Our betting analysis and predictions continue with the Conference USA Championship between the North Texas Mean Green (7-5, 6-2 C-USA) and UTSA Roadrunners (10-2, 8-0 C-USA) this coming Friday night.
Kickoff from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, is scheduled for 7:30 pm EST and will be broadcast on the CBS Sports Network.
These two last squared off in Week 8 of the regular season when UTSA scored a touchdown with 15 seconds remaining to give the Roadrunners the win and sole possession of the first place in the conference, something they would not relinquish the rest of the way.
This will mark the first time in the history of the game (dating back to 2005) that these two schools will meet in the Championship game.
It will be one of the more compelling under-the-radar NCAAF games on the schedule this weekend. Read on for our North Texas vs UTSA prediction.
Last Game Records
The two programs won last week by a combined seven points to secure their spot in this Friday’s title game.
North Texas came from behind in the fourth quarter to knock off Rice, while UTSA rallied from 17 down in the second half to stun UTEP and preserve their perfect conference record in 2022.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Analysis
UTSA was a double-digit favorite back on October 22 against the Mean Green, failing to cover the big number in the four-point win.
UNT finished the regular season 7-5 ATS, while UTSA was 6-6 against the number as both qualified for a bowl game appearance.
The Week 8 matchup featured just 58 points, coming in well under the posted total of 73 that day, though both teams finished their slate at 7-5 to the Over this season.
How will that play into our North Texas vs UTSA prediction when making our NCAAF picks?
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Preview
North Texas Mean Green Preview
The Mean Green not only secured their bid in the Conference USA Championship last week, sealing the victory with an interception, but they also denied Rice a chance at bowl eligibility.
North Texas got off to a rocky start, losing three of their first five games, but they finished their schedule by winning five out of their final seven to earn this spot.
They finished with an identical conference record as Western Kentucky as we look at NCAAF standings, but blew out the Hilltoppers in Week 9 to take the head-to-head tiebreaker.
This will mark UNT’s first appearance in the C-USA Title game since 2017 and just their second overall. They lost their only other chance five years ago, getting hammered by Florida Atlantic, who was coached by Lane Kiffin at the time.
UTSA Roadrunners Preview
Both of the Roadrunners’ losses came in the first three weeks of the season, with both coming against non-conference opponents who were ranked at the time in Houston and Texas.
But they haven’t lost since falling by three touchdowns to the Longhorns on September 17, reeling off nine in a row to finish as the only school in the conference with double-digit victories.
UTSA scored at least 30 points in all nine of those wins, led by Frank Harris, who finished second in Conference-USA in passing yards and third in touchdown passes.
The senior dual-threat QB had by far the best passer rating in C-USA and also contributed eight rushing touchdowns on the season. Harris may just live up to his Preseason Player of the Year hype after all, and certainly worth considering when we come up with our North Texas vs UTSA prediction.
NCAAF Injury Report
UTSA will look to make it back-to-back Conference-USA Championship game victories after they knocked off WKU in a shootout a year ago.
This will be their last game in the conference as they’ll join five other C-USA schools in an exodus to the American Athletic Conference next year.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Preview
As we look at the NCAAF odds, the Roadrunners enter this contest as the rightful favorites, laying 7.5 points to North Texas at the time of this writing with an over/under of 66.5 points.
The spread has come down slightly since it was first released, with UTSA giving eight. It should settle somewhere between seven and eight by kickoff as the Roadrunners are on a roll, but as we noted above, they only won by four in the first meeting.
North Texas vs. UTSA Betting Prediction
The oddsmakers adjusted from the last time these two went toe-to-toe, but we’re expecting another close battle on Friday night.
Who to Bet On?
UNT signal-caller Austin Aune also finished in the top three of all the categories we mentioned with Harris, and they’re the second-best rushing team in the conference, joining UAB as the only two schools that averaged over 200 yards on the ground.
There are no notable college football injuries to report.
This matchup isn’t one of the more compelling national games on the NCAAF schedule, but it will still be good football and worth the watch.
NCAAF Pick: North Texas +8 (-110)
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