Our odds, picks, and predictions continue with the MAC Championship between the Toledo Rockets (7-5, 5-3 MAC) and Ohio Bobcats (9-3, 7-1 MAC) this coming Saturday afternoon.
Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit, MI, is scheduled for 12:00 pm EST and will be broadcast on ESPN.
This will be a fresh matchup on the college football schedule for 2022, as the two schools did not cross paths during the regular season.
Toledo emerged victorious in the head-to-head meeting in 2021, a 12-point win in the second-to-last week on November 16.
Prior to that, they hadn’t faced each other since 2017, when Ohio won in a rout, but that did not prevent the Rockets from appearing in, and winning, the MAC Championship that year.
This will mark the first time since the game’s inception (1997) that Toledo and Ohio will meet in the conference championship. Continue reading for our Toledo vs Ohio prediction.
Toledo vs. Ohio Odds
As we look at college football point spreads this weekend, we find the Rockets favored in this one by 1.5 with an over/under of 55.5 points.
Both dropped considerably from when it originally opened, as Toledo had been a 3.5-point favorite, with the total posted at 61.5.
Sharps jumped all over the Under when it became a potential reality that both teams would be without their starting quarterbacks.
When it comes to college football injuries, these have had as big an impact as any in the country.
Toledo vs. Ohio Betting Preview
These two programs have taken opposite paths to the title tilt this weekend. Ohio used a four-touchdown second quarter to propel them to a victory over Bowling Green to lock up the MAC East, while Toledo has backed their way in, dropping their final two games of the regular season.
The Bobcats tore apart Bowling Green, and the Rockets lost by six to Western Michigan in both schools’ regular-season finales. Check out all the NCAAF standings as the season winds down.
Not only did Toledo fall in their two most recent matchups, they struggled ATS all year long as well. The Rockets were 7-5 SU, but against the number, they were just 4-8 and 1-5 ATS away from home.
Ohio, on the other hand, was an impressive 9-3 ATS this season and, as noted, 9-3 SU, finishing with the most wins in the entire conference.
The lone two losses on the Toledo Rockets football schedule through the middle of October were of the out-of-conference variety, one to San Diego State and the other to national power Ohio State.
Toledo was cruising along nicely at 5-2 but lost three of their final five games to close out their regular-season slate in disappointing fashion.
Part of that was due to the fact they’ve been without their starting quarterback for some of this stretch. Dequan Finn is battling an ankle injury that might keep him out of the title game, forcing the Rockets once again to turn to Tucker Gleason.
Toledo earned this bid, as it turns out, by virtue of their win over Eastern Michigan way back on October 29, the head-to-head tiebreaker that catapulted them to the MAC West crown.
The Rockets aren’t the only team in this MAC Championship that could be down to their backup signal-caller. But in Ohio’s case, it’s a certainty.
Offensive Player of the Year in the Conference
The Bobcats lost Kurtis Rourke to a knee injury last week, and he’ll, unfortunately, miss the remainder of a season in which he’s projected to win the Offensive Player of the Year in the conference.
They’ll turn to CJ Harris, who stepped in for Rourke in the Ohio Bobcats game against Bowling Green and did most of his damage with his legs, rushing for three scores in the 24-point victory.
The green and white will lose a lot with Rourke out, but Harris offers a completely different offensive style for Toledo to game plan for.
Toledo’s Seventh Appearance
This is Toledo’s seventh appearance in the MAC Championship, the second-most of any school in the conference, behind only Northern Illinois, who has played in the game nine times.
This is Ohio’s fifth trip to the title game, and they’ll be looking to get the monkey off their back, having lost all four previous times.
Toledo vs. Ohio Betting Preview
This is one of the more fascinating college football matchups of the weekend, if not one of the more underrated.
Rourke led the MAC in every major statistical category for QBs when you check out college football stats, and even though Finn finished third in the conference in touchdown passes, the drop-off from Finn to Gleason isn’t as steep as what Ohio is dealing with.
Ohio might have been the better team in the regular season, but that was with Rourke leading the way. That all changes on Saturday.
Our Toledo vs Ohio prediction sees the Rockets celebrating in the Motor City.
NCAAF Pick: Toledo -1.5 (-110)