Tennessee is happy to be back in the bowl picture, completing the regular season with a four-game improvement on last season and finishing 7-5. The Volunteers closed the regular season by winning three of their past four, including a victory over No. 18 Kentucky.
Purdue, which won four of its final five games to finish 8-4, also bounced back from a difficult 2020 season. The Boilermakers only won two games last season but bounced back this season by upsetting then No. 2 ranked Iowa and No. 3 Michigan State during the regular season. It is the first time Purdue has beaten two top 10 teams since 1960.
Purdue at Tennessee Betting Analysis
On the Purdue side
Purdue has shown improvement this season by passing the ball effectively. The Boilermakers quarterbacks have completed a school-record 381 passes this season, surpassing a record set in 1998 when Drew Brees completed 361 of Purdue’s 377 passes that season.
This year’s team is led by quarterback Aiden O’Connell, who leads the Big Ten in completion percentage. O’Connell, who has completed 73.5 percent of his passes, has thrown for 3,178 yards and 23 touchdowns.
O’Connell won’t have his top pass-catcher, David Bell, for the bowl game. Bell, who led the team with 93 receptions for 1,286 yards, opted out of the game to focus on the NFL draft.
Milton Wright has caught 57 passes for 732 yards and is the Boilermakers’ second option. Defensively, Purdue has limited its opponents to 246 points this season. The Boilermakers will be without their top player on defense, defensive end Georgie Kralaftis, who also opted out to focus on the draft.
On the Tennessee side
Hendon Hooker has settled into the starting role at quarterback for Tennessee, having thrown for 26 touchdowns and 2,567 yards this season. Hooker has limited his mistakes, only throwing three interceptions. Cedric Tillman, who has caught 57 passes for 931 yards and nine touchdowns, is Hendon’s top option.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 85th nationally, allowing opponents to gain 404.6 yards per game. The Volunteers allow their opponents to gain 5.22 yards per game.
Tennessee’s pass rush is led by Byron Young and Matthew Butler, who lead the team with 5.5. And 6.0 sacks, respectively. Tennessee will be without cornerback Altontae Taylor, who opted out to rehab an injured ankle and focus on the draft.
Boilermakers at Volunteers Prediction
Purdue and Tennessee don’t have much history with each other. The only time they met was in the 1979 Astro-BlueBonnet Bowl, which Purdue won 27-22.
This year’s Boilermaker squad had the eighth-best passing offense in the NCAA, gaining an average of 340.4 yards per game in the regular season. There is a question of how much Bell’s absence will play a role.
Purdue opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line swung to Tennessee -4.5 once the announcement of players opting made news. The Boilermakers still have their quarterback against a Volunteers’ defense that struggled all season. Purdue should be able to cover the spread in this one.