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Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis and Prediction

One of the intriguing college football matchups this week is the Big Ten Championship Game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan Wolverines. The two teams meet at 8 p.m. ET Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

These two teams won their respective NCAAF standings to advance to the title game, which has very little College Football Playoff implications unless Michigan were to lose.

Even then, only Clemson and North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game will be on at that time, so the college football schedule will be winding down for the day.

But the interest in Purdue’s passing attack against Michigan’s standout defense will be intriguing to see if the Boilermakers can make a game of it.

NCAAF odds seem not to think so. Michigan is favored by 17 points with an over/under of 52 points. Perhaps the moneyline for Purdue vs. Michigan betting is enticing if someone believes the Boilermakers can win outright.

They are +585 to Michigan’s -915. Of college football point spreads this weekend, the 17 points is the second largest among conference title games.

Last Game Records

An 8-4 Purdue team won its last three games to clinch its title game berth. 

That includes a 30-16 decision over rival Indiana, which the Boilermakers trailed 7-3 at the half. But they scored 27 points in the second half to win. Purdue threw for 290 yards, only ran for 98, and did not turn the ball over, while Charlie Jones caught four passes for 143 yards and a touchdown. 

Michigan improved to 12-0 with a dominant second half to beat Ohio State 45-23.

The Michigan Wolverines trailed 20-17 at the half and outscored the Buckeyes 28-3 in the second half to secure the East Division. Michigan threw for 278 yards and rushed for 252 more as J.J. McCarthy threw three touchdowns. Cornelius Johnson caught four passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns as the big play threat.

Matchup Information

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis

The two programs have not met since 2017 when Michigan won 28-10. 

The Wolverines have won four straight in the series dating back to 2010 when Purdue last covered the spread.

The under is 3-1 in those games, with a high of 60.5 points and a low of 51. The favorite in the last seven meetings is 5-2 against the spread.

This will be the first game when Purdue is an underdog of two touchdowns or more. This season, they are 3-3 as an underdog, including 3-2 on the road.

Michigan has been favored in every game except for last week’s spread upset over Ohio State. The Wolverines are 4-2-1 when favored by three or more touchdowns but are 0-2 against the spread when favored by 14 to 20.5 points.

Purdue Boilermakers

The Boilermakers have one of the best passing offenses in the country, college football stats show. They are 21st in throwing for 279.9 yards per game. Conversely, they are 97th in rushing for 126.6 yards per game. Their total of 406.5 yards of offense per game is 53rd.

Their 28.6 points per game are 66th. One key will be the turnover margin, as they only have six giveaways this season, tied for 41st.

Defensively they aren’t too shabby, either. They are 34th in holding teams to 347 yards per game.

They are 36th against the run, holding teams to 128.8 yards per game, and 59th against the pass at 218.3 yards allowed per game. They are 41st, holding teams to 23.1 points per game. They have 13 takeaways, which is 20th in the country.

Purdue has a couple of college football injuries to watch, including backup running back King Doerue, who is questionable with an undisclosed injury, as is defensive tackle Branson Deen.

Aidan O’Connell has completed 63.8% of his passes for 3,115 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Jones has caught 97 passes for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns, while tight end Payne Durham has 54 catches for 550 yards and eight touchdowns.

Michigan Wolverines 

Michigan played a light schedule but has dominated with a stifling defense and terrific rushing attack. The Wolverines are second defensively, holding teams to 262.2 yards of total offense, and third in defensive scoring, limiting teams to 12.7 points per game.

They are 11th against the pass, allowing 177.3 yards per game. They only have ten takeaways, though, which is average nationwide.

Offensively, they are seventh in scoring 39.8 points per game and 24th in gaining 459.1 yards of offense per contest. They are fifth in rushing at 244.5 yards per game. Their three giveaways tied for ninth-best in the country.

Blake Corum averages 5.9 yards per carry with 1,463 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. He’s been banged up and had to leave the Ohio State game early. Tandem back Donovan Edwards has been great, with 687 yards on 7.5 yards per carry and six touchdowns.

Updates

Michigan star defensive lineman Mazi Smith is facing felony charges for carrying a concealed weapon on Oct. 7. He played in all 12 games this season, including those after the original offense, which carries a felony charge.

His status for Saturday’s game is unknown, but should he be suspended, it would be a blow to the Wolverines’ defensive line. 

It’s unclear how that will affect Purdue vs. Michigan betting.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Preview

The public Purdue vs. Michigan betting numbers have 59% of bets on Michigan against the spread and 63% on the over.

After the dominant second half against Ohio State, known for its passing attack, it’s easy to see why. That NCAAF prediction is as data-based as any out there.

But Purdue has repeatedly shown the ability to rise to its competition levels.

The Boilermakers have a likely first-round draft talent at receiver and a quarterback, drawing NFL interest. Winning the turnover margin is the concern, and where Michigan could run away with it.

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Prediction

It’s hard to see a way that Michigan will lose this game, even if Corum is limited in playing time.

Edwards showed his explosiveness with two long touchdown runs against Ohio State, and Purdue now has to prepare for the long passes off play action. We’ll take Michigan -17 but may sweat it out to the end.

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