The TCU Horned Frogs (11-0) look to cap off a perfect regular season and inch one step closer to their first College Football Playoff appearance as Iowa State (4-7) comes to Fort Worth. Gametime is set for 4 p.m. ET at Amon G. Carter on the TCU campus. Check the Iowa State vs TCU betting stats below.
The Horned Frogs lead the overall series 8-5 SU, while the Cyclones have won three in a row. The Horned Frogs are 5-2 SU against Iowa State when playing in Fort Worth.
NCAAF Recent Trends
In contrast to recent trends, TCU will finish 2022 with a winning record for the first time in four seasons, while the Cyclones are going to finish the season with a losing record and no bowl trip for the first time since 2016.
Read below for all you need to know about Iowa State vs TCU betting stats to make you a winner this Saturday.
We will also make an Iowa State prediction as to how they’ll fare on both sides of the ball and give you all the TCU football stats there is to know to construct a winning wager.
Iowa State vs. TCU
Iowa State Stats
As mentioned, Iowa State is staring at its first losing season since 2016 and only the second time in coach Matt Campbell’s tenure that it has not competed in a bowl game.
The team opened the season fairly well, with the 10-7 win over Iowa in the Cy-Hawk game being the highlight.
Then, things started to go downhill and snowball fast as the Maroon and Gold lost 5 in a row as part of its NCAAF schedule before a 31-14 win over West Virginia stopped the bleeding.
They failed to capitalize on that momentum, dropping a pair of one-possession contests at Oklahoma State and in Ames to Texas Tech.
Statistically speaking, Iowa State ranks 130th in the NCAA n total yards but has thrown the ball well, ranking 49th.
Due to several Cyclones falling victim to college football injuries, the running game has let down ISU, as they average a little over 100 yards per game.
Iowa State Defense
On the defensive side of the ball, the defense has been extremely solid, especially as of late. The Iowa State Cyclones rank 12th in all the land in yards allowed and are in the top 22 nationally in both rushing and passing yards surrendered.
The Cyclones run an average of 77.5 offensive snaps per game and throw it 61.5 percent of the time.
Horned Frogs are in the midst of one of the best seasons in school history. TCU is looking to advance to the CFP for the first time and go undefeated for the first time since 1938.
The double-digit wins mark the fourth time since 2012 the program has accomplished that feat.
TCU has shown an ability to not always dominate on the stat sheet, but they have demonstrated a will to win.
While this intangible may not appear on any Iowa State vs TCU betting stats, it cannot be underestimated, as momentum and good karma are often key ingredients to magical seasons.
None of that was more evident than this past week in Waco when they scored the game’s last 9 points, including a 40-yard field goal at the gun to win 29-28 and keep the dream season alive.
In fact, the team has played five one-possession games and successfully come back from four halftime deficits.
Led by senior, and Iowa native, Max Duggan, the TCU offense ranks 14th nationally in yards per game and the top 40 in both rushing and passing yards.
On defense, the Horned Frogs are 155th overall amongst FBS and FCS teams and have been extremely effective against the run and susceptible against the pass.
TCU runs an average of 72.3 offensive snaps per game, and their run-pass mix is nearly equal.
Matchup Betting Trends
- On the season, TCU is 8-2-1 ATS
- Iowa State is 4-7 ATS in 2022.
- The Horned Frogs are 0-6 against the number in their last six against Iowa State.
- For his career, TCU coach Sonny Dykes is 42-25 SU at home. In looking at NCAAF odds, Dykes, during his stops at Cal, Louisiana Tech, SMU, and now TCU, is 23-18 against the number as a home favorite and 42-53-1 ATS in conference games.
- For his career at Toledo and Ames, Matt Campbell is 30-29 SU on the road, 27-17-2 ATS off a SU loss, and an impressive 21-10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Iowa State vs. TCU Betting Picks
Interesting spot here, as TCU seems to be a true team of destiny. When digesting all of the Iowa State vs TCU betting stats, one may have a slight lean to taking Iowa State and the points (currently 10).
While we firmly believe TCU will win this game, the double-digit spread gives us pause for concern.
Who to Bet On?
The Horned Frogs have been the cardiac kids all season long, pulling out game after game as time is winding down with their undefeated season on the line.
We don’t expect the magical run to end here, but we are taking Iowa State and the 10-points given Campbell’s metrics as a road underdog, and after a SU loss, they’re very impressive.
We are taking the Cyclones and the 10 points, hoping they’ll keep it close. It’s easy to bet with your heart sometimes and not your head, and the entire college football world is rooting for TCU to crash the CFP party and join the bluebloods.
However, they’ve been playing many close games, and this will not be the exception.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +10 (+110)