogs in the one-to-two-touchdown range.
They did not cover as more than two touchdown favorites earlier this season.
Six Home Game Winning Streak
Troy is 9-3 against the spread and 5-7 on over/under. The Trojans have not lost in their six home games.
The Trojans are 2-1 against the spread when they are laying a touchdown to two touchdowns. That includes a 1-1 mark in that point range at home.
Those making a Coastal Carolina vs Troy betting picks note that 57% of public bets on the Trojans and another 56% on the over.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Troy Trojans Betting Prediction
Whether the Chanticleers will have McCall at quarterback is a big key to this game. If he can’t play, it heavily favors Troy and its stingy defense, so don’t make a Coastal Carolina vs Troy betting pick until there is certainly one way or another.
If McCall is healthy, we like Coastal Carolina +8.5 and over 48.5. If he can’t play, we’ll take Troy -8.5 and under 48.5.
NCAAF Pick: Coastal Carolina +8 (-110)
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