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College Football Picks

Valparaiso Beacons vs. New Mexico State Aggies Betting Analysis and Prediction

In the final week of the 2022 regular season, a Pioneer League representative, Valparaiso Beacons, is going to take on an independent New Mexico State Aggies. Both football teams are sitting at a 5-6 record this season. 

Before we make a Valparaiso vs New Mexico State prediction, let’s break down one of the interesting college football matchups this week on the NCAAF schedule.

Last Game Records

Valparaiso is coming off a 24-0 loss to Drake on November 19. 

Last week, New Mexico State knocked off Liberty University by a score of 49-14.

Matchup Information

Valparaiso vs. New Mexico State Betting Analysis

Valparaiso Beacons

The Beacons are part of the Pioneer League in NCAA D-1 college football. This conference doesn’t allow athletic scholarships to any of their teams, which puts them at a disadvantage over the bigger D-1 universities. 

Valparaiso has a pretty solid passing game, totaling over 2400 passing yards this season with 17 touchdowns. The Beacons are also heating up to finish the season strong, going 3-2 in their last five games, including 3-2 against the spread. In those five games, they have hit the over on total points in every win, meaning they like to get into high-scoring games.

They have hit the over on total points in 7 games this season. The defense is not a strong point of Valparaiso statistically, and they seem to feel comfortable in a shootout when they get the ball back quickly to get in a rhythm offensively. They also have a great running back named Aaron Dawson, who has 1187 yards and 10 TDs this season.

New Mexico State Aggies

New Mexico State is an independent school this season, so they don’t have any college football standings to worry about. After starting the season 0-4, getting six wins to finish off the 2022 campaign and being bowl-eligible would be an awesome way to go into the offseason for the Aggies.

The offense has been the problem for the Aggies all season. They are ranked 125th in total offense this year. Head coach Jerry Kill has been searching for his go-to players all season and will continue that search to get consistent play out of his weapons into the 2023 season. 

The Aggies are coming off one of the biggest upsets on paper of the 2022 season. They just beat Liberty last weekend after going into that game as +1350 underdogs. They had a +24 point spread as well. The momentum that this team has right now might be way too much for a Pioneer League team to come in and beat them.


The only report of the college football injuries for this game is NMSU wide receiver Dominic Gicinto is out of the season with an arm injury.  

Valparaiso Beacons vs. New Mexico State Aggies Betting Preview

There are currently no NCAAF odds set on this game. We are not sure what sportsbooks will pick this game up with a Pioneer League team being involved, but keep your eye on all the major books as the week goes by.

College football odds are very interesting, as we saw last week, with the Aggies having a +24-point spread against Liberty and then beating them by 35 points. We have no idea what the spread will be for this matchup, but we assume that New Mexico State will be favorites because of strength of schedule.

With the lack of information, it will be tough to make a Valparaiso vs New Mexico State prediction, but we can still break down both teams. New Mexico State is going to have bigger and faster athletes on their side, but the team identity hasn’t been there all season. 

Valparaiso is going to struggle with possession and getting off of the field defensively on third down, but if this game ends up being a shootout, it favors the Valpo guys. The Beacons thrive in high-scoring games, but will it be tough to score against a battle-tested New Mexico State defense?

Valparaiso vs. New Mexico State Betting Prediction

In the final week of the NCAA football schedule before the postseason starts, this is an under-the-radar game. Valparaiso is a small school going up against a struggling program that doesn’t even have a conference to call home. 

The official Valparaiso vs New Mexico State prediction is that the Aggies come away with a victory. I am guessing it will be an ugly game at times, with turnovers forced by the Aggies and then leading to them giving the ball back to Valpo.

But the strength of schedule and the run the Aggies are on right now in the season will be too much for a Valparaiso team to be able to beat.

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