The 3-0 Indiana Hoosiers take on the 2-1 Cincinnati Bearcats for the fourth week of the NCAAF schedule. The Bearcats are heavy favorites in this matchup but should they be?
Continue reading for our expert Cincinnati vs Indiana betting picks and the most important thing for picking winners in the NCAAF team stats for these two teams.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Indiana Hoosiers Analysis
Key Injuries
Tight end Ryan Miller and wide receivers Jaquez Smith and David Baker haven’t played yet this season and are all questionable.
Offensive tackle Matthew Bedford is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Betting Trends to Know
Some key Indiana stats and trends coming into this contest are:
- The Hoosiers are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as an unranked team, including 1-4 against the spread in the last two years as an unranked team on the road.
- Indiana is 1-8 in the last two years against the spread as an underdog.
- The Hoosiers are 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 games. 1-5 on the road against the spread since the start of last season.
- Indiana is 0-5 over the last two years as a seven-point underdog or greater.
Cincinnati Bearcats Analysis
Key Injuries
Here are some of the key injuries on a quite extensive NCAAF injury report for the Cincinnati Bearcats:
- Center Jake Renfro was the top center in the ACC last year and was named to the All-AAC first team is expected to miss the entire season with a knee injury.
- Running back Ryan Montgomery has missed the last two games with a rib injury and is questionable.
- Offensive guard London Fickell hasn’t played yet this season and is questionable with a shoulder injury.
- Linebacker Devin Hightower is questionable with a shoulder injury that has kept him out of the last two games.
- Defensive linemen Dominique Perry and Malik Vann are both out this game and probably the rest of the season.
- Wide receiver Will Pauling is out indefinitely with an MCL injury.
Betting Trends to Know
Here are some key trends to know from the last two seasons of Cincinnati football games:
- The Bearcats are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games vs a team with a winning record.
- Cincinnati is 7-0 in their last seven home games against the spread as a non-ranked team.
- The Bearcats are 11-4 in their last 15 games against the spread vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or better.
- Cincinnati is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games against non-conference power 5 teams.
- The Bearcats are 8-2 in their last 10 home games against the spread vs a non-ranked team.
Indiana vs. Cincinnati Odds
The Indiana Hoosiers are big 17-point underdogs at +550, with the Cincinnati Bearcats giving up 17 points at -750.
The total in this contest is set at 57.5, with both the under and the over being -110.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Picks
Here is my best Cincinnati vs. Indiana picks:
If you’re going to take the money line on this one, takes the Bearcats -750. As crazy as those odds look, there is actually a lot of value with the Bearcats, and those odds could and probably should be deeper than -750.
Moneyline: Cincinnati Bearcats -750
The under is the way to go on this matchup. Cincinnati will be on its own in the scoring department. The Hoosiers simply will not be doing any scoring, and this will be a blowout with the Bearcats running out the clock for most of the second half.
Over/Under: Under 57.5
The Bearcats are 17 points favorites in this matchup for a reason. Their passing attack will eat the Hoosiers’ secondary alive, and Indiana will have no answer for the Cincinnati run game either, even with the absence of running back Ryan Montgomery.
The offensive line of the Cincinnati Bearcats will simply push around the defensive line of Indiana and their linebacking crew.
Hoosiers’ Offense
Offensively, the Hoosiers will not be able to move the ball through the air or on the ground against this Cincinnati defense.
The receiving core of Cincinnati does not have the talent to attack the Bearcats’ secondary, and the defensive line of Cincinnati will power through and push around the offensive line of the Hoosiers, stopping any ground attack.
The Cincinnati Bearcats easily cover the spread in my best Cincinnati vs. Indiana picks.
Spread: Cincinnati Bearcats -17
Indiana Hoosiers vs.Cincinnati Bearcats Score Prediction
Score Prediction: Indiana 17 – Cincinnati 36
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