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College Football Picks

Navy Midshipmen vs. UCF Knights Best Bets and Prediction

UCF established itself as one of the contenders for the conference title by going on the road and handing Tulane its first loss in AAC play.

When it comes to Navy Midshipmen football, the program is starting to go through a dip. After being bowl eligible in 15 of 17 seasons between 2003 and 2019, the Midshipmen are headed toward their third straight losing season.

Despite not being quite the program the Navy used to be, the Midshipmen have once again shown they are a program people must be ready for.

Navy gave Notre Dame a battle last week despite being severely overmatched. When it comes to Navy vs UCF betting, this is a Golden Knights must-have to stay on pace for the AAC title game.

Navy Midshipmen vs. UCF Knights

The two teams will meet at FCB Bank Stadium, also known as the bounce house, for an early 11 a.m. start Saturday.

It is unique on the NCAAF schedule to see two teams playing before noon on a Saturday. UCF leads the all-time series between the two teams 2-1.

Last Game Record

Navy lost a non-conference game 35-32 to Notre Dame. The Midshipmen fell to 3-7 on the season. UCF beat Tulane 38-31 to improve to 8-2 overall, including a 5-1 conference record. 

Navy vs. UCF Analysis

Anyone interested in Navy vs UCF betting will see a lot of running from the Midshipmen, which can be expected considering their reliance on the triple-option attack.

Navy rushes for 237.8 yards per game, which ranks 10th nationally. What the Midshipmen have struggled with is slowing down opposing passing attacks.

Navy’s Offense

Navy’s offense hasn’t made the most of its rushing attack. The Midshipmen have only scored 22.9 points per game, which ranks 101st nationally.

Navy allows its opponents to throw for 274.4 yards per game, which ranks 116th nationally. That has impacted the NCAAF standings, along with the NCAAF standings overall.

Navy fullback Daba Fofana leads the Midshipmen in rushing, recording 635 yards and six touchdowns this season. 

Navy’s Passing Attack

Navy doesn’t have much in the way of a passing attack due to how its offense is structured. The Midshipmen have only attempted 121 passes all season.

John Rhys Plumlee

UCF has been able to win NCAAF games thanks to the work of the quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee is a dual threat, having passed for 2,015 yards and 12 touchdowns.

He also leads the team in rushing with 708 yards and 13 touchdowns.

College football injuries have impacted the Golden Knights too much. UCF is led by its balanced offense, which ranks ninth nationally by piling up 497.2 yards per game.

The Golden Knights are especially good on the ground, running for 249 yards per game.

Golden Knights’ Second-leading Rusher

RJ Harvey is the UFC Golden Knights’ second-leading rusher, he has piled up 615 yards on 84 carries and scored four times.

UCF running back Isaiah Bowser has been the Golden Knights’ go-to option in short yardage. Bowser has scored 13 touchdowns and piled up 557 yards on 148 carries this season. 

Odds Breakdown


NCAAF odds show the Midshipmen are 16.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 52.5 points.

Navy has covered two straight games as double-digit underdogs against Notre Dame and Cincinnati.  The Midshipmen are 6-4 against the spread this season.


The Golden Knights are 7-3 against the spread this season. UCF has covered three straight games against the spread. Their last two games went over the total.

Navy vs. UCF Pick and Prediction

UCF’s offense has been rolling as of late. The Golden Knights are also good against the run-on defense. If UCF can contain Navy’s triple-option rushing attack quickly, UCF should be able to win by three or four scores without any issues.

The Navy Midshipmen prefer to control the ball with their running attack and try to possess the ball.

While Navy may not have an easy time finishing drives against UCF, they should be able to sustain several drives with their rushing attack. When it comes to Navy vs UCF betting, this is a game that should fall under the total.

NCAAF Pick: Under 53 (-110)

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