Since its football program began in 1893, New Mexico State has been to exactly four bowl games. The Aggies made their first appearance in 1935 and then had a two-year run in 1959 and 1960, going to back-to-back Sun Bowls in nearby El Paso. Check our Quick Lane Bowl Prediction.
Then, it was a long time between drinks, generations in fact, as NMSU didn’t go bowling again until 2017 when they downed then #17-Utah State 26-20 in overtime.
Don’t look now, but New Mexico State can boast something none of the so-called blue blood programs can: an unbeaten record in the postseason, as the program is currently 3-0-1 in bowl games.’
Last Games Records
Heading into this season, besides first-year coach Jerry Kill, a renowned program builder, there was very little reason to optimism in Las Cruces. After all, since the 2017 bowl trip, NMSU had won just eight NCAAF games total in the next four seasons and lost double-figure games in the last three.
Bowling Green, on the other hand, experienced a ton of success in the MAC…..in the middle part of the last decade going to four straight bowl games from 2012-2015. Since then, just like what’s transpired in Las Cruces, there’s been a lot more losing and coaching turnover than wins and optimism.
Scot Loeffler, a veteran NCAAF offensive coordinator who took over in 2019, was just 7-22 in the past three years at the helm of the Falcons. The so-called experts didn’t expect much of Bowling Green in 2022, selecting them to finish fifth in the MAC East and miss the postseason for the seventh time in as many years.
As a veteran (and ailing) college football commentator Lee Corso would undoubtedly say, “not so fast, my friend,” as both the Aggies and Falcons took unusual yet successful paths to Detroit and Ford Field for a rare bowl appearance for both programs.
In this piece, we will arm you with all you need to make a winning Quick Lane Bowl Prediction, including a look at team and player stats, NCAAF standings as well as college football injuries.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green
Matchup Info
- Date: Monday, December 26, 2022
- Time: 2:30 p.m.
- Venue: Ford Field
- Location: Detroit, Michigan
- How to Watch: ESPN
The Aggies and Falcons have never met on the football field. NMSU is 2-5-0 SU all-time when tangling with members of the MAC.
New Mexico State Performance Recap and Analysis
It appeared to be another less than stellar season in southern New Mexico in 2022 as NMSU opened the year with four losses in a row, including a pair to Big Ten conference opposition, Kill’s former employer Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Kill got his first win at the helm of the Aggies in late September as NMSU took care of business and defeated Hawaii 45-26. After a road loss at FIU, the Aggies downed in-state rival New Mexico 21-7. After its homecoming showdown with San Jose State was canceled due to a tragedy in the SJSU program, a road win in Amherst, Mass. over UMass.
This gave members of the Crimson and Black’s loyal and underrated fan corps long-awaited hope. New Mexico State’s NCAAF schedule was limited. A win over FCS member Lamar, followed by a loss to SEC adversary Missouri, set the stage for arguably one of the greatest moments in Aggie football history.
Heading to Lynchburg, Va. As 25.5-point underdogs to Liberty, NMSU scored 28 first-half points and accumulated 428 yards of total offense on their way to a 49-14 shocker.
Following the win, Aggie officials successfully lobbied the NCAA for a waiver to go bowling since circumstances beyond their control forced the postponement of the SJSU matchup. Just for good measure, Indiana-based FCS member Valparaiso came to the desert, and NMSU won 65-3 to get win number 6.
Key Injuries
Quarterback Diego Pavia left the Valpo win but is expected to be at full strength. Aggie punter Josh Carlson, who averaged 40.5 a kick in 2022, will not play as he transferred to Arizona State.
Betting Trends to Know
- The Aggies are 5-1 against the number in their last 6.
- The Aggies are 0-4 in their last four games as underdogs of three points or less.
- Since 2018, NMSU has been favored just seven times, opposite FBS competition (42 games).
- NMSU coach Jerry Kill is 0-5 SU in bowl games.
Bowling Green Performance Recap and Analysis
While somewhat muted, there was minimal cause for optimism prior to 2022 as BGSU won four games last season, the most since way back in 2016, one season after now-Syracuse coach Dino Babers led the orange and brown to a 10-win campaign and bowl appearance.
The experts appeared to be right as, after a loss at UCLA, BGSU dropped a home game to FCS member Eastern Kentucky 59-5. Starting an 0-3 start squarely in the face as 17-point favorite Marshall, fresh off a shocker over Notre Dame, came to Perry Stadium, the Falcons won 24-21.
After a loss at Mississippi State, the Falcons caught their stride, winning four of their next five league games to vault into bowl consideration. After a blowout home loss to Kent State, a trip to their most bitter rival, Toledo, beckoned a renowned national media outlet to descend on the Glass Bowl for some Tuesday night Maction.
A two-touchdown dog in the Battle of I-75, BG led 21-14 at the half and scored the game-winner with nine seconds left on the clock to shock their hosts and punch a bowl ticket.
Key Injuries
No injuries or portal entries to report at this time for the Falcons.
Betting Trends to Know
- BGSU is 0-4 in the last four when favored.
- Over is 5-0 in the last 5 BGSU bowl games.
- Over is 4-0 in the last four Falcons games when they are favored.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Odds
Looking at the NCAAF odds, the Bowling Green Falcons are 3-point favorites. The game total has been set at 48.5. The Falcons are -157 on the moneyline, while those picking the Aggies will get +128.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Betting Picks
Moneyline
This game is NOT about statistics or past results; like many NCAAF picks, especially those in bowl season, this one comes down to motivation. The teams both spent Christmas in Detroit and likely will play a game in front of less than a capacity crowd at Ford Field.
While he has a reputation for rebuilding programs, Kill has never tasted victory in a bowl game and is 0-5. Both teams’ strengths of schedules are relatively similar. We will go with the Aggies in this one under the theory that they are the hungrier team.
Over-Under
Neither of these defensive units will be confused for Georgia or Michigan, while neither of the offenses can be described as prolific, each ranking 182nd or worse among all FCS and FBS programs. When thinking of our Quick Lane Bowl prediction, we will lean under 48.5.
Spread
Getting points with a team with something to prove is always a good thing. The Aggies are that side personified as they come in thrilled to be playing the 13th game and have a bowl patch sewn on their jerseys for just the fifth time in school history. We will take New Mexico State.
New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Score Prediction
Our final Quick Lane Bowl prediction has the Aggies of New Mexico State prevailing over the Falcons of Bowling Green 24-20.
NCAAF Pick: New Mexico State 24, Bowling Green 20.
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